Kim's birthday no retirement
party By Matthew Rusling
OSAKA - As with any good drama, the Kim
family story in North Korea has intrigue, rumors
and suspense. And on Thursday, fans of this drama -
academics, conspiracy theorists, Asian and
American media - will tune in to birthday
celebrations to see what lies in store for the Kim
dynasty, now that Kim Jong-il is turning 64.
The uppermost question: Will North Korea's
leader name a successor? While he has said
leadership will be passed to one of his three
sons, he has been unclear on which one.
His oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 34, also
known as "Fat Bear", would ordinarily be the most
likely candidate in North Korea's Confucianist
society, except that he has always been a loose
cannon
who plays fast and hard with his father's money
and is known for blowing wads of cash on shopping
trips to China, as well as for drunken binges in
Pyongyang hotels.
He was snagged in 2001
trying to enter Japan on a fake Dominican Republic
passport, telling officials that he wanted to go
to Tokyo Disneyland. Currently out of sight, he
was last seen at an airport in Beijing, and is
reported to be on the run from assassins hired by
his stepbrothers' supporters. Stepbrothers Kim
Jong-un and Kim Jong-chol share the same mother,
who died in 2004.
The Dear Leader's
youngest son, Jong-un, 22, remains an enigma, and
no one outside of the Hermit Kingdom is known to
have ever seen his photograph.
On October
28, Chinese President Hu Jintao dined with Kim and
his second son, Jong-chol, 24. Some experts hold
that the decision to seat Jong-chol at the table
with the leader of North Korea's chief patron should
not be taken lightly.
Other experts say
Jong-chol, who previously had not been considered
a contender, was brought to the table as a
symbolic gesture. "It was a way for Kim ... to
[make] the point that [his] control over North
Korea is more absolute and more certain than Hu
Jintao's over China. The succession issue in North
Korea will be resolved on Kim's terms, when he
chooses," said Chuck Downs, author of Over the
Line: North Korea's Negotiating Strategy.
"Kim Jong-il undoubtedly believes he is
the stronger of the two leaders, and getting the
Chinese to let him bring his son to the dinner
seems to confirm that point."
The presence
of Kim's son was a matter of tactics, he said.
"Because of the influence of Confucianism in both
societies, Kim Jong-il could also expect that Hu
Jintao would be unlikely to raise contentious or
challenging points that might embarrass Kim in
front of his son. Therefore, having the son
present tended to neutralize Hu and probably made
him appear somewhat compliant to Kim."
If
any successor has been chosen, the secret is under
wraps for now. And Kim wants to keep it that way:
Yonhap News reported on December 11 that he
ordered a division of the ruling Korean Workers'
Party (KWP) to punish anyone discussing a
potential successor with life imprisonment.
"This is as much a domestic issue as an
overseas issue," said Rodger Baker, a senior
analyst at Stratfor, a private intelligence firm.
"At home, Kim wants to maintain complete control,
particularly at this critical time of economic
experimentation. He doesn't want foreign
interference in succession, or for foreigners to
try to cut deals with his chosen successor instead
of himself."
Some observers suggest Kim
will only announce a successor when North Korea has
significant achievements to boast about, such as a
diplomatic breakthrough with the United States -
though that now seems some time off.
South
Korea's Choson Ilbo reported on September 20 that
intelligence analysts in Tokyo and Seoul believed
Kim would formally announce his successor on
October 10 during the 60th anniversary of the KWP,
but the mystery continued when that event passed
without an announcement. Others now predict an
official announcement in 2012 on the 100th
anniversary of the birth of Kim's father, Kim
Il-sung, who died in 1994.
The Joonang
Ilbo reported on November 23 that Jong-un, despite
being young and politically inexperienced, has
been watched carefully by South Korean
intelligence analysts as a probable successor. The
2003 publication of a memoir by Kim's former chef
under the pseudonym Kenji Fujimoto suggested that
the leader didn't see Jong-chol as a fit leader
and Jong-un would then be the default choice.
However, some sources say ranking KWP
officials and the cabinet will be given badges
with Jong-chol's image at Thursday's birthday
celebrations. Also, the Chosun Ilbo, the
largest-circulation daily in South Korea, recently
reported that his portrait was seen hanging in
party headquarters.
North Korea
is geographically located in the midst of
power brokers South Korea, China and Japan, and
US forces are amassed at the Demilitarized Zone.
All players have an interest in a stable North
Korea, and Kim knows that if foreign powers
think leadership transition will trigger chaos,
they will be less likely to try to cause it. "Chaos
in North Korea is still seen as the most likely
scenario for some 'adventurism' with conventional
or nuclear weapons," Baker said.
In one of
history's most tightly controlled dictatorships,
Kim has remained in power through constant
reference to his family line. "His legitimacy is
based on the lingering respect for his father,"
Baker explained. "This is also, perhaps, why he
keeps his next-in-line out of site - to keep
himself enshrined and base his son's legitimacy on
himself."
Indeed, pictures of Kim's father still
hang from buildings in Pyongyang, and citizens
wear a pin bearing his image. Visitors to North
Korea as recently as October noted that pictures
of Kim Jong-il were not seen without those of his
father.
While excruciatingly slow, North
Korea is in the midst of a period of economic
change. Economic and social ties to South Korea
are slowly increasing, as well as openings for
American tourists. "Experimental" (free market)
economic zones have also opened up, although they
are effectively sealed off from the rest of the
country.
Experts point to changes in North Korea's
propaganda, once known for its Stalinesque demonization
of the United States and South Korea, as
evidence of its willingness to start dealing with
the outside world.
They have already
stopped talking about the South Koreans as the
"puppet regime", and the anti-South Korea posters
have been replaced with flowers and smiling
children embracing one Korea. Now the anti-US
posters are fading as well, and the Americans are
being invited in as tourists, Baker said.
But change is strictly curtailed, and
observers say Kim is keenly aware that, with any
significant economic change, comes other changes.
"Kim wants the benefits of foreign economic and
technological investment without changing the
basic structure of society or the core political
control," Baker said. North Korea, he explained,
is a keen political observer, having seen Russia's
failure to maintain political control while
effectively managing economic changes, as well as
the strains on China.
Downs said Kim had
banned all freedom of assembly, even going so far
as to forbid alumni organizations, because any ad
hoc assembly posed a threat to his absolute power.
"Kim Jong-il has understood from the
earliest years of his life that he must be
ruthless in order to survive," he said. "Like the
offspring of other tyrants in history, he was born
into a dangerous world - he must rely on coercion
to control his people and must demand the
appearance of absolute loyalty ... To do otherwise
would allow an opening for dissent that would
likely lead to his own death."
Kim,
meanwhile, will celebrate this birthday much the
way he has spent others recently - at odds with
the US and much of Western world. Despite that,
Pyongyang will be decorated, and choir
performances and shows are under way to mark the
event, said to be one of North Korea's biggest
national holidays.
Matthew
Rusling is a freelance writer in Osaka. He can
be reached atmjrjapan@yahoo.com .
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