SEOUL - The enduring image of the current North-South Korean standoff may well
be the spectacle of balloons shaped like enormous condoms fluttering northwards
on a mission to alert North Koreans to the evils of Dear Leader Kim Jong-il.
Although it may be too much to expect North Korea to resume dialogue with the
South right away, South Korean officials have finally persuaded the activists
responsible for the balloon launches to knock it off. "For the time being,"
said the balloonists in a formal statement, "we have decided to stop sending
the leaflets and observe changes in North Korea’s attitude".
They yielded after the chairman of the ruling Grand National Party
extolled the advantages of the "bigger goal" of improving relations with the
North, as the Sunshine policy of reconciliation of the previous decade fades
into escalating threats amid an atmosphere of semi-crisis.
Evidence of the balloon campaign's success is that it managed, unlike the
broadcasts of a half-dozen private radio stations in the South, to thoroughly
annoy the North Korean authorities. The messages carried by the millions of
leaflets which descended on the North’s southern provinces provoked it on
December 1 to severely curtail access to the Kaesong industrial complex, which
lies just above the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas.
Relations sank to their lowest level in years with the expulsion of half the
South Koreans from the complex, leaving 880 South Koreans to supervise more
than 35,000 workers at the 88 light industrial enterprises there owned by South
Korean companies.
"The leaflets are what triggered the problem" said the vice chairman of the
complex, Yoo Chang-geun, though "the underlying problem is the cutting of
communications between the two Koreas", he added. The president of a high-tech
company with a plant in the complex, Yoo pleaded for factories there to be able
to operate free of politics.
"Nuclear issues are discussed within the six-party framework, and other
political issues can also be addressed through other channels," said Yoo,
calling for guarantees of "normal operation" inside the complex. While
factories within the complex are humming away, he said, the North has severely
limited the number of trucks carrying products out of the complex, and orders
from the South are down by 20%.
Yoo doubted, however, if North Korea would force the closure of the complex,
from which it earned approximately $100 million last year. "They know they are
using the Kaesong complex politically", he said. "If they shut down the
complex, they will be even more isolated from the rest of the world. I don’t
think North Korea will take such drastic measures."
Many South Koreans, however, fear worse retaliation for the tough policies of
conservative President Lee Myung-bak, who was elected a year ago amid a
backlash against the two left-leaning presidents who had preceded him.
The North Koreans "want to keep up the pressure on the South Koreans", said Lee
Jong-min, dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei
University. "They are quite upset about the leaflets, which said Kim Jong-il is
living like an emperor when most people are starving."
The South-North confrontation parallels the larger nuclear standoff in the
uncertain period of transition in the US from the George W Bush to Barack Obama
administration. US nuclear envoy Christopher Hill, currently meeting his North
Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan, in Singapore, still hopes for North Korea's
agreement on a "verification protocol" on the disablement of its nuclear
facilities, which it strongly opposes.
Dean Lee at Yonsei thinks it’s unlikely "there’s going to be any real forward
movement" while Hill tries to get around "misunderstandings," notably the
North’s refusal to countenance the removal of samples of materiel from its
nuclear complex at Yongbyon.
Hill believes Kim agreed to "sampling" before Bush approved the North’s removal
from the US list of nations sponsoring terrorism in October, and he now has
said the aim is to get North Korea to come to terms in writing. He’s hoping the
North will do this at the six-party talks opening on Monday in Beijing.
South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan has backed up the seemingly firm
position of President Lee, warning that North Korea will bear "a huge political
burden" if the talks fail.
In a somewhat conciliatory vein, Yu suggested "the art of negotiation" might
produce a compromise. The North’s "discontent and displeasure", he said, was
due to the South’s nuclear policy - and the leaflets. "All these are related,"
he said, but "we don’t want to provoke North Korea".
Analysts see the North as playing one game against the South and another in the
six-party talks, in which South Korea is a participant.
"The six-party talks will show a soft attitude," said Kim Tae-woo, senior
researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. North Korea, he said,
needs to consider "the whole picture of US relations" while waiting for Obama
to take office next month.
"But the North Korean stance against South Korea will be tough," he said, as
the North pressures the South to return to the Sunshine policy initiated in
1998 by Kim Dae-jung at the outset of his five-year presidency,
The question is whether South Korea will remain firm as the North puts the
squeeze on Kaesong. The government, while calling for the balloonists to stop
their launches, has repeatedly said it had no legal authority to stop them -
and did not seem at all unhappy about the messages wafting over the North.
A pair of plain-clothes policemen relaxed in a large civilian vehicle as they
watched a typical balloon launch, several days before the balloonists
reluctantly agreed to suspend them. The scene was a lonely parking lot in front
of the ruins of a church destroyed during the Korean War, just below the
demilitarized zone in the mountainous central region.
Lee Min-bo, who escaped from the North 15 years ago, intoned a prayer and
stared hopefully every time an aide released a balloon carrying ten thousand
leaflets in bags sealed by a timer which then explodes, sending them fluttering
down over North Korea. In two hours, he sent ten balloons through a low cloud
cover into wind currents that a detailed check of weather reports showed were
blowing steadily from south to north.
"The campaign is going very well," said Choi Hyo-an, a retired South Korean
army colonel who often accompanied Lee on his balloon launches. "Now the North
Korean soldiers are gathering the leaflets. That means the North Korean people
are picking them up."
Lee, a devout Christian, described the balloon campaign as "a kind of
psychological warfare." Financed by South Korean Christian groups, he said he
wrote leaflets mixed religious messages with news about the South’s "high
standard of living" and "the truth" about North Korea.
As he was launching his balloons, about ten bearing 100,000 leaflets printed on
waterproof plastic, South Korean managers and officials were leaving the
Kaesong complex 60 kilometers to the west under orders from North Korea.
The police remained on 24-hour duty to ensure the safety of Lee and his aides.
"Every morning they call and ask, ‘Are you Ok’," said Choi, the retired
colonel. The defectors, he said, "have become Christian and want to work for
the Lord".
Journalist Donald Kirk has been covering Korea - and the confrontation of
forces in Northeast Asia - for more than 30 years.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
