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Some good signs in North Korean
crisis
By Jaewoo Choo
SEOUL - South Korean President Roh
Moo-hyun still seeks to engage bellicose North
Korea, which claims to have nuclear arms and
spurns disarmament talks, but he has won kudos for
a recent national address in which he promised to
uphold his stated principles that Pyongyang's
possession of nuclear weapons would not be
tolerated.
He promised to be flexible -
something that has worried Western observers - but
he emphasized the need for a peaceful settlement
of the North Korean nuclear crisis and emphasized
that Seoul would play an active role in finding a
peaceful solution.
Representatives from
Seoul, Tokyo and Washington recently met to
discuss how to persuade Pyongyang to rejoin talks
on the nuclear issue. Political observers here say
that South Korea and the United States, sometimes
at odds over foreign policy and North Korea, were
more conciliatory than in the past. And they point
to the appointment of Ambassador to Seoul
Christopher H Hill as Washington's top negotiator
as a good sign that the US may become more
involved and flexible.
Roh failed to
deliver any new or more detailed plans to defuse
the nuclear standoff in his speech last Friday. He
re-emphasized the importance of resuming the
six-party talks aimed at defusing the North Korean
nuclear crisis by saying that "the fundamental
structure has not changed greatly, though an
unexpected situation has been brought about". He
went on to say, "I will deal with the issue
calmly, based on our consistent principles,
without being swayed by one incident after
another. I will have flexibility but will not lose
the principles."
After the speech, the
Korean stock market surged to 1,000 points for the
first time in five years. At a meeting on Saturday
of the three chief negotiators on the North Korean
nuclear problem (Seoul, Tokyo and Washington), the
South Korean representative seemed to be more
cooperative than in the past with his American and
Japanese counterparts. The meeting of the three
was convened in Seoul after the return from North
Korea of a special Chinese delegation, led by Vice
Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Jiarui, to
coordinate North Korean policies. China has been
urging North Korea to return to the negotiating
table.
While Japan made it clear that it
would like to consider tougher measures, including
economic sanctions, to be put forward against the
North, both Seoul and Washington urged Tokyo to
step carefully. They also rekindled their
cooperative spirit. Japan now seems to have put
off major sanctions (connected with North Korea's
abduction of its citizens), lest such punishment
would give North Korea another reason to stay away
from the talks. It has, however, required that all
ships of all flags entering Japanese waters carry
hefty insurance - beyond that carried by most
North Korean ships. While not being specifically
directed at North Korea or even mentioning
Pyongyang, it will have the effect of curtailing
North Korea's maritime traffic, or making it more
costly, in a kind of de facto sanction. It went
into effect last Tuesday.
Nevertheless,
resumption of the six-party talks still appears
elusive, although North Korea has said it might
return under certain conditions. Chinese Foreign
Minister Li Jiaoxing and US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice discussed by telephone North
Korea's stated willingness to rejoin the talks.
Two factors need to be addressed first.
One concerns what China - host of the
six-party talks and North Korea's closest ally -
will do to induce Pyongyang to return to the
negotiating table. The other is what the US will
do to create the "mature conditions" for
meaningful negotiations, as insisted upon by
Pyongyang. These conditions were said to be that
the US should not criticize the communist regime
or interfere in its internal affairs - apparent
references to North Korea's anger at Rice for
calling Pyongyang an "outpost of tyranny" and the
US Congress's North Korean Human Rights Act of
2004, intended to help defectors from the country
and those who help them escape.
It might be
wishful thinking based upon some educated
speculation, but it appears from recent
developments that there could be a change in
tactics by the US and China in order to realize a
fourth round of the six-party talks. China
certainly will have to rely on its long-standing
leverage of providing economic aid and assistance,
but it will have to rely more on the US for
political support. In China, ever since North
Korea's public admission on February 10 to having
nuclear weapons, the websites of
Pyongyang-controlled media are hostile and filled
with a sense of betrayal. Many Chinese are also
critical of what they consider to be their
government's appeasement policy toward Pyongyang.
Against this backdrop, the leadership in Beijing
is on the horns of a dilemma that only can be
overcome by political support from Washington,
especially if Washington moderates its heretofore
inflexible policy toward North Korea.
Perhaps cognizant of Beijing's current
dilemma, Washington appears to be shifting its
tactics, at least from what can be observed on the
surface. After the meeting by the chief
negotiators of Japan and South Korea, Ambassador
Hill, the US representative, said, "We have a full
intention to meet North Korean representatives
separately and discuss if it is within the
framework of the six-party talks." Indeed, if and
when the bilateral meeting is realized, it would
be a landmark shift by the US, which has been
unyielding to date, rejecting separate talks with
North Korea, something Pyongyang urgently wants. A
bilateral meeting could facilitate the "mature
conditions" demanded by Pyongyang. Furthermore, if
bilateral talks take place, especially in the
context of the Beijing-hosted talks, it would be a
big boost to the Chinese leadership, justifying
its economic cost in aiding Pyongyang in exchange
for major political gain.
The United
States' apparent willingness to hold a bilateral
meeting is reinforced by its appointment of Hill
to be the chief negotiator at the six-party talks.
The key negotiating position was previously held
by assistant secretary of state James Kelly. The
new appointment conveys how seriously the US is
concerned by North Korea's admission to officials
that it does have a highly enriched uranium (HEU)
development program, in addition to its plutonium
program. Now, making its ambassador in Seoul the
top US negotiator indicates what may well be
Washington's new approach. This is interpreted by
some analysts here as meaning that Washington now
wants substance and progress, instead of
symbolism, impasse and lockout. Never has an
American ambassador been assigned such high-level
responsibility in the course of the North Korean
nuclear-weapons crisis that erupted in 1994.
With Hill's appointment, instead of
watching the developments from afar, Washington
will have a high-level observer on the ground.
Hill will closely monitor not only the Pyongyang
leadership and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il,
but also other parties to the talks, including
China. Now Washington has a better window on South
Korean President Roh and his moves both to engage
the North and peacefully resolve the nuclear
crisis.
This state of affairs also
represents an opportunity for Roh to resuscitate
the dying relationship between Seoul and
Washington and restore mutual trust - if he keeps
his word about being flexible, while sticking to
his insistence on a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula.
Roh has alienated Washington with his independent,
go-it-alone policy, and by trying to cozy up to
his Korean brethren in Pyongyang. Washington's
support is critical for the success of the
remaining three years of Roh's presidency, if he
truly wants to achieve the goals stated in his
address - to advance his nation economically and
to solve the nuclear problem peacefully.
Jaewoo Choo, PhD, is a research
fellow with the Trade Research Institute, Seoul.
The opinions expressed in this article are his
own.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for
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