SEOUL - Call it a success or failure, North Korea's launch on Sunday of a
long-range missile, supposedly carrying a satellite that failed to go into
orbit, demonstrates conclusively Pyongyang's ability to deliver a warhead to a
distant target.
In that sense, the latest version of the Taepodong-2 accomplished what North
Korea had wanted - and also bore out United States, Japanese and South Korean
charges of violating United Nations resolutions adopted in 2006 when the North
entered the ranks of the nuclear powers by testing a small warhead.
The UN Security Council this time is not about to enforce the previous
resolutions, much less adopt a meaningless statement
of "condemnation". The council, after three hours of closed-door palaver on
Sunday, failed to agree to anything after calls for restraint by both China and
Russia, North Korea's only friends and one-time Korean War allies.
Amid clear signs that those two would veto any resolution, the UN debate rested
on the legality of the launch as a violation of the resolutions of 2006. "It's
really not a violation," said Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis
Group, citing North Korea's adherence to the Outer Space treaty.
The failure of the satellite, however, suggested that North Korean engineers
had fabricated a dummy satellite as a cover-up for a test of the Taepodong-2.
The suspicion was that North Korea hoodwinked the world by fixing the dummy to
the missile for the benefit of all those eyes-in-the-sky relaying images as
"proof" that the launch was for space exploration.
At the same time, the launch marks a significant step toward delivering a
warhead as far as Alaska, Hawaii or the US west coast. Now, as South Korean
media reported, it's clear Taepodong-2 can travel at least 3,000 kilometers -
and the next time around may prove its ability to go as much as twice that
distance.
For now, the US North American Aerospace Command in Colorado said the launch
was "not a threat to North America". Nor did any debris fall over Japan after
the first stage fell into the waters between North Korea and Japan before
flying over Japan and then over and finally into the Pacific. Real or dummy,
the satellite is assumed to have fallen into the Pacific Ocean, along with the
second stage of the booster rocket.
South Korea's government was clearly relieved by reports of the failure of the
so-called "satellite" to go into orbit after having denounced the exercise as a
"serious offense" that jeopardized peace in Northeast Asia. Word of the failure
came as a North Korean announcer was shouting out the news that the "satellite"
was in orbit, happily conducting scientific experiments and broadcasting
patriotic songs of praise for North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, and his
father, Kim Il-sung, the country's "eternal president" who died in 1994.
The failure was all too reminiscent of the failure of Taepodong-1, launched on
August 31, 1998, on a similar trajectory over Japan. For days, North Korean
broadcasts said Taepodong-1 had launched a satellite, broadcasting paeans to
Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung. North Korea never acknowledged the failure but
stopped making the claims some time later after space analysts worldwide said
there was no sign the missile had gone into orbit.
However, the failed satellite launch added to the argument that North Korea had
planned it all along as a military test. "It's a matter of time," said Kim
Tae-woo, senior researcher at the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses, "for
an inter-continental ballistic missile with a North Korean flag" to go into
flight. North Korea's success in launching a long-range missile at all,
however, raises the stakes in terms of the dangers facing the North's enemies
as well as the prospects for returning to the six-party talks to remove those
dangers.
At the same time, he and other analysts here see the launch as forcing both the
United States and North Korea to return to dialogue. "Sooner or later the
United States will suggest direct dialogue," said Kim. "North Korea may be
waiting for the US suggestion for dialogue."
He believes US envoy Stephen Bosworth may first suggest two-way dialogue,
possibly with North Korea's first Vice Foreign Minister, Kang Sok-ju, but he
thinks Bosworth would like to open talks on a much higher level, ideally with
North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, reported to have suffered a stroke in
August.
"Bosworth may wait to see Kim Jong-il," said Kim, "but North Korea may not
allow it."
Pinkston, of the International Crisis Group, believes it may take a while for
talks to take place. "There's got to be a cooling-off period," he said. "It's
going to depend on the worldwide reaction." He sees the upcoming session of the
Supreme People's Assembly, North Korea's rubberstamp parliament, convening on
Thursday, as a vital indicator. "We'll see if Kim Jong-il appears."
Kim Tae-woo believes that Kim Jong-il may still be able to preside over the
opening session, as his "health is good enough to control the government".
If he manages to show up, Kim Jong-il's appearance at the assembly will
inevitably be seen as confirmation of a triumph that will strengthen his grip
on the country while he considers a successor, probably one of his three sons.
As for South Korea, the Blue House - the office of South Korea's President Lee
Myung-bak - responded with a tough statement, vowing "firm counter-measures"
and denouncing the launch as "a reckless act" and "a serious threat" to the
stability of the region.
The government, however, is not expected to consider any immediate military
response other than to put its forces on high alert. But it may increase its
participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a multi-nation
effort spurred by the US in which countries actually monitor and possibly block
the shipment of nuclear material. South Korea, not wanting to offend North
Korea, has been an observer in the past.
It's not clear, though, if South Korea will want to deepen the confrontation
with the North by raising its profile in PSI exercises. After the initial
rhetoric and recriminations die down, South Korea may wish to speed up a return
to negotiations, broken off after the last six-party talks in December.
The launch "will make the talks happen earlier", said Choi Jin-wook, senior
researcher at the Korean Institute of National Unification. "The US will be
considering incentives rather than penalties," he added, surmising that
Bosworth has already requested talks with Kang Sok-ju.
As for the South Korean response, said Choi, "We can't do anything" other than
to "cooperate with the US and Japan and discuss the issue in the UN Security
Council". He added, emphatically, "We can't react militarily."
Paik Hak-soon, senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, agrees with others in
doubting if the UN Security Council can adopt any resolutions that will
strengthen those already in effect since 2006.
"There's nothing much to put into new sanctions," he said. "China and Russia
are not in agreement." That, he says, is "because of the treaty on the peaceful
use of outer space that gives North Korea the right to put a satellite into
orbit."
"For the Barack Obama administration," said Paik, "there's no other way but to
return to negotiations for six-party talks for the nuclear issue. Initially
talks could be bilateral if North Korea does not want other parties involved."
As for South Korea, he said, "We have no leverage, no control mechanism over
North Korea."
For North Korea, said Paik, "this missile launch will be used as an opportunity
to engage in talks" with the US. In the end, analysts believe North Korea may
insist on diplomatic relations with Washington while bypassing the South.
Lee Chang-chong, a retired South Korean ambassador, wonders how long the world,
including South Koreans, will really care about the launch or the subsequent
debate.
"It's the same demonstration conducted by Kim Jong-il several years ago," said
Lee. "What I want to know is what is America going to do. The Obama
administration is in a mess in the wake of financial crisis."
Lee believes South Koreans also are more worried about economic issues than the
North Korean missile. "It's very strange," he said. "We're indifferent to
what's going on."
In contrast, he said, "Japan is in a panic, but here people have been enjoying
peace ever since the Korean War [in the early 1950s] and people are very
optimistic that North Koreans are not going to invade the South again."
Journalist Donald Kirk has been covering Korea - and the confrontation of
forces in Northeast Asia - for more than 30 years.
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