BEIJING - North Korea's surprising disclosure of uranium-enrichment facilities
comes as a powerful jolt to the United States and South Korea, which have
adopted a dual strategy of stick and carrot in getting Pyongyang to abandon its
nuclear program.
The challenge for Seoul and Washington is to find a coordinated response,
analysts said.
The North continued to up the ante on Tuesday when it fired dozens of artillery
shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, off the west coast of the
Korean Peninsula near a disputed maritime border.
A spokesman for South Korea's joint chief of staff confirmed the
incident but only said "scores of rounds" were fired. The fire apparently came
from positions south of the North Korean city of Haeju, and the South returned
fire.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency said one South Korean soldier had been killed
and dozens wounded in the shelling. About 1,200 people live on the island.
The latest concern over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions follows remarks over the
weekend by Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear scientist at Stanford University in the
United States who claimed to have been shown a new uranium-enrichment facility
during a visit to North Korea in early November.
Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico,
posted a detailed report about his visit to North Korea on Stanford's web site,
and said he had been shown more than 2,000 centrifuges during a tour of the
Yongbyon nuclear complex, which he characterized as "stunning" and said the
control room was "astonishingly modern".
Enriching natural uranium to 3-5% produces fuel for light-water reactors. But
enriching it to more than 90% yields the ingredients for a nuclear bomb.
Many observers have urged the US and its allies to engage North Korea, saying
the proliferation challenge from the country will continue to grow if it is not
dealt with. North Korea has recently expressed its willingness to return to the
six-party talks on its nuclear program that have been stalled for more than a
year and follow through on a September 2005 agreement to denuclearize the
Korean Peninsula.
"It's a provocation [disclosure of the centrifuges] from the US perspective.
But from the North Korean perspective, it's a reasonable response," said John
Delury, a security expert at the Yonsei University Graduate School of
International Studies in Seoul. In recent weeks North Korea has been sending
signals that it is willing to go back to the six-party talks that include North
and South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and Russia.
China has been campaigning for the resumption of the talks in brisk shuttle
diplomacy on behalf of North Korea and there have been a number of statements,
public and through other channels, that Pyongyang is ready to go back to the
negotiation table.
But the US and South Korea have been holding back, waiting for something more,
expecting a clear step on the North's side to demonstrate it is ready to start
denuclearization unilaterally, said Delury, who recently visited North Korea.
"Personally, I don't think that was going to ever come about. They've probably
realized so. This is North Korea's stick now [to get them to talk]."
Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul's Dongguk University,
who is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University, said North Korea's
pre-existing plutonium programs that can produce nuclear weapons had been de
facto recognized as Washington and Seoul had been taking their time in not
engaging North Korea. "As a result, things are now more complicated than
before. Now, North Korea has another card, called uranium," said Koh.
Analysts said Pyongyang's expose of its uranium program was a signal that it be
taken seriously as a dialogue partner by the US, which has been officially
using a South Korea-initiated dual strategy combining sanctions with dialogue,
but this has de facto resulted in it avoiding dialogue with North Korea.
Cui Zhiying, director of the Korean Peninsula Research Office under the
Asia-Pacific Research Center of Tongji University in Shanghai, said the North's
latest provocation shouldn't be seen as seeking confrontation, but rather its
own way of signaling to the US that it wants dialogue. "North Korea has
repeatedly expressed that it wants dialogue with the US and it wants the
six-party talks to resume. But the US and South Korea have not been
forthcoming. So, North Korea is pressuring them to come to the talks," Cui
said.
North Korea's antics come amid an ongoing power transition from Dear Leader Kim
Jong-il to his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-eun, who is believed to be 27.
The rapidly unfolding succession process, sparked by Kim Jong-il's stroke in
the summer of 2008, led to the North Korean leader visiting China twice this
year, which is seen as paving the way for earning China's endorsement for the
successor and seeking China's economic support for the economically hobbled
country.
"Kim Jong-il is sculpting his son with a strong leader's image with the latest
nuclear move," said Tetsuo Kotani, a research fellow at the Okazaki Institute,
a think-tank in Tokyo.
With the successor in place, South Korean analysts see North Korea as being
more stable. "Some view the North's brinkmanship as a way to seek outside help
to improve its internal dire situation. Yet I am inclined to see it as a sign
of the North's confidence that it can pull through both the succession and on
the nuclear front," said Koh at Stanford University.
Analysts see Pyongyang's overture as putting Seoul and Washington in a dilemma.
The allies have different priorities in dealing with North Korea. Since the
hardline Lee Myung-bak administration took power in 2008, Seoul has
cold-shouldered North Korea, demanding that it first show a sincere willingness
for denuclearization as a condition for engagement, including provision of
economic aid.
For the Barack Obama administration, North Korea has been a lower-tier
international affairs priority, behind the Middle East and Afghanistan.
Washington's lack of enthusiasm to engage North Korea, while it has also been
preoccupied with its domestic economic woes, is manifest in its reliance on the
lead of its Asian ally, South Korea. This is especially the case since the Cheonan
incident in March, in which 46 South Korean sailors on the corvette died in the
volatile West Sea, near the disputed inter-Korean border.
Seoul blames the torpedo attack on the North, which denies any involvement, and
the US decided to stand firmly by Seoul in its call for a punitive stance on
North Korea.
How long the US goes along with its ally is debatable. Seoul is not in a
position to do an about-face and engage Pyongyang, especially after the
centrifuge revelations. The Lee administration has all along maintained that
the North's denuclearization is a precondition for engagement. Thus, it would
be impossible for Seoul to engage North Korea at a time the North is apparently
ramping up its nuclear arsenal.
"Seoul may opt for more sanctions. But I don't think the sanctions approach has
proved to be very effective. You've got to sit down at the negotiation table,"
said Delury in Seoul. "What's important now is for the US to start a dialogue
with North Korea," said Cui in Shanghai. Kotani in Tokyo expects the US will
enter into a brisk round of talks with the other powers involved in the North's
denuclearization talks, including China, before deciding its stance.
For Washington - with non-proliferation in mind - the issue is how to engage
North Korea without hurting Seoul's feelings; sophisticated diplomatic
communication will be required, observers said.
This is not happening at present. Stephen Bosworth, the US's special
representative for North Korean policy, characterized the North's revelation of
a uranium-enrichment program as "provocative", while speaking in Seoul on
Monday. Some analysts believe the apparent harsh response might be lip-service
to Seoul decision-makers as it belies the very purpose of his Asian swing,
which is to restart the six-party talks.
United States State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said the Obama
administration would take its time to assess the available information, adding
that Pyongyang's move may be a "publicity stunt".
All the same, the US might have to act sooner rather than later. "While the US
has been waiting, North Korea has developed plutonium programs. The US cannot
afford to neglect the uranium facilities as well," said Koh at Stanford
University.
Sunny Lee (sleethenational@gmail.com) is a Seoul-born columnist
and journalist; he has degrees from the US and China.
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