Now that North Korea has apparently
brought its nuclear weapons program out in the
open, all sorts of forbidding rhetoric and
scenarios are being offered about what it might do
with its nuclear weapons. Since the UN Security
Council has passed a resolution imposing limited
sanctions on the hermit state [1], the question is
how far will an angry regime retaliate in terms of
opening up its own "nuclear bazaar".
North
Korea is known to have supplied ballistic missiles
to a number of Middle Eastern countries, so it has
clients who are
willing to pay high prices,
presumably in hard currency, for its missile
know-how. Of concern, too, is whether North Korea
will become a regular source of transfer of
nuclear knowledge to countries that have expressed
an interest in developing "peaceful" nuclear
programs. Finally, it should be asked whether
Pyongyang would be willing to sell a "dirty bomb"
to the likes of al-Qaeda. After all, both North
Korea and al-Qaeda share an intense hatred for the
lone superpower.
North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il might well be thinking along the lines of
A Q Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear
weapons program. Khan, by his own admission in
2004, at one time ran a nuclear bazaar aimed at
proliferating nuclear weapons know-how to North
Korea, Iran and Libya. It was never made public
exactly how far he got in realizing this goal.
What concerns the international community
is that North Korea's potential customers - ie,
countries which have conducted business with Kim
in terms of purchasing cruise and ballistic
missiles - include Angola, Myanmar, Egypt,
Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Rwanda,
Libya, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Uganda,
Vietnam, Yemen, Zaire and Zimbabwe.
A
report published in 2005 by the Congressional
Research Service stated that North Korea earned
about US$1 billion through arms sales during
1997-2000, which made the country the 11th-largest
supplier of arms to developing countries. From
2001 to 2004, North Korea did not make the list of
leading arms suppliers.
Despite UN
sanctions expressly prohibiting most arms sales,
weak enforcement and oversight could allow North
Korea to return to the market. To start with, it
could sell conventional arms, including ballistic
missile supplies. This was underscored when a
recent report indicated that North Korea had
attempted to sell missile technology to Nigeria
and Myanmar.
The US is most worried about
the possibility of the hard-currency-seeking
regime even considering selling technology to
develop nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles to
countries like Iran and Syria (assuming that Iran
does not yet have that knowledge).
Egypt
and Turkey have expressed interest in developing
nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes, as have
Morocco and Yemen. Even though there is no current
evidence to question their motives, there is
always the possibility that nuclear plants built
for peaceful purposes will lead to the development
of indigenous nuclear weapons.
It should
be clearly stated that no one is accusing either
Egypt or Turkey of having nuclear weapons
aspirations at the present time. However, if North
Korea can get away with converting peaceful
know-how to nuclear weapons development, more and
more actors could be tempted as well.
Finally, there is a high degree of
interest on the part of al-Qaeda to seek nuclear
know-how for the development of a "dirty bomb".
Osama bin Laden has been on record since 1998
depicting the acquisition of weapons of mass
destruction as part of his organization's
"religious duty".
Even though collusion
between the communist North Korea and a religious
extremist entity like al-Qaeda sounds unlikely,
what might unite them is a common enemy, the US.
while there is no evidence of complicity between
North Korean scientists and al-Qaeda, there is the
possibility that Kim's regime could be talked into
providing know-how, for a price of course.
The nature of global affairs in the
post-September 11, 2001, era is such that no one
can rule out any of the preceding scenarios. The
nuclear genie has been out of the bottle for the
past several decades. As countries' national
security is threatened - especially those not
protected by the American or Russian nuclear
shields - they might be compelled to develop their
own nuclear umbrellas. Israel has been a pioneer
in this regard.
India and Pakistan are two
of the newest members of the elite nuclear club.
Both of them had to crash the gate to become
members, and North Korea has simply emulated them.
As long as it is not persuaded to unravel
its nuclear weapons program, which could be
achieved by offering it legitimate security
guarantees, North Korea as a pariah state remains
a dangerous actor which could be looking for
openings to "strike back" at the lone superpower
when suitable opportunities arise.
Note [1] United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1718 bans North Korean
trade in materials linked to its weapons of mass
destruction program, ballistic missiles, high-end
conventional weapons - including warplanes and
battle tanks - and luxury goods. China rejected a
call for more intrusive searches of North Korean
vessels, such as those Japan plans to implement on
its own accord. The resolution will create a UN
committee to monitor the sanctions' effectiveness
and to draw up a list of individuals and
institutions linked to North Korea's weapons
programs. They will be prohibited from traveling
abroad, and most of their financial assets will be
frozen.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO
of Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria,
Virginia-based defense consultancy. He can be
reached at eahrari@cox.net or
stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear
regularly in Asia Times Online. His website:
www.ehsanahrari.com.
(Copyright 2006
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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