TOKYO - North Korea's
missile-cum-satellite broke up in the air on
Friday morning, so did a beacon of hope for the
building of a "strong and prosperous nation".
The news of the failed launch may have
shocked Pyongyang, which had for weeks trumpeted
the endeavor as a major achievement, but it has
brought some comfort to Washington, Tokyo and
Seoul. These were among countries that called on
North Korea to call off the
launch - experts say the Unha-3 carrier's rocket
technology could be used to strike the US and
other targets with a long-range missile.
In a very rare move, North Korea ate
boiled crow. It acknowledged at noon on state
television that a satellite launched a few hours
earlier from the west coast had failed to enter
into orbit, splintering into pieces over the
Yellow Sea soon after take-off. "The earth
observation satellite failed to enter its preset
orbit," the state-run Korean Central News Agency
said. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now
looking into the cause of the failure."
The failure is a major setback for the
young North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun, who aimed
to boost his domestic legitimacy and rigidity by
launching what the North called an
Earth-observation satellite two days ahead of
celebrations for the 100th anniversary on Sunday
of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung. Kim
Jong-eun's "yes" men and Pyongyang people who were
in an enthusiastically festive mood will also be
devastated.
"Inviting many foreign media,
North Korea has become an object of public
ridicule in the world," Masao Okonogi, emeritus
professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a noted
expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula,
told Asia Times Online on Friday. "It has acted
with arrogance and recklessness more than needed.
To recover fallen prestige, it may adopt a more
belligerent stance towards other nations."
Okonogi said that since Pyongyang believed
the US, Japan and South Korea would now not take
North Korea's threats seriously, given the failed
rocket launch, it would take the risky step of
conducting its third nuclear test.
"North
Korea is only further isolating itself by engaging
in provocative acts, and is wasting its money on
weapons and propaganda displays while the North
Korean people go hungry," the US White House said
in a statement after the launch. "North Korea's
long-standing development of missiles and pursuit
of nuclear weapons have not brought it security -
and never will."
The United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) on Friday ordered an
emergency meeting to condemn the failed launch,
but it is unlikely to order immediate new
sanctions against the isolated state, although
Japan and South Korea are taking tougher stances.
This is because it is believed China will
only allow the UNSC to vote on a resolution
condemning the launch, but will not back any
attempts to impose fresh sanctions against
Pyongyang. Experts expect Beijing will do
everything in its power to prevent North Korea
from being destabilized.
Since the
beginning of the Cold War, North Korea had been
seen as China's first line of defense and
strategic buffer zone vis-a-vis the Western bloc,
led by the US. Beijing is also afraid of a refugee
flood once public safety gets worse in North
Korea.
Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and
senior fellow at the National Institute for
Defense Studies, a Japanese Ministry of Defense
(MoD) think-tank, takes a similar view as Okonogi.
"North Korea aims to become a
science-and-technology powerhouse as well as a
strong and prosperous nation," Akutsu said. "So
today's rocket launch failure should be very
shocking to them."
Akustu said, depending
on how strongly the UNSC) acted against North
Korea, led by the lobbying of the US, Japan and
South Korea, the risk remained that Pyongyang
would continue to resort to missile-firing,
nuclear tests and other provocations to
demonstrate to the rest of world its military
capabilities.
"Kim Jong-eun's new regime
is calling for a continuation of songun
[military first] politics, so it will continue to
pursue its nuclear and missile development
programs to boost its national prestige and
strengthen the regime's foundations."
North Korea conducted similar long-range
Taepodong-2 tests in 2006 and 2009, but with
unsuccessful results.
A source close to
Japan's defense intelligence said Kim Jong-eun
pushed the rocket-firing button on Friday under
pressure from the powerful military to coincide
with the celebrations for the anniversary of the
birth of Kim Il-sung, despite a lack of full
preparations for the launch.
Akutsu at
Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies
also pointed out that among the military power
elite is Korean People's Army chief of staff Ri
Yong-ho, believed to be one of Kim Jong-eun's
closest confidants.
Ri is thought to have
been a supervisor of Jong-eun when the young
leader studied at the Kim Il Sung Military
Academy. His thesis was said to be "Missile
Guidance by GPS", according to the Japanese
intelligence community.
Among other
military officers who pressed the young master of
the nation to conduct the launch include Pak
To-chun, Ju Kyu-chang and Paek Se-bong. They have
been called the "three-man team of missile
guidance" by the South Korean intelligence
community and were recently promoted to
high-ranking generals, despite their previous
civilian status.
Japanese experts on North
Korea think Kim Jong-eun cannot easily punish them
over the launch failure because of his heavy
dependence on them in terms of political
management and the ruling of the country. Akutsu
said they would more likely receive an amnesty
thanks to the celebration of the 100th anniversary
of Kim Il-sung's birth for Sunday.
Okonogi
at Keio University, meanwhile, pointed out that
North Korean moderates such as its foreign affairs
bureaucrats will gain more power, rather than
hardliners in military circles in the wake of the
debacle.
Kosuke Takahashi is a
Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia
Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence
Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is
@TakahashiKosuke
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