PYONGYANG - As Pyongyang
pushes on with its quest to develop nuclear weapons amid
international opposition and growing impatience from
Washington, hunger continues to plague the real victims
of Kim Jong-il's policy - North Koreans.
Despite
experiencing its best harvest in 10 years, North Korea
will post another substantial food deficit in 2005 and
require external aid to support more than a quarter of
its 23.7 million people, two United Nations agencies
said on Tuesday.
A report by the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food
Program (WFP) projected domestic cereals availability in
the 2004/2005 marketing year (November-October) at 4.24
million tonnes, including milled rice and potatoes - a
2.4% increase on 2003/04.
However, it warns that
insufficient production, a deficient diet, lower incomes
and rising prices mean that 6.4 million vulnerable North
Koreans - most of them children, women and the elderly -
will need food assistance totaling 500,000 tonnes next
year.
Good weather
improves harvest The 2004 rice paddy harvest
was estimated at 2.37 million tonnes, up from 2.24
million tonnes in 2003, thanks primarily to favorable
weather, a low incidence of crop pests and diseases, and
improved irrigation in the country's cereal belt. Maize
output was unchanged at 1.73 million tonnes. Forecasting
total cereal needs for 2004/2005 at 5.13 million tonnes,
the UN agencies projected an import requirement of
almost 900,000 tonnes. Given anticipated concessional
and commercial imports of 400,000 tonnes, the residual
gap will be about 500,000 tonnes.
Most of the 16
million people receiving subsidized cereals from the
government-run Public Distribution System (PDS)
averaging 300 grams per person per day - half a survival
ration - cannot make ends meet. They turn to more
expensive private markets yet "they are still not able
to cover their basic energy requirements", FAO and WFP
said.
Aid still needed The report,
which followed a joint assessment mission by the
Rome-based food agencies in September and October, says,
"the continuing national shortage is still a problem" so
"external food aid is in part seen within the context of
overall domestic availability". It also noted that,
increasingly, "the most critical problem for poor
households is their lack of access to basic and
nutritious food because of declining purchasing power."
As a result, assistance to the food-insecure population
"should now be determined more by their household food
gap than the national food gap in cereal production". "A
balanced diet is out of reach for all but a few Public
Distribution System-dependent households," the report
says."The situation remains particularly precarious for
children in kindergartens, nurseries, orphanages and
primary schools, pregnant and nursing women, and elderly
people."
While the prices of state-subsidized
rice and maize rationed through the PDS have remained
low and stable, prices in private markets have risen
dramatically since the introduction of economic reforms
in mid-2002. Last month, rice cost as much as 600 won
(US$.56) a kilogram in such markets - almost 30% of a
typical monthly wage - compared to the 2003 average of
120 won; maize was 320 won/kg, up from last year's peak
of 110 won.
In September, one Euro bought 1,600
won on the parallel market. "The ability of low-income
families to obtain food from the market is severely
restricted due to their deteriorating purchasing power
affected by under- or unemployment and sharp rises in
food prices in the market," according to the report. An
unintended consequence of reform has been the problem of
higher food prices, which has been compounded by
widespread and steep cuts in already meagre wage
earnings as ailing enterprises in predominantly
industrial North Korea shed labor.
Food rations
meet just half a person's minimum needs The typical wage
earner's family now spends one-third of its monthly
income on PDS rations. Another one-third is spent on
non-food essentials - rent, heating and clothing. The
remainder is insufficient to purchase enough food in
private markets to meet the rest of the family's very
basic needs. Much of the population, consuming very
little protein, fat or micronutrients, suffers from
critical dietary deficiencies. Fresh vegetables and
fruit are either scarce or very expensive outside of the
July-September period.
Traditional coping
mechanisms such as animal husbandry, the cultivation of
household gardens and hillside plots, the gathering of
wild foods and transfers from relatives in the
countryside, afford some relief to hard-pressed urban
residents. Small-scale income-generating activities,
notably petty trade and services, allowed under an
easing of restrictions on private and semi-private
enterprise are other sources of much needed income.
Better farm machinery and improved soil
fertility is needed to deal with the chronic, structural
food deficit, and the FAO/WFP report recommended that
the international community enter into a dialogue with
the North Korean government toward the eventual
mobilization of the economic, financial and other
resources needed to promote sustainable production and
overall food security. The report also proposed
examination of investment projects on soil fertility and
better farm machinery to allow further expansion of the
country's double-cropped area. WFP has provided North
Korea with almost four million tonnes of food
assistance, valued at $1.3 billion, since 1995.
Despite the tensions over Pyongyang's nuclear
program, the US is also a major food donor to the North.
Should Washington adopt an even harder stance toward
North Korea and impose economic sanctions - a highly
likely possibility - the plight of North Koreans will
only deteriorate further.
(Food and Agriculture
Organization and the World Food Program.)
