North Korean nukes have their uses for
China By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING - While it reproved North Korea's
readiness to conduct nuclear tests, China has been
laying the ground for what it considered
unavoidable.
The emergence of North Korea
as a nuclear power - the only other in East Asia
apart from China itself - is perceived in Beijing
as an evil that can be contained and even rendered
useful as a counterweight to the United States
military presence in the region.
Well
before North Korea fired its explosive salvo last week,
declaring that it was
preparing to carry out a nuclear test, China's
senior officials and experts had begun expounding
on the limitations of Beijing's leverage with
Pyongyang.
As North Korea's old
ideological ally and main economic partner, China
is regarded by the international community as a
chief mediator in the nuclear crisis on the Korean
peninsula. China has hosted a series of six-party
nation talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear
weapons program.
The last round of
six-nation talks, that included South Korea,
Russia, Japan and the US, ended last November
without producing an agreement. The North refused
to further participate, protesting against US
restrictions on a Macao bank accused of laundering
money for the regime.
Washington has urged
Beijing to exert its full influence on Pyongyang,
including cutting off its oil supply and economic
aid, to pressure it to suspend nuclear activities
and return to the disarmament talks.
But
Beijing says its perceived leverage with Pyongyang
is exaggerated. On a visit to the US in July,
General Guo Boxiong, vice chairman of the Central
Military Commission, told his hosts that North
Korea was a sovereign state and China could not
dictate its decisions.
In a similar vein,
a senior Chinese academic wrote recently that
Pyongyang considers its national interests to be
greater than its relations with China.
"It
[Pyongyang] will not give up the independent
guarantee of national security gained though
nuclear tests just because of China's concerns and
the possibility of China applying pressure on it,"
Shen Dingli, a scholar at Shanghai's Fudan
University Institute of International Affairs,
wrote in the website of the Nautilus Institute, a
California-based think-tank.
Shen further
speculated that a nuclear-armed North Korea could
prove useful to China's long-term goal for
reunification with Taiwan because it would divide
the attention of the US military presence in East
Asia.
Other Chinese experts have blamed
the US for provoking North Korea by refusing to
hold bilateral talks and imposing financial
restrictions.
While China joined in a
Untied Nations Security Council warning adopted
last week that a nuclear weapon test would attract
"universal condemnation", experts in Beijing
believe the government is unlikely to back up any
military sanctions against the regime of Kim
Jong-il. China, and Russia's reservations in this
regard is one of the reasons why the Security
Council presidential statement did not specify any
possible sanctions, they say.
"The
possibility of military action against North Korea
is minimal," reckons Li Dunqiu, an expert on the
Korean peninsula with the State Council
Development Research Center. "There would be
economic sanctions and Pyongyang would be forced
into a protracted state of isolation."
There is already a precedent of disarray
within the international community in response to
Pyongyang's provocative behavior. After North
Korea test-fired seven ballistic missiles in July,
the Security Council unanimously adopted a
resolution condemning the launches but failed to
agree on a set of sanctions.
China's main
worry remains that if Pyongyang tests a nuclear
weapon, it would provoke an arms race in the
region that would see Japan acquiring its own
atomic arsenal. That would ultimately affect the
balance of power in East Asia where China is the
only confirmed nuclear power.
North Korea
has now insisted for several years that it has
nuclear weapons, but a test firing would provide
the first confirmation that Pyongyang has joined
the club of nuclear powers.
Though a
severe strain on regional stability, the threat of
North Korean nuclear test has proved conducive to
getting the leaders of China and Japan to hold
their first summit in five years.
Riled by
repeated visits made by Junichiro Koizumi, the
former Japanese prime minister, to the
controversial Yasukuni shrine, where war criminals
and Japan's war past are glorified, China has
refused to have bilateral summit meetings with
Japan. But Beijing chose to put history aside and
discuss the possibilities of united policy towards
North Korea with Koizumi's successor, Shinzo Abe.
The threat of a nuclear test dominated talks with
Chinese President Hu Jintao during Abe's first
visit to Beijing on Sunday.
"Both sides
expressed deep concern about recent situations
over the Korean peninsula, including the issue of
nuclear tests," said a joint statement after Abe's
meetings with Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.
It also said both nations would "work
hard" to push for the resumption of the stalled
six-nation talks on the North Korean nuclear
issue.
Beijing and Tokyo however differ in
their views on how to persuade North Korea to hold
back from the nuclear brink. Japan has aligned
itself with the US in demanding tough sanctions
against Pyongyang while Beijing prefers to talk
negotiations and concessions.
Abe, a
nationalist who favors a more assertive Japanese
foreign policy, is widely known for his hawkish
stance on North Korea. "We have to stop North
Korea from conducting a nuclear test," he said
before departing from Tokyo on his first foreign
trip since becoming a prime minister two weeks
ago.
