|
|
|
|
SPEAKING
FREELY
Forget Gaddafi, US should talk to
North Korea
By Yoshinori
Takeda
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please click here if you are
interested in contributing.
The
second North Korean nuclear crisis advanced to a
new phrase on February 10 when the Democratic
People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) officially
declared itself a de facto nuclear power.
According to the statement released by its
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the North Korean
leadership had manufactured nuclear weapons for
self-defense in response to the increasingly
hostile policy toward North Korea by the
administration of US President George W Bush.
Although it is uncertain whether the DPRK
really possesses such weapons or the ability to
adapt them as warheads for its missile systems,
the official statement by the government drew
expressions of great concern from the
international community.
The US government
perceives the nuclear crisis as a regional one and
consistently rejects bilateral negotiations with
the DPRK. Consequently, the six-party talks (whose
member states are the two Koreas, China, Japan,
Russia and the United States) have so far been the
only means toward a peaceful solution of the
nuclear crisis. Yet Pyongyang's recent suspension
of its participation in this multilateral forum
has made the prospects for the Korean Peninsula
more uncertain. The governments involved in the
six-party talks have once again recognized the
urgent necessity of restarting the multilateral
negotiations with North Korea that have been
interrupted since last June.
China, which
has played the role of host country for the
multilateral meetings, sent a senior official to
Pyongyang and has called for the immediate
resumption of the six-party talks.
With no
progress in negotiations, the United States seems
to be placing its hopes on applying the Libya
model to North Korea. Libya, which had been
labeled a rogue state that supported international
terrorism, unexpectedly announced its ongoing plan
to get rid of WMD (weapons of mass destruction)
materials, equipment and programs, and to become
totally free of internationally banned weapons at
the end of 2003.
Congressman Tom Lantos, a
California Democrat who participated in US
policymaking toward Libya after it abandoned WMD,
takes the position that North Korea can learn from
Libya's experience. He visited Pyongyang this
January and told the North Korean leaders that the
DPRK could make a bold decision, as Libya has
done. The voluntary disclosure of the nuclear
program, the congressman argues, would be of
enormous benefit not only for the United States
but also for North Korea, because such an action
would open the way to comprehensive normalization
between the US and the DPRK.
According to
Lantos, dismantlement of the North's nuclear
program should be implemented within the framework
of multilateral talks, not through US-DPRK
bilateral negotiations, because all the
participants in the six-party talks have an
immense interest in this issue and in a peaceful
Korean Peninsula. Not only the United States but
also Japan and South Korea regard the Libya model
as a promising vehicle for achieving a
breakthrough. In addition, both Tokyo and Seoul
anticipate that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi
would act as mediator. Japan's special envoy (in
June) and South Korea's foreign minister (in
January) were encouraged by Gaddafi's urging North
Korea to follow in Libya's footsteps and give up
its nuclear ambitions. It is no surprise that
Libya's leader has demonstrated a cooperative
stance as Libya pursues its integration into the
international community. Nevertheless, the recent
development of the crisis shows that North Korean
leader Kim Jong-il has not listened to Gaddafi's
advice so far.
Contrary to the expectation
of the United States and its allies, the Libya
model is unlikely to work for North Korea. The
DPRK will likely be unable to declare a Libya-like
abandonment of its nuclear-weapons program. Such a
unilateral action would mean that North Korea had
bent before the constant pressure from the United
States and surrounding countries. Undoubtedly,
North Korea aims at an assurance of energy aid and
security guarantees first, and then the
verification of its nuclear facilities. Unlike
Libya, North Korea lacks a commodity in great
demand, such as oil. While Gaddafi can barter his
cooperation with the international community using
oil, Kim Jong-il has much to lose by giving up his
nuclear card.
Even though it is
predictable that the US and other participants of
the six-party talks would give the DPRK "rewards"
for nuclear-weapons disclosure, North Koreans
will, by any means, try to avoid making a
one-sided compromise. Domestically, Kim's regime
needs to explain that its nuclear brinkmanship has
forced the international community to meet the
DPRK's demands. Pyongyang's attitude is
reminiscent of the first North Korean nuclear
crisis: the DPRK considered the Agreed Framework
in 1994 a diplomatic victory against the United
States. For Pyongyang, a Libya-like voluntary
relinquishing of its nuclear program would
represent an unacceptable defeat.
Special
notice should be taken that the six-party talks
are gradually losing their appeal for the DPRK.
The multilateral negotiation table had been in
Pyongyang's interests for the following two
reasons:
1) If the six-party meetings were
held regularly, the United Nations Security
Council would not pass a resolution imposing
sanctions against North Korea.
2) If North
Korea wanted to receive a non-aggression security
guarantee from the United States and energy and
economic assistance from China, Japan, Russia and
South Korea simultaneously, there was no other way
to proceed than by using the six-party format.
Negotiations have dragged on for more than one and
a half years since the first meeting in August
2003, however, and North Korea's demands have not
been met in any form.
The United States
and Japan stick to CVID (complete, verifiable,
irreversible dismantlement) of the North's
program. Japan wants to discuss the issue of
abducted Japanese citizens at the six-party talks.
As the six-party table becomes an unfavorable
place of discussion for North Korea, it is hardly
plausible that the DPRK delegation would declares
its intention to abandon its nuclear weapons
program at this multilateral meeting.
North Korea is desperate to normalize its
relations with the United States. It is uncertain
whether even the demand of a "security guarantee"
from the US government is really part of the
North's core position. This requirement could fall
away should progress be made in other areas of
US-DPRK political and diplomatic relations. Kim's
regime probably calculates that once its relations
with the United States are normalized, relations
with the other member states of the six-party
talks, especially Japan, will move toward
rapprochement.
The North Koreans may well
ponder: why, then, do we have to make a compromise
in front of five countries, instead of solely the
United States? Thus the Libya model cannot be
applied to North Korea as long as the US dismisses
the idea of direct talks with North Korea. This
model requires active negotiations behind the
scenes, but at the present time neither Washington
nor Pyongyang is ready to conduct such
discussions.
There is no doubting the
significance of the six-party talks. If this
multilateral meeting cannot find a peaceful
solution to the North Korean nuclear issue
immediately, however, every possible means,
including US-DPRK bilateral talks, should be taken
under consideration. The current crisis has come
to a very serious pass.
Yoshinori
Takeda is an associate at the Institute for
the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University. He
can be contacted at yt75@georgetown.edu.
(Copyright 2005 Yoshinori Takeda.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click here if you are
interested in contributing. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong
Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
Asian Sex Gazette Korean Sex News
|
|
|
