Page 2 of
2 COMMENT How to turn the
tables on Pyongyang By
Francesco Sisci
cause tension and
instability in Japan and in the region. If to this
one adds the Japanese drive to become a nuclear
power, the new South Korean nationalism, and the
reborn Chinese pride and nationalism in its rise
as a great power, one can see a sure recipe for
disaster.
Tension would increase with
every passing year, and as soon as China
approaches the instant of its economic surpassing of
Japan, Japanese frustration
could increase even more, as China glides high and
Japan slips back. It could be a strong temptation
to make up the economic difference with atomic
weapons.
Like a runaway train, this
situation can be stopped only if enough time is
granted. When tension will have reached boiling
temperature it will be very hard, if not
impossible, to stop it.
All this makes it
necessary to stop the North Korean nuclear program
now, and reverse it. The point is, nobody knows an
easy way to achieve this.
By one theory
the easiest solution would be Kim's "extraction",
which would cost less human suffering than other
approaches. But Kim holds his people's lives as
human shields as if saying: "If you try to do
something to me I am going to kill my people." A
very secretive web of loyalty surrounds him,
making it virtually impossible to plot to take him
away.
The option of fiercer containment of
Pyongyang's economy seems easier to achieve. China
provides some 70% of North Korea's energy, 50% of
its food; squeeze those supplies and you squeeze
North Korea. But this pressure by China must be
applied gently and in full agreement with all its
neighbors. It must be gentle because a sudden
shock could trigger a fierce reaction from
Pyongyang, which could bombard Seoul and shoot
missiles into Japan, something that would cause
the collapse of the Tokyo stock market, and the
slide of markets throughout the world.
It
must be in full agreement of all powers involved
in the talks, because North Korea might want to
start a game of pitching one country against
another, and China doesn't want to hit North Korea
on its own only to find all the other parties
cuddling up to Kim again.
If this can be
done properly, then Kim's test will turn out to be
a blessing in disguise. The agreement to squeeze
North Korea slowly into remission would create
greater cooperation on delicate security matters
among China, Japan, South Korea and the US. This
cooperation could be the backbone of security in
Asia for this century and could help lessen the
tension between China and Japan in those delicate
years of economic readjustments between those two
countries. Kim will have contributed to this by
being the sacrificial victim of this grand peace
process.
But it could all go awry. Kim
Jong-il, the old master of surprise and trickery,
could astonish us all by breaking this holy ring
around him by announcing that he has decided to
give up the bomb, that he will readmit United
Nations nuclear inspectors, and that he will open
a frontier to cooperation with South Korea.
However, unfortunately for him, he doesn't
seem as smart as he claims to be.
Francesco Sisci is editor of La
Stampa in Beijing.
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