Explosive evidence ignites Korean tensions
By Donald Kirk
SEOUL - Here was a summit with an explosive twist. How better to enliven an
otherwise boring if mysterious mission to China by the leader of North Korea
than for the leader of South Korea to virtually pin the blame on the North for
the sinking of a South Korean warship?
The key word is "virtually". President Lee Myung-bak has not quite formally
accused North Korea of torpedoing the Cheonan, with a loss of 46 lives,
while on routine patrol in the Yellow Sea on March 26. Rather, he's promised a
"resolute" response, and his officials are saying they've now found a bit of an
explosive that leaves no doubt North Korea was responsible.
The mission of Dear Leader Kim Jong-il would have been singularly
uninteresting, at least as far as public pronouncements were concerned, were it
not for a steady barrage of statements
and revelations that President Lee seems to have orchestrated to get the
Chinese on his side on all issues concerning the Cheonan.
He made the timing of the running commentary from Seoul unmistakably clear when
he remarked to members of his ruling party that his government would inform
China of the results of its investigation at once and expected China to "play a
role" in doing something about it.
Not that there's much China can or will do. President Hu Jintao no doubt urged
Kim Jong-il to focus on his ever-deteriorating economy and to return to
six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program, but it's unlikely China
exerted any real pressure on the North to confess and compensate South Korea
for the loss of the warship and its sailors.
The final word from Kim Jong-il's first mission to North Korea in four years is
that he promised to work for a "denuclearized" Korean Peninsula. When it comes
to the Dear Leader's commitment on that score, said Xinhua, the Chinese news
agency, his view "remains unchanged". Which also means, to superficial
appearances, that nothing has changed in North-South relations or in the
North's refusal to get rid of its nuclear weapons program.
The mood, however, has definitely changed in Seoul. Whatever Kim Jong-il may
have said about returning to six-party talks, last held in Beijing in December
2008, the sinking of the Cheonan rules out any possibility of South
Korea or its American ally returning to the table in the near future.
In addition to that, North Korea has taken over all the facilities that cost
Hyundai Asan more than $1.5 billion to build in the tourist zone at the base of
Mount Kumkang, overlooking the east coast just above the line between the two
Koreas. It is also making life uncomfortable for 50 small- and medium-sized
South Korean enterprises in the economic complex at Kaesong, on the opposite
side of the Korean Peninsula, about 40 miles (64 kilometers) north of Seoul.
South Korean leaders see the sinking of the Cheonan, one of a dozen
corvettes plying the waters around South Korea, as more serious than any number
of other bloody episodes perpetrated by the North over the years since the
Korean War armistice was signed in July 1953.
"The sinking of the Cheonan was unprecedented in human history, other
than in wartime," said a South Korean general, perhaps engaging in hyperbole
but nonetheless expressing the sentiments of the country's top leadership. "It
was the equivalent of a declaration of war." Almost daily, the South is
building up its case - if not for war, then for a measure of international
sympathy and support that will finally bring Kim Jong-il to heel.
The latest word, attributed to a government official talking to the South
Korean media, is that "explosive traces" were found "in the Cheonan's chimney
[funnel] and the seabed" around the vessel's stern, which broke off from the
main portion of the vessel with most of the victims inside within a minute of
the explosion. These traces "were all confirmed as those of the high explosive
RDX", said the official, as quoted by the South's Yonhap news agency, using the
acronym for "research department explosive", described a "white crystalline
solid" that's "the most powerful high explosive and a main ingredient in
plastic explosives".
That kind of evidence, however, is guaranteed not to induce North Korea to
acknowledge having fired the torpedo or to provide the South with the
ammunition for more than never-ending recriminations and accusations. Nor is it
at all likely that China will come down on the side of the South as long as its
top priority remains stability on the Korean Peninsula.
The incident, though, is certain to deepen the military confrontation that goes
on dividing the peninsula. The watchword for the South Korean armed forces is
clearly "never again".
"We need to devise different scenarios and responses to a North Korean attack,"
said a senior military official. "We need to renew our attention on
conventional and asymmetrical weapons and try to come up with a new plan."
Specifically, when it comes to the disputed waters of the Yellow Sea, along a
Northern Limit Line that North Korea refuses to recognize, "our patrol
operations have difficulties", said the official. "We are considering extending
our patrolling capabilities".
As for how the South would respond in another episode, he said "the military
prepares so we can launch an attack immediately" with options ranging from
"exploding a [North Korean] missile base to attacking a ship in the Yellow
Sea".
On that basis, more clashes in the Yellow Sea appear inevitable. The waters
have already been bloodied in three episodes, first in June 1999 when a North
Korean boat was sunk, probably with about 40 sailors on board, then in June
2002 when six South Korean sailors were killed in a patrol boat that sunk while
under tow back to port, and again last November when a South Korean corvette
sent a North Korean vessel back to port in flames, killing an unknown number of
North Korean sailors.
It's widely believed in Seoul that a top North Korean official, presumably with
Kim Jong-il's approval, decided to torpedo the Cheonan in response to
the November incident. The South Korean military official, however, saw the Cheonan
incident as almost a blessing in disguise.
"The sinking of the Cheonan gave us a lesson that we need to overhaul
and review, and we are doing that," he said. "We see the Cheonan incident
as an opportunity to revamp the overall system."
The incident, moreover, may provide yet another dividend for the South Korean
military - delay of the controversial plan to transfer command over armed
forces in Korea from the Americans to the South Koreans in case of war.,
The South Koreans have been in command of their own forces for a number of
years, but they do not think they can possibly meet the deadline of April 17,
2012, set by the US for what's known as "OPCON" - Operational Control.
"The US and Korea agree the time for OPCON should be extended," said the
military official, even though "the Pentagon is sticking to the original
decision".
Yes, "OPCON should be transferred to Korea because Korea is a sovereign
nation," he said, but first "it's necessary to procure state-of-the-art
weapons, and we also need to be prepared for asymmetrical and conventional
weapons".
With China presumably promising Kim Jong-il untold economic aid, plus spare
parts and other military hardware, the conclusion seems obvious: the potential
for a second Korean war rises while the major powers on either side of the
divide stoke up the power keg.
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