Page 1 of
2 Korean race pitting capitalism
against conscience By Donald
Kirk
SEOUL - The Korean presidential
campaign now seems to revolve around the question,
which is worse, too-much-too-soon - or
too-little-too-late?
Lee Myung-bak, the
candidate of the conservative Grand National Party
(GNP), has been so far ahead in the polls for so
long that some analysts believe he may be in
danger of succumbing to overexposure. It's become
almost fashionable, even among conservatives who
denounce the government of President Roh Moo-hyun
as leftist, anti-business and all too willing to
compromise with North Korea,
to complain they're tired of Lee, the former mayor
of Seoul and a generation ago the hotshot chairman
and CEO of then-mighty Hyundai Engineering and
Construction.
But then the question is
whether Chung Dong-young, former unification
minister, TV anchorman and impassioned advocate of
reconciliation with North Korea, can possibly
overcome a huge deficit in the polls after having
finally been nominated by the newly formed United
New Democratic Party barely two months before the
election on December 19.
True, the numbers
for Chung have started ticking up over the past
few days. Having once had a popularity rating of
about 10%, he's now closing in on 20% while Lee's
rating stays where it's been, at somewhat above
50%. If the ratings go up a point a day, as they
have been doing, Chung should be nipping at Lee's
heals in a month.
The betting now,
however, is that Lee will maintain his narrowing
lead right through the election among voters who
remain highly critical of Roh's record since he
defeated a conservative by 2.3% of the vote in the
last presidential election in December 2002.
In Korea, though, you come to expect the
unexpected, both good and bad. Who, for instance,
would have believed Roh's predecessor, the liberal
Kim Dae-jung, whose legacy endures under Roh as
the "Sunshine Policy" vis-a-vis North Korea, could
possibly have won by the narrowest of margins in
1997?
The coincidence of a third-party
candidate defecting from conservative ranks, the
support of another old-time conservative politico
to whom Kim Dae-jung promised the post of prime
minister - and the economic crisis that forced
Korea to go to the International Monetary Fund for
a $58 billion bailout all conspired to lift Kim to
the presidency on his fourth run at the job though
he'd said "never again" after losing in 1992 to
the conservative Kim Young-sam.
Roh, like
Kim Dae-jung or Kim Young-sam, can't run to
succeed himself under Korea's "democracy
constitution", promulgated in mid-1987 after mass
protests against near-dictatorial rule by military
leaders, but he would dearly like to pass on his
legacy intact to Chung.
He and his
advisers are pulling out all the stops, promoting
the joint statement that emerged from Roh's summit
in Pyongyang early this month with North Korea's
Kim Jong-il, as the best selling point. Those
polls, again, are quite favorable about the summit
- a vast majority think it was a good idea he went
to Pyongyang, the first South Korean leader to do
so since Kim Dae-jung flew there in 2000 for the
only previous North-South summit, and about 70%
seem happy with the joint statement that came out
of it despite its obvious flaws.
Now Roh
is busy trying to get not only the South Korean
National Assembly but also the United Nations
General Assembly to adopt the summit as their own.
The South Korean assembly is considering a bill to
"ratify" the "agreement" with Kim Jong-il while
South Korean diplomats at the UN are busy lobbying
the General Assembly to endorse it.
Chung,
meanwhile, is campaigning as the "peace
candidate", brandishing a record that includes his
role as unification minister in establishing the
Kaesong Industrial Complex just across the border
with North Korea and also in passing on the
South's proposal during six-party talks for a
massive energy program in reward for the North's
giving up its nuclear program.
Whatever
Roh says about the results of the summit is likely
to meet with Chung's approval.
Asked about
Roh's suggesting it's not a good idea to upset the
North Koreans by using such words as "reform" and
"openness", Chung said simply, "I understand." And
he has vowed to take charge of expansion of the
Kaesong zone in "the second phase of the era of
peace and economy", words taken from the joint
statement, and also to build a new zone on the
Yellow or West Sea, to the west of Kaesong, also
as called for in the statement.
The cries
for carrying out the North-South agreement leave
the Grand National Party in a somewhat tenuous
position. Lee Myung-bak has gone on record as not
opposing the idea of the summit, or of North-South
harmony, while carefully orchestrating a campaign
of criticism of details of the agreement. Lee's
long-held objection to all the Roh government's
dealings with the North
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