BEIJING - An estranged couple in the
middle of a divorce who smile and hold hands to
keep up appearances for the cameras was how
pundits used to describe the alliance between the
United States and South Korea during the George W
Bush and Roh Moo-hyun administrations and their
opposing approaches to North Korea
A
similar description serves well to characterize
ties between China and North Korea, which just
celebrated the 50th anniversary of their "Treaty
of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance".
Amid frequent high-level visits and new
economic projects, the two Cold War allies, who
fought together during the Korean War in
the 1950s, appear to have the
right vibe to be intimate buddies, and China's
deepening influence over North Korea is the
subject of some media infatuation. Yet analysts
point out that the devil is in the details and the
couple have their share of differences that
continue to impact regional security.
Last
May, as the two nations embarked on a new joint
economic venture, North Korea's state television
made a lavish display of comradeship with the
country's most important ally.
Chinese
leader Hu Jintao also sent North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il a letter saying that maintaining strong
ties was of vital importance, according to North
Korea's official Korea Central News Agency. KNCA
quoted the North Korea's top leadership as saying
that relations between the two countries "have
stood all tests of history" and made "a great
contribution" to ensuring peace in Northeast Asia
and other parts of the world.
The North
Korean soft focus is belied, however, by zooming
in on details that present a sharper picture of
the relationship and subtle differences that have
not been noticed by an outside audience.
"If you look at it closely, China actually
sent a downgraded delegation, headed by vice
premier Zhang Dejiang. It didn't send a
heavyweight figure from the Standing Committee of
the Politburo," said Choi Myeong-hae, a Sino-North
Korean relations expert, who worked for South
Korea's Foreign Ministry-run think-tank, the
Institute of Foreign Affairs and National
Security. "So, although it had the looks, but that
was rather lacking substance. It is North Korea
that hypes up the occasion."
Shi Yinhong,
a North Korea expert at Renmin University in
Beijing, agreed. "Who attends such kind of
ceremony is important." Also, compared to North
Korea, where there was a national-level
celebration of the two nations' anniversary, there
was no large-scale ceremony held in Beijing. "What
happens in Beijing is decided by Beijing," said
Shi.
The Sino-North Korean Treaty of
Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance,
which was signed on July 11, 1961, is special.
China has signed only two such official alliance
pacts, with the Soviet Union being the other. The
treaty with North Korea was extended twice, in
1981 and 2001, and current treaty runs through
2021.
Pundits have debated whether the
Sino-North Korean treaty, which included "mutual
assistance" clause, can be considered a defense
treaty in today's context. The treaty itself was
not ambiguous. It said the two parties committed
each other to immediately render military and
other assistance against any outside attack. But
recently there has been less emphasis on the
military aspect among Chinese scholars.
"The treaty was created during the time of
the Cold War. Friendship and mutual assistance is
the key. It is the most important, not the
military aspect," said Lu Chao, director of the
Korean Research Center at Liaoning Academy of
Social Sciences in China's northeastern region,
near the North Korean border.
"China's
emphasis is not on the military commitment. Today,
China treats it more of a symbol of comradeship.
But North Korea treats it as a 100% military
alliance," said Shi at Renmin University.
Indeed, analysts debate on how to
interpret the treaty in today's context. But they
all hate to chance it. For example, if there were
full-scale military conflict between the two
Koreas, how would China respond? If that ever
happened, the US military would be involved under
the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty with South Korea.
Lu emphasized that the Sino-North Korean
treaty is "clearly at work now".
Shi said,
"China will not support anyone's aggression on the
Korean Peninsula, whether it's from North Korea or
a counter-attack from the US-South Korea against
North Korea's aggression." Shi stopped short of
elaborating on what China would do in that
scenario, beyond saying that "North Korea's
survival is so vital to China's interest."
China sees North Korea as its "backyard"
in its strategy to balance the US troops in South
Korea. Analysts also take the view that China does
not want a war on its "doorstep" or a swarm of
North Korean refugees pouring in across its
border.
Given that North Korea is well
aware it is the subject of China's strategic
interest, some analysts say that Pyongyang also
uses that as leverage to pursue adventurism -
manifested recently as the sinking of the
Cheonan or the shelling of the South's
Yeonpyeong Island - knowing that China would
shield it from international criticism, wary of
the nation's stability as the ailing Kim Jong-il
prepares for the shift of power to his son and
heir apparent Kim Jong-eun.
"China fears
that if it joins the international sanctions and
pushes North Korea too hard, that may cause a
destabilizing impact on North Korea, which is
going through a volatile leadership transition
period," said Chang Dal-joong, a politics
professor at Seoul National University. But Chang
disagrees with the notion that North Korea enjoys
unbridled freedom of provocative behaviors under
China's protection.
"I don't think that's
the case. For China, in the aftermath of the
Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents, the
stability of the Korean Peninsula is more
important, even more important than the North's
nuke issue. By deepening its alliance with North
Korea, China wants to keep a brake on North
Korea's belligerence."
That projects a
delicate picture of Sino-North Korea relationship.
China does not welcome North Korea's provocations.
It doesn't endorse the North's nuclear adventurism
either. But China's strategic interest forbids it
from condemning North Korea harshly or breaking
away from the alliance relationship. North Korea
knows it and uses it for its own strategy too. In
the mean time, both smile in the front of
international audience, as do the few remaining
countries from the former socialist bloc.
Many of the audience see the appearance
and believe it. They blame China for "looking the
other way" whenever North Korea commits
provocations and not living up to being its claim
to be a responsible country. China secretly hopes
that some members of the international audience
catch on that its relationship with North Korea is
difficult and that and it doesn't necessarily
endorse the North's belligerence. However, except
for a few occasions, China swallows its pride and
smiles.
In January, 1980, then Chinese
foreign minister Huang Hua, who previously served
as president of the United Nations Security
Council in 1972, said that "How to handle
Sino-North Korean relations has been the biggest
headache for the Chinese foreign ministry".
Analysts have taken that remark as a frank and
valid characterization of bilateral ties, both
during the Cold War era and even today.
China has only once stepped off its normal
path in order to harshly criticize North Korea.
That was to describe Pyongyang's conduct over its
first nuclear test in 2006 as "han ran"
[wanton]. North Korea reacted by becoming less and
less responsive to China's calls. It even carried
out the second nuclear testing only 80 kilometers
from China's border, prompting some Chinese
schools to evacuate, fearing an earthquake. China
was alarmed. It realized that North Korea, it not
managed, could become a threat to China itself.
It was a good lesson for China. To manage
North Korea's adventurism, China learned that it
needed to keep engaging North Korea. "And the
Sino-North Korean friendship pact is still useful
in that sense," says Choi.
Choi argues
that one of the greatest puzzles of Sino-North
Korean ties is that though they are "allies with
blood ties", in a historical perspective the duo's
relationship has been more one of tension and
conflict, with moments of close ties an exception.
Meanwhile, against the backdrop of North
Korea's nuclear bidding, China's leverage over
North Korea has been highlighted among security
experts. The US and South Korea have repeatedly
urged China to exert its influence to contain on
North Korea's belligerence.
"Yes, but
China, up to now, has not resorted to using the
leverage. So, even though China has been touted as
'the key to the North Korean belligerence', time
again and again, China has proven to be not the
key to the North Korean problem. Frankly, China
doesn't want to use the leverage," says Shi Yinhong at Renmin University in Beijing.
Sunny Lee
(sleethenational@gmail.com) is a Seoul-born
columnist and journalist; he has degrees from the
US and China.
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