Korea's ruling party heads
for big defeat By Bruce Klingner
South Korea's ruling Uri Party is expected
to suffer another humiliating loss during
Wednesday's local elections, accelerating the
decline in President Roh Moo-hyun's political
influence and making a party split more likely by
year's end.
Party chairman Chung Dong-yong
will be held responsible for the loss, weakening
his candidacy for the December 2007 presidential
election. Chung could even be forced to resign, as
his predecessor Moon Hee-sang did after poor Uri
Party results in the 2005 by-elections.
The main opposition Grand National Party
(GNP) should sweep the majority of the electoral
contests, improving the presidential
candidacy hopes of both
the party chairwoman, Park Geun-hye, and her party
rival, Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak.
Despite
serving as a litmus test for the political
parties, the
elections
will not, however, alter the current balance of
power in the National Assembly as no national
seats are being contested. That means the bitter
partisanship seen in recent months will continue,
impeding progress on controversial but valuable
legislation, including tax policy, corporate
reform and foreign investment.
On
Wednesday, South Korean voters will select
local-level political positions, including nine
provincial governors, seven metropolitan mayors,
232 heads of autonomous administrative units, and
3,631 members of local councils. Of these, the
selection of the chief executives of the 16
provinces and major cities will have the greatest
impact on the relative strengths of the political
parties.
These elections are significant
because they provide a mid-term referendum on Roh
and the ruling party. Poor electoral results for
the Uri Party will constrain the president's
ability to implement his reform objectives, since
he will be increasingly perceived as a lame duck.
An emboldened GNP will intensify its
obstructionist tactics in the National Assembly,
seeking to undermine the ruling party's
progressive agenda.
The GNP is unlikely,
however, to provide a coherent alternative policy
strategy, leaving the initiative to a weakened Uri
Party. President Roh, eager to secure a legacy
despite declining support for the ruling party,
may resort to nationalist themes such as securing
a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
GNP support is strong and
growing South Korean polls consistently
show the GNP with twice the level of public
support as the Uri Party. Public support for the
GNP rose even further because of a sympathetic
response to the May 20 attack on chairwoman Park
by a knife-wielding assailant. The GNP has
capitalized on Roh's low approval ratings by
framing the elections as a referendum on his and
the central government's inability to govern.
The Uri Party sought to deflect criticism
by depicting the elections as a "judgment on local
governments", highlighting corruption allegations
against 85% of local GNP incumbents. The Uri
campaign failed to resonate with the populace,
however, and a poll late last month by Munhwa Ilbo
showed that more than half of the voters who
supported the Uri Party in the 2004 general
elections planned to switch their support to
opposition parties.
In a desperate attempt
to reverse the decline in its chances, Uri Party
leader Chung apologized in mid-May for the party's
self-righteous attitude and inadequacy. Chung
admitted the party had failed to understand what
the public wanted, having focused on
"time-consuming internal discord". Chung convened
an emergency meeting on May 23 amid Uri Party
predictions it could lose 90% of all local
political contests.
The GNP will likely
capture 11 or possibly 12 of the 16 provinces and
major cities and carry the country except for the
traditional liberal stronghold in South Korea's
southwestern provinces. The GNP will win the
provinces of Kangwon, Kyonggi, North Chungchon,
South Chungchon, North Kyongsang and South
Kyongsang as well as the cities of Seoul, Incheon,
Daegu, Ulsan and Busan. The Uri Party will likely
win only North Cholla province and the city of
Taejon, while the Democratic Party will win South
Cholla province, and an independent candidate may
capture Cheju island.
Undecided voters
could swing several districts A May 21 poll
by Donga Ilbo and the Korea Research Center showed
two possible additional GNP victories. GNP
candidate Hyun Myung-kwan had virtually eliminated
the lead of independent candidate Kim Tae-hwan in
Cheju, potentially giving the GNP a 12th victory.
Even more devastating for the Uri Party would be
the loss of Taejon city, long considered a secure
ruling-party stronghold. The poll, taken after the
attack on Park attack, showed that GNP candidate
Park Seoung-hyo was, for the first time, ahead of
Uri candidate Yum Hong-chul. Taejon likely remains
a long shot for the GNP, however.
The Uri
Party would claim a sort of victory if it were
able to secure a prize in the capital region
(Seoul, Incheon, or Kyonggi province), the
southwest region (Kwangju or South Cholla
province) or either North or South Chungchong
province. A strong showing in the Cholla provinces
in the final run-up to the election could
influence the capital region, since they are the
traditional swing states in national elections.
The Uri candidate remains an underdog in
each of these races, however. Former justice
minister Kang Kum-sil, who sought to become the
first female mayor of Seoul, initially generated
significant media buzz and Uri Party hopes for
victory, but her star has since faded and she
trails her GNP counterpart by 15 percentage
points.
The ruling party is handicapped by
Roh's and the party's low popularity, public
perceptions that it has failed to respond to
electorate interests, internal factionalism,
competition with the Democratic Party for
progressive voters, and low voter turnout. Young
voters, who are Uri Party's support base, tend to
stay home on local-election days, whereas older
voters, who favor the GNP, vote in large numbers.
Even some Uri candidates are trying to
distance themselves from the party. Seoul mayoral
candidate Kang blamed her falling popularity on
the Uri Party and chairman Chung for failing to
articulate a clear economic policy. A poll late
last month by the Joongang Ilbo showed that the
most important issue for respondents was "ensuring
economic growth", with the GNP viewed most
positively on economic issues.
The 2007
political landscape A strong showing in the
May 31 elections will not ensure a GNP victory in
the 2007 presidential election. Although younger,
progressive voters, the mainstay of the Uri Party,
tend to eschew local elections, they vote in
higher numbers during presidential elections.
During the 2002 presidential campaign, the GNP had
what looked like an insurmountable lead of 52% to
29% over the Uri Party (then called the Millennium
Democratic Party), only to go on to lose the
election. Local elections also favor the GNP in
that the "anti-conservative" vote is split among
several progressive parties whereas, in the
presidential race, these factions may unite behind
a single candidate, in either a coalition or a
single party.
But the local elections are
still a high-stakes leadership test for both party
chairs. Either Chung Dong-young and Park Geun-hye
could lose his or her position, dashing their
presidential hopes if their party fails to meet
election expectations. A better-than-expected
victory for Park could propel her past party rival
Lee Myung-bak and former prime minister Goh Kun,
both of whom lead her in most presidential
surveys.
Both the GNP and the Uri Party
will seek to form coalitions with other parties to
improve their potential for winning the
presidential election even if the alliance
includes ideologically opposed partners. No party
has won a presidential campaign by itself since
1987. The most likely coalition would be the Uri
Party (or the anti-Roh faction in the likelihood
of a formal Uri Party split) merging with the
Democratic and People First parties to create a
strong Cholla- and Chungchong-based force.
The GNP, which recently merged with the
United Liberal Democrats, would have strong
support from Kangwon and Kyongsang provinces,
repeating the east-west divide of the 2002
election. If the Uri Party does better than
expected, Chung Dong-young may lead this
coalition. But if, as is more likely, the Uri
Party does poorly and splits, then former prime
minister Goh Kun would be the presidential
candidate. Current polls show a strong three-way
presidential race among Goh Kun, GNP chairwoman
Park Geun-hye and Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak.
Bruce Klingner is the Korea
analyst for Eurasia Group, the world's largest
political risk consultancy. The views expressed
herein are his own. His areas of expertise are
national security, political, military and
economic affairs in Korea, China and Japan. He can
be reached at klingner@eurasiagroup.net.
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