Kim Jong-il tests US-China cooperation
By David Gosset
Although the idea of a Group of 2 made of the United States and China is not
the best way to reach global and sustainable equilibrium, immediate challenges
underline the importance of the relationship between the two. By conducting a
second nuclear test on May 25, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)
puts the US-China cooperation at the center of Asian and even, due to the very
nature of the nuclear issue, of world politics.
Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, is leading a
congressional delegation of four Democrats and one Republican on a working
visit in China to promote clean energy
and to explore what can be done with Beijing to fight climate change.
Next week during his first official trip to China, Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner will discuss with his Chinese counterparts the world financial crisis.
These two important visits take place before the 20th anniversary of the
crackdown on the Tiananmen Square democracy movement whose interpretation is a
source of disagreement between China and the West.
But the news coming from North Korea gives Washington and Beijing another
important impulse to coordinate their policies and to upgrade their
relationship. The European Union through its high representative for the Common
Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, condemned Pyongyang's
"irresponsible act". The United Nations Security Council voiced strong
opposition to the DPRK's provocation. However, real progress on the Korean
issue will depend on the combined efforts of the US and China.
On the day of Pyongyang's announcement, Washington and Beijing displayed solid
convergence. China's Foreign Ministry declared to the Xinhua News Agency that
"the Chinese government is resolutely opposed" to the North Korean nuclear
test. It echoed the position of American President Barack Obama, for whom the
tests were a "matter of grave concern to all nations". In a telephone
conversation with the New York Times, Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff
said: "I think we were all impressed with the fact that the Russians and the
Chinese denounced this so strongly."
Once again, the Dear Leader, 68-year-old Kim Jong-il, is taking the world by
surprise. While he seems to practice what Chinese strategist Sun Zi considered
to be the essence of war, deception, and therefore tries to be perceived as
unpredictable, he is certainly consistent with the Songun idea, the
"Military First" policy. With more than 1 million active troops for a
population of 23 million, North Korea is a military state which spends almost
30% of its gross domestic product on defense.
In September 2008, reports speculated on Kim's health as "seriously ill" or
even already dead for some. However, in the first half of April 2009, the
secretive Kim announced that Pyongyang would pull out of the six-party talks
after being condemned by a statement of the UN Security Council over a
suspicious rocket launch. Strong action is now supporting tough rhetoric.
Three years after its first nuclear test, Pyongyang decided to conduct another
underground nuclear explosion in the Kilju area. According to the North Korean
Central News Agency, "The current nuclear test was safely conducted on a new
higher level in terms of its explosive power and technology of its control."
Beside attracting the entire world's attention, Kim Jong-il probably hoped to
achieve three objectives: to put the DPRK in a position where sovereignty is
ensured by a strategy of deterrence, to generate internal cohesiveness and to
enter direct negotiation with the new American administration.
Pyongyang's behavior is extremely dangerous. It is an obvious threat for
neighboring countries, and among them Japan, where atomic bombings killed more
than 200,000 people on August 6 (in Hiroshima) and 9 (in Nagasaki), 1945. The
DPRK's attitude has also the potential to trigger an arms race in Northeast
Asia.
But, from a global perspective, it signals to other countries - President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad's Iran for example - that the international regime on
non-proliferation and the status quo of the nuclear club can be seriously
challenged.
Obama will have to respond rapidly to the DPRK's provocative move - May 25 was
Memorial Day in the US - in a time of global financial crisis and when Af-Pak
(Afghanistan and Pakistan) are Washington's top priorities.
But Obama's options are limited. As the history of the six-party talks (a
process which brings together China, the DPRK, South Korea, Russia, Japan and
the US) shows since 2003, Washington does not have in fact much direct leverage
on the Hermit Kingdom. Aiming at "self-reliance" in "On the Juche Idea", Kim
Jong-il commented on this key principle of North Korean ideology - Pyongyang is
one of the world's least-open economies and South Korea, China and Thailand are
its main trading partners.
To put real pressure on Pyongyang, Washington will have to work closely with
Beijing which shares a 1,400-kilometer border with North Korea.
Speaker Pelosi issued a statement several hours after North Korea's tests, "The
Chinese must use their influence to help bring North Korea to the table of the
six-party talks." Beijing will work in this direction. However, American
officials should not overestimate China's influence on Pyongyang.
Beyond the relatively well-known history of the Korean war in the early 1950s
and its consequences, a look at the complex dynamics which for centuries have
marked relations between Goguryeo, Baekje, Silla - political entities on the
current Korean Peninsula - and their gigantic Western neighbor shows that
Korean national pride refuses, despite China's unavoidable presence - or
precisely because of it - subordination.
While Kim Jong-il's May 25 military provocation is certainly testing the new
American administration, it will also expose the quality and nature of the
US-China cooperation. For Obama, this might be the real test: he will have to
avoid unnecessary escalation, de-ideologize the debate and work creatively with
the Chinese to put North Korea on the path to economic and political modernity.
David Gosset is director of the Euro-China Center for International and
Business Relations at CEIBS, Shanghai, and founder of the Euro-China Forum.
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