Korea, US world views converge,
diverge By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON
- While the world views of both South Koreans and
Americans are remarkably similar, they also differ on
key issues that could pose serious future problems in
their otherwise warm views toward each other, according
to unprecedented parallel surveys.
Sponsored by
the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations and the East
Asia Institute of South Korea, the surveys found that
the United States public may be far less prepared to
support US military intervention in the event of a North
Korean attack on the South than most South Koreans
believe they are.
They also found that a larger
percentage of South Koreans cited "US unilateralism" as
a "critical threat" to the South's vital interests than
"the rise of Japanese military power" or the emergence
of "China as a world power".
Not surprisingly,
South Koreans tend to see North Korea significantly more
warmly than Americans, whose feelings are by far the
lowest in a sample of some 20 nations that included
France, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, and "Muslim people".
The joint surveys, which were conducted this
summer on representative nationwide samples of both
countries, posed a series of detailed questions designed
to ascertain the global outlook of the general public in
both countries, as well as their views of particular
issues.
The survey, entitled "Global Views 2004:
Comparing South Korean and American Public Opinion and
Foreign Policy," notes that ties between the two allies
have recently entered a "crucial period" that has tested
the durability and strength of the relationship,
particularly in relation to the two countries' different
approaches to Pyongyang's nuclear program.
While
the current government of President Roh Moo-hyun has
persisted in pursuing former president Kim Dae-jung's
"Sunshine Policy" toward the North, the administration
of US President George W Bush, breaking with his
predecessor, Bill Clinton, has awarded Pyongyang charter
membership in the "axis of evil" and has, until very
recently anyway, rejected Seoul's appeals for Washington
to be more forthcoming in the so-called "six-party
talks" with the North.
At the same time, the
Pentagon's plans to redeploy US forces around the globe
and in East Asia, including the withdrawal of one third
of its 37,000 troops from South Korea by the end of next
year and the pullback of US troops from the
Demilitarized Zone where they have acted as a potential
"trip-wire" against a North Korean attack for the past
50 years, have also created some new anxieties about the
future strategic relationship.
Despite these
sore points, however, the survey found that the two
nations' publics share similar world views in terms of
global engagement, threat perception, and Washington's
role in the region and the world.
Both publics
are outward looking, with a resounding 83% of Koreans
and a smaller two-thirds of Americans saying that their
countries should be actively engaged in and informed
about their countries' relations with others. Strong
majorities in both countries also favor providing aid to
developing countries.
Both publics show concern
about the US playing a dominant role in the world, with
74% of Koreans and 80% of Americans complaining that
"the US is playing the role of world policeman more than
it should".
Similar heavy majorities (83% for
South Korea and 78% for the US) believe that their
country should take part in UN peacekeeping forces if
asked, a particularly notable finding, according to the
survey's analysts, citing the much more hesitant
endorsement of South Korea's participation in the US-led
military occupation in Iraq.
In terms of
"critical threats" faced by each nation, both publics
ranked "international terrorism" and the proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction - in Korea's case, North
Korea's becoming a nuclear power and infectious diseases
as their top-ranked concerns, although the acuteness of
such fears appeared greater among US respondents.
From that point, however, their perception of
threats largely diverge, with half of Korean respondents
identifying "US unilateralism" as a critical threat,
followed by global warming (48%), the rise of Japanese
military power (47%), China as a world power (46%), and
economic competition from low-wage countries (29%) for
South Korea. On the US side, the major threats included
fears of immigration (52%), Israeli-Arab military
conflict (39%), Islamic fundamentalism (38%), global
warming (37%), and low-wage economic competition (35%),
and the rise of China as a world power (33%).
The survey found that South Koreans were more
restrained than Americans about the use of military, and
especially nuclear, power. While only 4% of Americans
said the US should never resort to war, 30% of Koreans
took that position. South Koreans were also considerably
less inclined to accept pre-emptive war. Sixty percent
of Koreans said the US should never use nuclear weapons
under any circumstances; only 22% of Americans took that
position.
South Koreans tend to look more
favorably on globalization than Americans, with 81%
describing its impact as "good" for their country,
compared to less than two-thirds of Americans.
The survey found that two-thirds of South
Koreans favor the creation of a European Union (EU)-type
community with China and Japan but excluding the US, a
result that the survey's analysts attributed in part to
the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. In addition, while
only 28% of South Koreans said Washington practiced fair
trade with them, Americans were much more positive about
Seoul's trade practices; 49% said South Korea practiced
fair trade with the US.
On the other hand,
Koreans feel more warmly toward the US than the other
way around. Asked to rate the temperature of feelings
toward different countries on a 1-100 point
"thermometer", respondents in both countries rated
Britain highest, but for the South Koreans, the US and
China tied at 58 degrees each. US respondents, on the
other hand, rated South Korea at a significantly cooler
49 degrees, behind Germany, Mexico, and Israel, and just
ahead of France. On the other hand, both groups of
respondents rated Cuba and "Muslim people" in comparably
low positions on the thermometer.
Despite recent
changes in the bilateral security relationship, South
Koreans remain generally remarkably positive about
Washington's role on the peninsula. One of the most
surprising findings of the South Korean poll was that,
while 31% of Koreans believe relations have gotten worse
since Roh Moo-hyun became president in 2002, a majority
of 54% believe there has been no change, and 15% say
ties have improved.
South Koreans see the US as
having an extraordinary level of influence on South
Korean policy, rating Washington ahead of President Roh,
their National Assembly, and the general public itself.
Moreover, the survey found that the South
Koreans do not appear to want a change in the
relationship. Asked to describe the most desirable
bilateral policy on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 meaning
total independence and 5 the status quo, the mean
response was 5. Moreover, a majority of 59% said they
wanted to retain or strengthen the alliance with the US
after reunification of the peninsula.
Nearly
four out of five South Koreans view the US as either
"significantly" or "a bit" beneficial to South Korea's
security, compared to 12% who see Washington as either
"a bit" or "significantly" threatening.
When
asked which of five countries or groups of countries
South Korea should most cooperate with, 53% of South
Koreans said the US, followed by China (24%), the EU
(10%), Japan (4%), and Russia (1%). "Many had thought
recently that South Korean public opinion had tilted
decisively towards China, a belief that is clearly
refuted by the results on this question," according to
the survey analysis.
At the same time, however,
South Korean respondents showed clear unease with US
unilateralism. In addition to 56% who rejected the
notion that the US should act as the world's policeman,
85% said the US should be more willing to make decisions
within the UN.
While nearly nine out of 10 South
Koreans believe, however, that the US would contribute
military forces to reverse North Korean aggression
against the South, that assumption is not necessarily
favored by the US public, two-thirds of whom say they
would only support such action if the United Nations
authorized it and other countries contributed forces.
Absent those conditions, only 43% say they would support
intervention with US troops; 51% said they would oppose
it.
As to the US military presence in South
Korea, 57% of South Koreans said the current level of
37,000 was about right, while 35% said it was too many,
and 8% too few. Fifty-two percent of Americans said
37,000 troops in South Korea were too many, while 34%
said the level was about right. At the same time, 62% of
Americans support the US having a long-term military
base there.
Three out of every four South
Koreans believe that North Korea already has nuclear
weapons and the same percentage believe that the
challenge posed by its nuclear program can be resolved
diplomatically. Only 3% say they believe military action
could be effective.
Nonetheless, South Koreans
do not rule out the military option; on the contrary,
80% said they would approve of US military action if
North Korea continued to produce nuclear weapons and the
action were approved by the UN Security Council, the
South Korean government, and major US allies. A similar
percentage of Americans would also support such an
attack under those circumstances.
The most
important factor in gaining popular support for South
Koreans is the approval of their own government and the
UN, while the most important factor for Americans is UN
approval.
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