SPEAKING
FREELY Audacity of hope in North Korea
talks By Sangsoo Lee
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On February 29,
agreements were simultaneously released by the
United States and North Korea. Under the
agreements, Pyongyang will, after a three-year
absence, allow International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) inspectors back into the country to monitor
the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm
disablement of the North Korean nuclear reactor at
Yongbyon.
Pyongyang also agreed to close
monitoring of 240,000 metric tons of nutritional
assistance offered by the US that will be
distributed by international aid agencies, so that
the US could
ensure the delivery of
food to women and children, rather than
distribution by the military.
The
agreements also concerned not only the nuclear and
aid issues but also direct
population-to-population exchanges, including in
the areas of culture, education, and sports.
The agreements show that North Korea's new
leader Kim Jong-eun has the political will to
resolve the nuclear issue with the US through a
peaceful dialogue. Nevertheless, according to the
US, there is still a "long way" to go before the
six-party nuclear talks can resume. Even if they
are resumed, it is unclear whether the talks can
fully stop North Korea's nuclear ambition.
A need for talks There are
several reasons for Kim Jong-eun to engage in a
bilateral dialogue with the US. This year is a
critical time for Pyongyang as North Korea will in
April celebrate the long anticipated centenary of
the country's founder Kim Il-sung's birth.
For many years it has been understood that
the regime would announce in 2012 the success of
the country as strong and prosperous, to coincide
with the centenary celebrations. In such a
landmark year, it comes as somewhat of an
embarrassment for the new leader that the country
is in dire need of food aid. Kim Jong-eun is now
under internal pressure to show his capacity for
dealing with food crises. As a result, food aid
from the US is an efficient way to solve the
problem of food shortages, thereby maintaining
stability within the country.
North Korea
is pursuing a strategy of dialogue with the US in
distinct contrast to its shunning of South Korea.
Pyongyang has rejected Seoul's offers of dialogue
in recent weeks; animosity between the two Koreas
still lingers. A presidential election is
scheduled for later this year in South Korea and
it seems that Pyongyang is not interested in
dialogue with, what it perceives as, the
"lame-duck" and anti-North Korean president, Lee
Myung-bak. Instead Pyongyang will wait until
after a new South Korean government has taken
office to resume talks. Kim Jong-eun is attempting
to improve ties with the US, following the
guidance for such left by his father Kim Jong-il.
The late Kim regarded the US as the greatest
threat to the security of the North and,
therefore, considered not South Korea but the US
the most important negotiation partner for North
Korea.
China is North Korea's main
economic donor and by far the most influential
power in Pyongyang. However, North Korea views
China primarily as leverage in dialogue with the
US, and Kim Jong-eun has reminded Beijing that
Pyongyang does have other options, such as direct
talks with the US
No more strategic
patience Obama's approach to resolving the
North Korean nuclear issue has switched from a
policy of "strategic patience" to that of a policy
of engagement. There are several reasons for this.
The Obama administration has its own headaches in
the Iranian nuclear issue - a dispute that is
currently gridlocked. With the US election
looming, Obama wants to be able to show some
achievements in his foreign relations portfolio,
and in particular with the North Korean nuclear
issue. The February 29 agreements are the first
positive development in US dialogue with North
Korea since Obama took office.
Obama has
tried to enhance the political leverage of the US
over North Korea, previously the US has relied on
China's influence over Pyongyang. Indeed, it is a
part of the US strategy for dealing with China and
is aimed at undermining the influence of China
over the country. China is more concerned about
stability on the Korean Peninsula than in
dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons.
However, China tacitly supported US direct talks
with North Korea with the goal of dismantling
Pyongyang's nuclear program.
The US-DPRK
talks were also part of the wider engagement
process to resume the six-party talks. The talks
were based on the "three-stage plan" proposed by
China in January 2011. China launched the idea
that talks should start with inter-Korean talks,
followed by US-DPRK talks, followed by resumption
of the six-party talks. However, even if the
six-party talks will be resumed, the US-DPRK talks
will be continued and the US will discuss the key
issues with North Korea within the framework of
bilateral talks.
Implications of the US
election Although the talks between the US
and North Korea were an important starting point
for bringing about a breakthrough on the North
Korean nuclear issue, the situation could change
if Obama loses the 2012 presidential election.
Toward the end of the Clinton administration, in
October of 2000, First Deputy Chairman of North
Korea Jo Myong-rok and US secretary of state
Madeleine Albright exchanged visits to discuss the
prospects for concluding a peace treaty between
the two countries. The momentum was thwarted,
however, with the inauguration of US president
George W Bush, who castigated North Korea as a
member of the "Axis of Evil".
After a
couple of years, Bush modified his stance and
started negotiating like Bill Clinton had done
previously. However, Bush's presidency ended
without a resolution to the impasse. After four
years of a policy of "strategic patience" toward
North Korea, Obama has set down a new approach to
deal with the North Korean nuclear problem as we
have seen in the recent US-DPRK bilateral talks.
However, there is a familiar question mark
hanging over the post-election policy of the US.
The leading candidate of the Republican Party in
the US, Mitt Romney, has criticized the Obama
administration for weakness in its foreign policy
toward Iran and North Korea. If Obama fails in his
bid for re-election, Kim Jong-eun may very well
experience a similar volte-face from the US as his
late father did a decade ago.
Sangsoo Lee is a Research Fellow
at the Institute for Security and Development
Policy, Stockholm, Sweden. This piece is a revised
version of a Policy Brief for ISDP. The opinions
expressed in this Policy Brief are those of the
author and do not necessarily reflect the views of
the Institute for Security and Development Policy
or its sponsors.
Speaking Freely
is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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