TOKYO
- The United Nations humanitarian coordinator for North
Korea has warned that the World Food Program is at risk
of running out of food in October - traditionally a lean
period for food in the country.
Like much of
North Korea's economy, the agricultural sector had been
in slow decline since the 1980s following three decades
of ill-advised policies that blindly pursued
agricultural juche (self-reliance). The result
was overuse of fertilizers, unsuitable crop choices,
deforestation of hillsides and collectivized farms. But
it was the floods of the mid-1990s that pushed northern
agriculture over the edge, with food self-sufficiency
hitting a nadir - about 60% what it had been in 1996.
Since then, North Korea, with the help of
foreign non-governmental organizations, has made efforts
at reforming its agricultural sector to increase
harvests and stimulate the agro economy. Following three
years of good harvests, food self-sufficiency is now
estimated to hover at about 70%, with aid agencies
attempting to make up the shortfall.
Experts credit the rise in food
self-sufficiency to a number of factors: the loosening
of collectivized agricultural policies, tentative
liberalization of the agricultural economy, a switch to
organic farming policies and promotion of crops more
suited to North Korea's environment, and three years of
favorable weather. However, as torrential rains in
August demonstrated, the country's shaky agricultural
sector remains hostage to the vagaries of the
elements.
Baptism by fire or
flooding The government has loosened controls on
cooperative farms that make up the bulk of the country's
farms. Farmer teams have been streamlined from the more
unwieldy teams of up to 25 workers to seven to 10-man
teams. These "sub-work teams" can sell excess crops in
markets.
Kathi Zelwegger of Caritas, a Catholic non-governmental
organization (NGO) operating in North Korea, told Asia Times Online,
"Farms are quite eager to plant a greater variety of
cash crops." On a recent trip to the country, one farm
manager told her that cooperative farms were "becoming
money-centered" with more responsibilities being
delegated to sub-work teams.
The shift to a more
market-oriented attitude is attributable to economic
reforms in 2002, which liberalized prices of basic goods
to reflect more accurately their true value. This
baptism by fire in market economics coupled with
smaller, more independent farm sub-work teams has
resulted in farmers becoming more motivated to increase
production. As one North Korean farm manager explained,
"It is easier, but the responsibilities are higher."
But to enhance productivity, cooperative farms
in the North need further reforms. A UN environment
program report last month cited problems of
environmental degradation in North Korea. Excessive use
of nitrogen-based fertilizers and over-planting of crops
has taken a heavy toll on soil fertility. Economic
decline, lack of fuel and raw materials have crippled
what is left of the North Korean fertilizer industry and
the country is now heavily reliant on fertilizer aid,
especially from South Korea.
Ironically, this
may be a blessing in disguise. Fertilizer shortages have
triggered an increase in organic farming methods, a more
judicious use of fertilizers when available and also
spurred crop diversification.
The potato
revolution During Kim Il-sung's rule, rice and
maize (corn) were promoted as the dietary staples for North
Koreans, with the state going even as far as proclaiming
"rice is communism". In North Korea's mountainous
terrain, neither choice was astute. Maize was promoted
as the main highland area crop. But this ignored wide
differences in soil and weather in the northern
mountainous areas and the necessity of fertile soils to
ensure good harvests, contributing to excessive use of
fertilizers. Nor, unfortunately, is rice particularly
suited to the North's climate - only 30% of the
available arable land is suitable for paddy fields.
Indeed, the planting of rice on hillsides has actually
exacerbated flooding.
But since 1999, North
Korea, under Kim Jong-il's orders, has begun a program
of crop diversification and launched a "potato
revolution" promoting the humble spud as the new food of
choice for its citizens. By planting potatoes with other
vegetables or as a second winter crop in maize fields
(double-cropping), North Korea hopes to attain its
cherished goal of food self-sufficiency.
Reminiscent of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev's
sudden infatuation with maize after a visit to the corn
fields of Iowa in the US in 1959, Kim's emphasis on
potatoes for increased food security is a significant
policy change. Unlike Khrushchev's maize gambit, potato
production is actually a wise choice for malnourished
North Koreans. Potatoes are far better suited to North
Korea's climate, more nutritious than either rice or
maize and require a third less fertilizer than maize.
NGOs and Christian aid groups such as
World Vision and the Mennonite Central Committee Canada
have been helping North Korean scientists and farmers
develop high-starch, virus-resistant strains suitable for the
environment and hydroponic farming techniques. World
Vision estimates that new strains of potatoes that it is
developing may be able to quadruple production to 40
tonnes per hectare. North Korea intends to harvest 8
million tonnes of potatoes by 2006, enough,
theoretically, to solve its food shortages.
An unrealistic goal? But some experts
warn that North Korea's quest to solve its food shortfall
and attain agricultural juche is naive. Dr
Kenneth Quinones, a former US State Department official
who dealt frequently with the North Korean regime,
thinks the agricultural reforms have run their course.
He believes further increases in agricultural
self-sufficiency are likely to be small.
Even if North Korea improves its agricultural
production efficiency, it is unlikely to eradicate food
shortages. Agricultural self-sufficiency was a myth during
the 1980s, according to South Korean experts and is
even less likely today. Neither does diversification
mean potatoes have been chosen as the major upland
crop. Maize is still the major field crop, along with
rice. And while potatoes require less fertilizer than
maize, they still require a considerable amount of the stuff
- more than North Korea can produce. Without more fuel,
fertilizer and equipment, even the potato revolution is
unlikely to fulfill its potential.
While the North
Korean leadership has expressed contrition over the
famine and attributed food shortages to natural disasters,
these pseudo mea culpas do not mask the
reality that the food crisis has persisted because of
structural flaws in the North Korean economy and the
nuclear crisis. As aid workers point out, the limited
reforms, while being a boon to farmers, have created a
whole new class of the needy - industrial workers -
whose wages can't keep up with inflation. There have
been rumors over the release of 10,000 won bills in
order to keep pace with inflation.
North
Korea will have to wait some time before it features in
the Michelin Guide to fine cuisine. As one ethnic North
Korean-Japanese car dealer who had visited North Korea
recently told this writer, "The kimchi sucked."
Perhaps it's time to order potato dauphinois
.
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