South Korea's fractious path
ahead By Bruce Klingner
The South Korean political system will
remain divided throughout 2006 between warring
progressives and conservatives, impeding Seoul's
ability to implement policies to address foreign
investor concerns and regional security
challenges.
Questions remain over South
Korea's economic policy, with business advocates
calling on Seoul to reduce inhibiting regulations,
overcome bureaucratic resistance to marketization
and articulate its strategy toward foreign
investment. Seoul's relations with the US and
Japan will remain strained and the
country has yet to achieve
national consensus on the future form of South
Korean society and its role in northeast Asia.
President Roh Moo-hyun's political influence is
declining, brought on in part by his abrogating
some powers early in his presidency,which has
increased the relative power of the National
Assembly. As the legislature becomes a more
co-equal branch of government, it will
increasingly be able to constrain the president.
Yet, the legislature will remain largely
deadlocked by partisanship. Political differences
will become even greater as the parties strive to
distinguish themselves to an increasingly
apathetic electorate during the run-up to the
nationwide local elections in May and the December
2007 presidential election.
Neither the
ruling Uri Party nor main opposition Grand
National Party (GNP) will gain the support of a
majority of the legislature or electorate.
Moreover, the Uri Party is likely to split after
the May elections due to growing internal
factionalism. As a result, government policies
will continue to be reactive and inconsistent, and
partisan confrontation will substitute for
political dialogue.
Politics will dominate
debate over controversial issues such as tax
increases, trade negotiations, regional
development, foreign relations and inter-Korean
engagement. While the national economic recovery
is gaining sufficient momentum to be less
sensitive to short-term political fluctuations, it
will remain susceptible to business concerns over
legislative gridlock and political volatility.
Uri Party beset by
infighting The Uri Party will continue to
suffer from Roh's low approval ratings as well as
continued infighting between its two diametrically
opposed factions. The party, born in 2003 as a
result of a schism with its parent Millennium
Democratic Party (MDP), has always been a tenuous
confederation of "progressives" (or reform
ideologues) who advocate extensive societal reform
and "pragmatists" (or fundamentalists) who promote
mainstream liberal policies.
The party's
resounding defeat in the past two by-elections -
it failed to win a single seat - has exacerbated
party factionalism and prompted a struggle over
the direction of the party. Overlaid on this
long-running debate have been post-election
battles between pro and anti-Roh factions.
Ruling party combative toward the
president The Uri Party will increasingly
blame its low public support on Roh's failure to
address public concerns over the economy. Polls
have consistently shown that more than 80% of
respondents want Roh to focus on economic recovery
rather than his dogged pursuit of political and
social reforms.
Uri Party members were
further alienated by the president's proposal to
form a "grand coalition" with the GNP and his
appointment of controversial legislator Rhyu
Si-min as health and welfare minister in defiance
of party entreaties. As a result, members will
more openly defy the president in an attempt to
distance the party in the run-up to the May 31
elections.
Feuding among the presidential
Blue House, government and party will increase,
aggravating an already strained policy
coordination process, further reducing Roh's
influence. A Blue House official characterized the
situation as similar to the volatility that
existed within the MDP prior to the 2003 rupture,
which led lawmakers to secede and form the Uri
Party.
Leadership cannot counter
factionalism Despite the January return of
former minister of unification, Chung Dong-young,
and former minister of health and welfare, Kim
Geun-tae, to the Uri Party and Chung's victory as
party chairman, the Uri leadership - the seventh
in two years - will have difficulty preventing a
formal party split.
Political parties in
South Korea are fragile and transitory, having an
average life expectancy of only three years. They
generally are regionally based coalitions of often
competing interests formed around charismatic
leaders. As such, they have lacked a distinctive
party platform and lawmakers have switched party
allegiances to improve their re-election
potential.
The embrace of
conservatism Despite Roh's and the Uri
Party's difficulties, the GNP will be unable to
provide a viable policy alternative. Although the
GNP's surging approval ratings after the
by-elections provided a strong boost to GNP
chairwoman, Park Geun-hye, and her 2007
presidential candidacy, they reflect an electorate
rebuff to Roh rather than a shift toward the GNP.
The party has largely adopted an
"anti-Roh" strategy without presenting a
comprehensive alternative vision. Park will likely
overplay her hand, misinterpreting the elections
as a vindication of her conservative policy and
party stewardship. She will be emboldened to
continue her partisan attacks on Roh, but her
vitriolic criticism and the GNP's boycott of the
National Assembly over a school bill aimed at
forcing private schools to open their management
boards to parent and teacher representatives risk
alienating the electorate.
Near-term
tactics The GNP will continue to dwell on
political skirmishes rather than articulate its
strategies for ensuring economic growth,
attracting foreign and domestic investment,
resolving labor disputes and expanding the social
safety net.
The January 11 defeat of
Park's choice for GNP floor leader by the favorite
of Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak - also her GNP
opponent for the presidency - may reflect the
beginning of a decline in her control of the
party.
Moreover, Park has been unable to
bridge the gap between older conservatives and
younger moderates. Several younger reformist GNP
lawmakers have openly challenged Park over her
leadership, claiming she has failed to reach out
to voters in their 20s and 30s nor sought to
expand the GNP's powerbase beyond its traditional
Taegu-Kyongsang (provinces in the southeast of the
country) stronghold.
This faction has
called for greater influence by younger members
and criticized Park's economic policies, including
her advocacy of tax cuts. The party remains
divided but it is not likely to split.
Looking right The GNP will
attempt to broaden its appeal to the populace by
gaining support from the "New Right", a nascent
but growing political movement. The New Right
originated as an amorphous coalition of academics,
religious leaders and civic group members that
espouse a theory of "rational conservatism".
This group rejects both the liberalism of
the Roh administration and the traditional
conservative camp, which is inexorably linked in
the public's mind to the corrupt practices of
South Korea's authoritarian regimes.
Although members of this group are
predominantly in their 30s and 40s, it rejects the
progressive philosophy of the "386 generation"
(those in their 30s, educated in the 1980s and
born in the 1960s). In many ways, however, the New
Right is less a case of what it stands for than
what it stands against, namely Roh and his attempt
to transform South Korea into more egalitarian
society.
Lack of
cohesion Although the GNP will continue to
woo the New Right, the movement will not be a
significant factor in the 2006 elections. While
the New Right will see GNP entreaties as a
vindication of its vision, it runs the risk of
undermining its own credibility as an alternative
to traditional conservative elites. The New Right
will continue to struggle in 2006 with internecine
debates over whether to continue as an independent
ideological movement influencing the GNP or to
form a separate centrist coalition of moderate
liberals and conservatives.
If the New
Right were to evolve into a more tangible
political movement, it would represent an
appealing conservative alternative to the GNP in
the 2007 presidential election.
New
political party The formation of a new
political party in October is further dividing the
political system. Chungchong province governor
Shim Dae-pyeong created the People's First Party
(PFP) to resurrect the political influence of the
country's central region and serve as a counter to
the Uri Party, based in the southwestern Cholla
provinces, and the GNP, rooted in the southeastern
Kyongsan provinces.
The PFP will most
directly impact the Uri Party, which beat the GNP
in Chungchong during the 2004 national legislative
elections. Regional support for the Uri Party has
declined following Roh's failure to deliver on his
campaign promise to move the national capital to
Chungchong province from Seoul.
Although
the PFP is unlikely to win many legislative seats,
it will serve as a powerbroker since both the Uri
and GNP are dependent on other parties to pass
legislation. The PFP would augment its influence
by forming a coalition with other minority
opposition parties such as the Cholla-based
Democratic Party (DP).
Jockeying for
election advantage Political parties are
already focusing their attention on the May
elections, which will be the key political event
for 2006. Although no National Assembly seats are
at stake, the election will have a major impact
because 3,800 local government positions,
including mayors and provincial governors, will be
selected. These elections will determine the
actual strengths of the parties throughout the
country and, more importantly, serve as a litmus
test of the electoral views on the president and
parties. This, in turn, will have an indirect but
strong impact on this year's National Assembly
agenda.
Regionalism will
continue Political regionalism will remain
a dominant factor in South Korean politics,
despite the efforts of Roh and the political
parties to reduce its significance. Political
parties' support is based largely on core regional
constituencies. During the 2002 presidential
election, ideology appeared to trump regionalism
because the Cholla region voted for Roh despite
his being from the rival Taegu-Kyongsan region.
Had this trend continued, it would have
marked a further maturation of the political
system. Subsequent elections, however, indicate
regionalism will retain a significant sway over
the electorate.
GNP likely to win local
elections The GNP is expected to handily
win the majority of seats in the local elections.
The party currently holds 13 of the provincial and
major city leadership positions and 139 heads of
smaller cities and counties while the Uri Party
holds two and 34, respectively.
Moreover,
a December poll in the Korea Times showed 46% of
respondents indicated they would vote for the GNP
while only 20% would vote for Uri candidates. The
expected strong showing by the GNP will intensify
political disputes with the Uri Party and further
stalemate the legislative process. An emboldened
GNP will be even more obstructionist to Uri Party
initiatives but, since no National Assembly seats
will change, will be unable to gain approval for
its own policies.
Impact on
presidential race The Uri Party's expected
election loss will likely trigger a formal party
split with an anti-Roh faction seeking an alliance
with the DP and/or the PFP, creating a strong
Cholla and Chungchong-based party. DP chairman
Hahn Hwa-kap rejected any potential coalition with
the Uri Party as long as Roh remains affiliated
with it, increasingly the likelihood of an
anti-Roh split if the president does not leave.
Roh was the MDP's presidential nominee in
2002 but left the party, along with 40 other
lawmakers, after he won the election. Roh's
supporters within the Uri Party have argued
against a Uri-DP alliance, seeing it as a
rejection of the president's efforts to overcome
regionalism. The diminished Uri Party would face a
further degradation of its political and
legislative influence and be even more vulnerable
to GNP obstructionist tactics. The party would
also have a weakened power base for the
presidential election.
Although the
presidential election is still nearly two years
away, it is already casting a long shadow over
South Korean politics as the parties begin to
position themselves behind the presidential
candidates. The leading contenders - colloquially
referred to as the "six dragons" - are Chung and
Kim of the Uri Party; Park, Lee and Kyonggi
province governor Sohn Kah-kyu of the GNP; and
former prime minister Goh Kun, currently not
affiliated with a party.
An additional
"dark horse" candidate is current Prime Minister
Lee Hae-chan, who some speculate could be a late
entry to the field. Each of the candidates holds
sway over a political faction and the parties will
remain largely stymied from pursuing new
initiatives until the party contender is chosen.
A new alliance A Uri
faction-DP-PFP group would likely form the power
base for the presidential campaign of Goh who has
participated in PFP events. Goh has consistently
outpaced all Uri Party and GNP presidential
candidates in polls, though his lead has declined
in recent surveys.
The Uri Party will
designate party chairman Chung as its presidential
candidate. This will set the stage for a three-way
presidential battle between Goh, Chung and the GNP
candidate who would likely be Lee. Lee's
popularity has soared since the completion of the
Cheonggyecheon stream project in Seoul, in some
polls even surpassing Goh's ratings.
If
Park were to support Lee, it would make for a
powerful and potentially unstoppable candidacy. Of
these three candidates, Chung would have the
weakest regional and political base and be the
least likely to win the election. His decision to
return to the Uri Party may have been a mistake
since he will be held responsible for the expected
Uri losses during the May elections. Goh and Lee
remain locked in a dead-heat as the two most
viable front-runners.
Experience over
ideology Predominant presidential campaign
themes are already emerging, with the candidates
emphasizing their experience and ability to
achieve goals and a convergence of political
parties to the middle. The electorate is more
skeptical of ideologically driven anti-Americanism
and will seek a candidate providing a viable
strategy for improving the economy. It is unlikely
that there will be a recurrence of the strident
anti-American protests of the 2002 presidential
campaign, though all candidates will pursue - to
varying degrees - policies that are more
independent of US priorities.
On a
reassuring note for the business community and
foreign investors, the candidates seen as the most
progressive - Kim and Chung - have the least
public support.
Politics will remain
mercurial The political landscape will
remain unpredictable since there has been no
groundswell of support for any party, with the
electorate evenly divided between support for Uri,
GNP and "none of the above".
A similar
situation exists for the presidential candidates,
a December poll in the Korea Times showed the
electorate evenly divided behind Lee (23%), Goh
(22%), Park (19%) and "no comment" (19%). As such,
the political landscape remains volatile with a
large segment of the public potentially able to
unexpectedly shift its allegiance.
Bruce Klingner is the Korea
analyst for Eurasia Group, the world's largest
political risk consultancy. The views expressed
herein are his own. His areas of expertise are
national security, political, military and
economic affairs in Korea, China and Japan. He can
be reached at klingner@eurasiagroup.net
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing
.)
