The tortuous North Korean refugee
triangle By Bruce Klingner
The increasing flow of North Korean refugees
into South Korea threatens to hinder progress in
inter-Korean negotiations. The arrival in the South of
468 North Korean refugees from Vietnam in July, the
largest mass defection since the end of the Korean War,
led Pyongyang to cancel bilateral economic talks with
Seoul, denounce Southern authorities as "wicked
terrorists", and withdraw its ambassador from Hanoi. In
letters to the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees and the International Committee of the Red
Cross, Pyongyang accused Seoul of kidnapping the
defectors with the complicity of the United States.
South Korea quickly sought to counter
impressions that the major refugee arrival, along with
the subsequent entry of 29 refugees into a Japanese
school in Beijing, would lead to a degradation in its
relationship with the North. The South Korean
Unification Ministry issued a statement saying, "We hope
to quickly resume the suspended inter-Korean dialogue to
discuss pending economic-related issues." South Korea's
small and isolated but unauthorized nuclear experiments
years ago also have given the North its latest excuse to
reject a new round of talks on its own development of
nuclear weapons - and the disclosure has set back
North-South dialogue.
There are an estimated
100,000-300,000 North Korean illegal refugees currently
hiding in northeastern China. An unknown percentage
voluntarily return to North Korea after acquiring food
for their families, and a relatively few are able to
transit China to a third country en route to South
Korea. This effort stems from an informal confederation
of religious organizations, charities, non-government
organizations, and government agencies with varying, and
sometimes conflicting, goals. Although some
organizations appear interested only in the welfare of
the individuals, others seek to capitalize on the plight
of the refugees to bring about the downfall of the
regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
UN
officials are seeking to increase pressure on Pyongyang
to address long-standing international concerns over its
abysmal human-rights record as well as urging Beijing to
cease repatriating refugees back to North Korea, where
they face torture, brutal imprisonment in political
labor camps, or death. The UN special rapporteur on
human rights in North Korea, Vitit Muntarbhorn,
announced his intention to petition Pyongyang formally
this month to allow him access to conduct a probe of
human-rights conditions.
Muntarbhorn, a Thai law
professor with Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, was
appointed by the UN Commission on Human Rights in July
after its censure resolution accusing Pyongyang of
widespread abuses, "including torture, public
executions, extrajudicial and arbitrary detention,
imposition of the death penalty for political reasons,
[and] the existence of a large number of prison camps
and the extensive use of forced labor". He is scheduled
to submit a final report on human rights in North Korea
to the UN General Assembly next March.
UN Human
Rights Commissioner Louise Arbour told a news conference
in Seoul that she had urged China to protect North
Korean defectors rather than returning them to their
home country. She emphasized that China, as a signatory
in 1982 to the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of
Refugees, has "an obligation to protect persons who are
in a vulnerable position" and not forcibly expel or
return refugees to those territories where their life,
freedom or physical integrity would be threatened.
China seeks quiet resolution of refugee
issue The Chinese leadership emphasizes stability
as a lodestar of its foreign policy and fears any
turmoil on the Korean Peninsula. Beijing, therefore,
provides sufficient fuel and food aid to maintain the
continued viability of Kim Jong-il's regime while urging
its troublesome Pyongyang ally to implement
Chinese-style economic reforms to improve its economic
condition and its people's well-being.
Beijing
is concerned that any actions it takes to assist the
fleeing North Koreans, such as establishing refugee
camps or providing formal UN designation as "political
refugees", would provoke a torrent of additional
refugees, offend its North Korean ally, and perhaps
undermine the stability of the Pyongyang regime.
Despite its obligations under the 1951 Refugee
Convention, Beijing insists that the North Koreans are
"economic migrants", and it continues to adhere to a
bilateral treaty with Pyongyang promising to repatriate
North Koreans. Chinese authorities have forbidden the UN
human-rights commissioner from establishing refugee
camps in China or even visiting the northeastern border
areas.
Chinese authorities were willing to turn
a blind eye to North Korean refugees crossing the Yalu
River and overlook its treaty obligations with Pyongyang
- especially during the North Korean famine of the
mid-1990s - as long as the issue remained out of the
world spotlight. Chinese citizens in the northeast
remember the assistance provided by North Korea to
Chinese refugees suffering during the famines brought on
by Mao Zedong's failed economic policies.
As a
result of several highly publicized events during the
past two years involving refugees storming into foreign
embassies and consulates, Beijing felt forced to respond
harshly, lest it be seen as condoning an increase in the
refugee flow. Yet, at the same time, China sought to
minimize criticism of its own human-rights record by
conducting a delicate, if bizarre, balancing act of
surrounding diplomatic facilities with police and barbed
wire while generally allowing those who successfully
entered the embassies and consulates to travel to third
countries. On several occasions, however, China
blatantly violated international standards of behavior
by sending police into diplomatic facilities, considered
sovereign foreign soil, and arresting North Korean
refugees.
Beijing has also increased
surveillance of aid organizations in northeastern China,
closed churches suspected of assisting North Koreans,
stepped up efforts to patrol its borders, and offered
rewards for citizens turning in illegal immigrants.
South Korea firmly on the fence Seoul
has been criticized for its continuing reticence in
pressing Pyongyang and Beijing on the refugee issue out
of concern that doing so endangers its own engagement
policy with the North. Human-rights activists reproached
Seoul this month for Unification Minister Chung
Dong-young's comments that activists should not help
North Koreans to defect since it "could harm
inter-Korean relations". Similarly, Foreign Minister Ban
Ki-moon backtracked from his statement that Seoul would
not allow any more North Koreans to defect to the South,
claiming instead that Seoul cannot assume "unlimited
responsibility" for all North Korean refugee seekers.
Seoul has been historically reticent to
implement policies that would help large numbers of
North Korean refugees to reach freedom in the South,
despite public entreaties about pan-Korean brotherhood
and a clause in the South Korean constitution that makes
all Koreans citizens of South Korea. Since the end of
the Korean War, only 5,000 North Koreans have defected
to the South. President Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine
Policy", affirmed though hardened by current President
Roh Moo-hyun, sought to achieve gradual change in the
North and, as such, required smooth inter-Korean
relations that would be jeopardized by provocations,
such as accepting refugees.
An official South
Korean policy that was perceived as attracting large
numbers of refugees would risk offending Pyongyang and
undermining the policy. Moreover, an exodus of North
Koreans could cause a collapse of the regime and force
Seoul immediately to face the staggering cost of
reunification.
The North Korean refugee
"underground railroad" run by religious and humanitarian
groups is politically sensitive and Seoul has been
hesitant to announce plans for large refugee camps in
South Korea. A former senior South Korean Defense
Ministry official told this author that, although the
military had planned for such a contingency, the earlier
Kim Dae-jung administration had been loath to make such
plans public. The official commented that the
administration deemed it better to assist destitute
North Koreans while they remained north of the
Demilitarized Zone rather than assuming the costs of
integrating them into South Korea. Seoul sees
development of "resettlement towns" outside of South
Korea - in places such as Mongolia - preferable to a
large influx of North Korean refugees.
Seoul
also advocates a non-confrontational approach to
Beijing's harsh treatment of asylum seekers. The Korea
Herald editorialized, "It is problematic indeed that
Seoul still adheres to its 'quiet diplomacy' when even
foreign governments and non-governmental organizations
as well as the United Nations have defined it as a grave
human-rights issue, calling on Beijing to provide the
escapees with legal refugee status."
An issue
that won't go away North Korea's continuing
economic travail will serve to maintain or even increase
the refugee exodus. The UN's World Food Program
announced in July that millions of North Koreans
remained at dire risk because decreasing levels of
international aid donations were insufficient to meet
even minimal nutritional standards.
The number
of North Korean asylum seekers reaching the South has
increased dramatically in recent years and Unification
Minister Chung Dong-young estimated that 10,000
Northerners will likely enter South Korea in the next
several years, an estimate that may woefully
underestimate the trend. Patience with China's
intransigence has worn thin among human-rights
activists, and they are more likely to continue highly
publicized efforts such as pushing asylum seekers into
foreign embassies in China to force a change in policy
by Beijing. The US Congress has adopted a higher profile
on the issue with the introduction of the North Korean
Human Rights Act of 2004, and will likely press the
issue more forcefully with China.
Republican
Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the US Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, commented last year that resettling
North Korean refugees in the United States and urging
other countries to do the same could "spark a greater
flow of North Koreans from their gulag-like country" and
maybe "hasten the fall of the Pyongyang regime, much as
the flight of East Germans in 1989 helped undermine the
communist system there". Such public advocacy will,
however, affirm Beijing's concerns over allowing
organizations to assist North Korean refugees in China.
Bruce Klingner is director of analysis
for Intellibridge Corp in Washington, DC. His areas of
expertise are strategic national security, political and
military affairs in China, Northeast Asia, Korea and
Japan. He can be reached atbklingner@intellibridge.com.
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