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Asia wary of new Bush
doctrine
By Bruce Klingner
The new US foreign-policy emphasis
delineated in President George W Bush's
inauguration speech and Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice's confirmation hearings
concurrently have drawn praise and alarm by Asian
politicians and pundits already concerned by the
administration's perceived unilateralist
tendencies. The conflicting messages of activism
and restraint have led to confusion over the
extent to which the US will pursue a more activist
policy to undermine or unseat oppressive
regimes.
White House counselor Daniel
Bartlett commented that the speech was meant to
"crystallize the debate [to] say what are our
ideals", whereas another official described it as
"a bit of an acceleration, a raising of the
priority". But it's the acceleration that's
worrying Asia. In any case, attention has been
refocused on North Korea, not just raising hopes
for new diplomatic initiatives but also increasing
trepidation over potential ratcheting up of
peninsular tensions. President Bush's forthcoming
State of the Union address will be dissected for
clues on future US policy directions in Asia.
Asian media have alternatively praised
those segments of the speeches that pledged a more
multilateral approach and criticized those
passages that were seen as suggesting escalatory
and aggressive action against North Korea.
Questions remain in the region as to whether Bush
has embarked upon a bold US crusade that lowers
the criterion for military intervention from a
"clear and present danger to US national security"
to the less restrictive criterion of "gross
violations of human rights". If such is the case,
would these remarks serve as the initial marker in
a campaign of escalating rhetoric to justify
military action against North Korea, reminiscent
of the earlier and still ongoing military invasion
of Iraq?
Articulating a
vision
Bush provided a sweeping description
of what appeared to be an expansion of US
foreign-policy objectives, putting dictators on
notice that Washington would end "tyranny in our
world" while pledging to oppressed peoples
worldwide that the United States would not "ignore
your oppression or excuse your oppressors". By
declaring that a global "reign of hatred and
resentment" was a "mortal threat" to the US and
linking it as an magnifying the cause for the
September 11, 2001, attacks, Bush underscored the
significance of the policy shift. Moreover,
distinguishing between the leadership and populace
of foreign nations could be interpreted overseas
as having elevated human rights over unquestioned
dictatorial rule and delineating the manner in
which a US policy to "seek and support the growth
of democratic movements and institutions in every
nation" could be used to justify military
intervention.
Bush sent conflicting
signals during his speech as to how forcefully
Washington would implement its strategy, which has
been labeled by some White House officials as "the
Bush doctrine of liberation". The president
announced that achieving global freedom and
democracy was "not primarily the goal of arms",
that "America will not impose our own style of
government on the unwilling", and acknowledged
that "America's influence is not unlimited".
However, he also stated that "we will defend
ourselves and our friends by force of arms if
necessary", that "America's influence is
considerable" and "we will use it confidently in
freedom's cause". Perhaps the most telling passage
of Bush's resolve was his quoting of Abraham
Lincoln's dictum, "Those who deny freedom to
others deserve it not for themselves, and, under
the rule of God, cannot long retain it."
During her confirmation hearings the week
before, Condoleezza Rice prefaced some of Bush's
themes, having called for the need to use
"American diplomacy to help create a balance of
power in the world that favors freedom". Rice
expounded on the US "obligation to share freedom's
blessings" and pledged that "we cannot rest until
every person living in a fear society has finally
won their freedom". Whereas Bush did not name
North Korea in his inauguration speech, Rice
identified Pyongyang as an "outpost of tyranny"
and a "very dangerous power". She reiterated US
demands that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear weapons
ambitions and "choose instead the path to peace".
At the same time, however, she emphasized
that the United States "has no intention to attack
North Korea, to invade North Korea, that
multilateral security assurances would be
available to North Korea, to which the United
States would be party, if North Korea is prepared
to give up its nuclear-weapons program, verifiably
and irreversibly".
Speeches met with
suspicion
Bush's and Rice's remarks were
met by an international audience wary of US
intentions and skeptical of administration
assurances. The British Broadcasting Corp released
the results of a survey of nearly 22,000 people in
21 countries that showed that 47% saw US influence
in the world as largely negative and 58% overall
believed Bush's re-election made the world more
dangerous. The poll, conducted by the Program on
International Policy Attitudes and GlobeScan,
identified Asia-Pacific nations' negative views on
US influence, including: Australia (52%);
Indonesia (51%); South Korea (45%); China (42%);
Japan (31%); and the Philippines (9%). Asian views
that Bush's re-election portended less global
peace and security included: Indonesia (68%);
Australia (61%); China (56%); South Korea (54%);
Japan (39%); and the Philippines (30%).
South Korea sought to highlight those
aspects of Bush's and Rice's speeches that
appeared to align with its engagement policy. The
Yonhap News Agency reported that Lee Jae-joung,
senior vice president for Seoul's Advisory Council
on Democratic and Peaceful Unification,
characterized Rice as having sent a "positive
message" to North Korea and seemed amenable to
offering a "reward" to Pyongyang. Former South
Korea president Kim Dae-jung asserted that North
Korea should not be attacked for human-rights
abuses but should instead be helped to join the
international community.
The Chosun Ilbo
editorialized that Bush's call for an end to
tyranny was controversial because of the potential
means to achieve it and called on Seoul to
undertake a "leading role" to secure peace and
stability on the Korean Peninsula by directing
polices against both Pyongyang and Washington. The
Donga Ilbo commented that the world was closely
watching Bush's second term since US policies
after September 12, 2001, had undermined world
peace and stability. The periodical urged the US
to learn from recent past mistakes of "clinging to
its unilateral stance and exacerbating division
and conflict in the world" and, instead, should
use its power with "constraint, and listen to the
opinions of its allies".
The Asahi Shimbun
questioned Bush's advocacy of freedom given the
"large credibility gap between the president's
proud talk of ideals and the ground upon which he
stands", citing "divisions around the world and
rifts even in American society, throwing a
pessimistic cloud over the next four years". The
periodical warned that the US should refrain from
using military power without the support of the
United Nations and cooperation from allied
nations, hearkening back to president John F
Kennedy's inaugural address as an example of
humbleness winning global empathy.
China's
People's Daily carried an analysis of the Bush
speech, which it characterized as continuing
Washington's policy of "seeking hegemony and
maintaining the US status as the sole superpower
in the world", although the president will "adjust
his diplomatic means and ways" to repair allied
relations. It foresaw a continued "unilateralist
and preemptive foreign policy on the excuse of the
supremacy of national interest".
North
Korea's official Korean Central News Agency
predictably dismissed Rice's remarks as
"slanderous false propaganda" and characterized
the US as a "wrecker of democracy [that]
ruthlessly infringes upon the sovereignty of other
countries". Pyongyang warned that US efforts to
undermine countries by supporting anti-government
forces could lead to "open military aggression".
Refining the message
The degree
of international unease resulting from the
inauguration speech's sweeping goals and
idealistic pledges is shown by the White House's
perceived need to have several senior officials
play down the extent to which Bush and Rice
articulated an expansion of US policy. Several
senior officials have portrayed the president's
remarks as merely an articulation of existing
policy. Another official, however, called Bush's
speech a "a bit of an acceleration, a raising of
the priority".
State Department spokesman
Richard Boucher stated that the president's vow to
fight tyranny did not portend a change in policy
toward China and North Korea. Former president
George H W Bush made a rare commentary on his
son's administration by disputing that the
inauguration speech reflected a prelude to a more
activist US policy: "People want to read a lot
into it - that this means new aggression or newly
asserted military forces; that's not what the
speech is about, it's about freedom."
While some are fearful that President
Bush's and Rice's remarks reflect a bold new
foreign policy reflective of US ideals, the
administration's post-speech denial campaign may
have served to alienate Bush's conservative
supporters who were initially heartened by the
bold initiative. Moreover, the president's speech
will likely unsettle foreign leaders, such as
Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf, who
have been key allies in the US-led "global war on
terror" but whose rule has reflected less than
Jeffersonian standards of democracy.
In
any case, the president and secretary of
state-designate have refocused regional attention
on North Korea, raising hopes for new potential
diplomatic efforts as well as trepidation over
potential ratcheting up of peninsular tensions.
Bruce Klingner is director of
analysis for Intellibridge Corp in Washington, DC.
His areas of expertise are strategic national
security, political and military affairs in China,
Northeast Asia, Korea and Japan. He can be reached
at bklingner@intellibridge.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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