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2 Korea nuke talks: Optimism is in
the air By Donald Kirk
more illegal actions". North Korea
has hinted before at that way out of the dilemma,
but the Americans may now be open to considering a
solution that saves face for all sides if they can
keep the talks going and move on.
An
understanding on Banco Delta Asia, according to
this scenario, may lead to preliminary agreement
on the basic issue of what to do about the nukes.
"If you have a reasonable expectation
level, then we can get what
we want," said Chun Bong-geum, a professor at the
Institute of Foreign Affairs and National
Security, affiliated with the South Korean Foreign
Ministry. "We know what the difficulties are."
Chun expects a freeze of the Yongbyon
complex to include the shutdown of the 5-megawatt
reactor and the reprocessing facility where North
Korea has been making plutonium for nuclear
warheads for the past four years. The US Central
Intelligence Agency estimates that North Korea has
fabricated at least six and possibly a dozen
warheads at Yongbyon, including the one that it
exploded in its first underground test on October
9. In return for closing operations there, Chun
predicted the US will work out a deal under which
the US and others resume shipping heavy fuel oil
for the first time since late 2002.
North
Korea also is demanding the light-water nuclear
reactors as promised in 1994 in Geneva, for which
South Korea's Korea Electric Power Corp was to do
most of the work at a cost of $5 billion. The
Geneva agreement fell apart when Hill's
predecessor, James Kelly, in talks in Pyongyang in
October 2002 claimed that North Korean Vice
Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju had acknowledged the
program for building warheads with highly enriched
uranium - an admission that Kang has repeatedly
denied.
In any case, Chun In-young,
political-science professor at Seoul National
University, doubts the US side is ready to agree
on a new deal for those reactors. The underground
nuclear test in October is widely believed to have
exploded Pyongyang's chances for getting those
reactors until North Korean has gotten rid of its
nukes - something that's not at all likely in the
near future.
Nor is the US expected to
agree to other North Korean demands, including
removal from the State Department's list of
terrorist states or opening of diplomatic
relations, though President George W Bush might
offer another assurance that the US will not stage
the "preemptive" strike that North Korean rhetoric
often cites as an integral aspect of Washington's
game plan. So tendentious are all these issues
that some observers believe the talking will
dribble on until after the US presidential
election next year - on the assumption that a
Democrat wins and is ready for serious
concessions.
Still, Chun In-young seemed
fairly confident "they will come out with some
agreement", possibly on oil shipments. The US "is
in a hurry to make some progress while stuck in
Iraq", he said, while "North Korea will gradually
back off" from impossible demands.
Forecasts of even a modest deal are
generally accompanied by reminders of all the
difficulties encountered in previous talks. "Don't
expect a big breakthrough," Chun warned. "I'm
afraid to be optimistic," said Reed at the Asia
Foundation. "We've been burned too many times."
The question, said Reed, is, "Will they
get to the point of signing a significant step
forward, or will North Korea sense American
weakness and hold out for more?" Still, he said,
"I don't see any way forward except to keep going
step by step."
Journalist Donald
Kirk has been covering Korea - and the
confrontation of forces in Northeast Asia - for
more than 30 years. (Copyright 2007 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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