Now it's all about Iran sanctions
The window for diplomacy with Iran is all but shut thanks to Tehran's latest flip-flop on its nuclear program, making sanctions seemingly inevitable. Western powers are growing weary of what is seen as Iran's mind games and intransigence. China, though, will not be rushed into doing anything rash. - Mohammed A Salih (Feb 9, '10)



Israeli case for war with Syria - and Lebanon Threats may be escalating between Syria and Israel, but the chances of war breaking out are very low: it would be too dangerous for Israel and too costly for the Middle East. Nobody, though, can rule out another Israeli war in Lebanon, where there is "unfinished" business to do. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 8, '10)

Dangerous steps in Iran's nuclear dance
Just days after Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said Tehran's nuclear fuel could be processed abroad, he ordered stockpiles of uranium to be enriched to a high degree domestically. Tehran's dualistic diplomacy is designed to increase Iran's bargaining ability in regards to a fuel deal, while proving a point to hawks in the United States. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 8, '10)

Pawns in a nuclear chess game
The United States has dismissed Iran's offer to exchange three US citizens held by Tehran since July for Iranians imprisoned by the US. The offer comes at a sensitive time, indicating that Tehran sees the prisoners as an important bargaining chip in its dealings with Washington. - Omid Memarian (Feb 4, '10)

Iran launches new phase in nuclear crisis
Tehran's acceptance of a "fuel-for-fuel" deal that would defuse concern over its nuclear program comes as the United States announces plans to encircle Iran and introduce tougher new sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Iran says its gesture is an unclenching of its fist, while skeptics dismiss it as a ploy to buy time and garner international support. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 4, '10)

THE ROVING EYE
Staring at the abyss
On Indonesia's tropical island of Bali, everything is about sekala and niskala, ritual and the occult. In the United States, the Pentagon has its occult as it continues its descent into the ghostly abyss of its "long war". When President Obama visits Indonesia next month, he'd do well to do some soul-searching on Bali if he is to avoid being permanently engulfed by hungry ghosts. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 4, '10)

The Iraqi oil conundrum
Dreams nurtured in the United States that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein would be quickly followed by oil revenues flowing into the coffers of US-based companies have long turned sour. Now, even the involvement of China has failed to get the black gold flowing. - Michael Schwartz (Feb 3, '10)

Agility fraud claim points to shell game
Agility, the Kuwait-based logistics company facing claims it overcharged the United States government more than US$1 billion on food supply contracts in Iraq, may have used family-owned shell companies to exploit a federal contractual mechanism known as "prompt payment discounts" to increase profits. - Pratap Chatterjee (Feb 3, '10)

US ups the ante in Iran nuclear game
By expanding its missile defense systems in the Persian Gulf, the United States is sending its strongest message yet to Iran over the stalemate in talks over Tehran's nuclear program. The move can also be seen as a sign that neo-conservative voices are being heard in Washington. - Mohammed A Salih (Feb 3, '10)

Ahmadinejad's economic plans under attack
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's proposed five-year plan and annual budget have attracted disdain. Parliamentarians must decide if he has deliberately sought rejection of his proposals so as to blame parliament for deteriorating economic conditions. - Mitra Farnik (Feb 3, '10)

Turkey changes course on Armenia
Though there has been much criticism of the Turkish government wanting to initiate a commission to look at the evidence relating to the 1915 killing of more than one million Ottoman-Armenian civilians during World War I, it's an important step as Ankara tries to move away from the country's traditionally dogmatic view of its official history. - Caleb Lauer (Feb 2, '10)

Agility attempts to vault fraud charges
Agility, a Kuwait-based logistics company that may owe the United States government as much as US$1 billion if found guilty of overbilling on food supply contracts in Iraq, is seeking an out-of-court settlement. If these talks fail, a subsequent trial could do much to reveal the extent of corruption related to the US occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. - Pratap Chatterjee (Feb 2, '10)

US defense envisions multiple conflicts
A wider range of threats, from Internet disruption to the destabilizing effects of climate change, features in the US Department of Defense's budget proposal released this week. With previous plans envisaging capability to fight two conventional wars, the list of possible conflicts for military engagement is, in theory, endless. (Feb 2, '10)

Obama losing control of Iran policy
Now that the United States Senate has passed a bill that will punish companies that aid Iran's gas industry, analysts say US President Barack Obama's administration is fast losing support for its foreign policies. Unless the bill is amended, the sanctions could be viewed as a potential checklist item on a path to military confrontation. - Ali Gharib (Feb 1, '10)

Iran caught up in China-US spat
China has reacted to news of the United States' proposed US$6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan by warning that diplomacy involving the US's efforts to get Beijing's backing in the nuclear stand-off with Iran could be damaged. By playing spoiler, though, China risks sending Washington further down a confrontational path with Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 1, '10)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Seven days in January
On his return flight after visiting South Asia, where he was blindsided, United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates watched Seven Days in May, a Cold War-era film about an attempted military coup in the US. With congress recently approving a US$626 billion Pentagon budget, the US military is so ascendant that it has no need for real-life coups. - Tom Engelhardt (Feb 1, '10)

Border breaches reveal Iran's reach
Iranian security forces are increasingly chasing smugglers deep into Iraqi territory. Iraqi Kurdistan and Baghdad are bickering over who should take action, while the infringements reinforce fears that Tehran is preparing to fill a power vacuum in Iraq when the United States withdraws. - Neil Arun and Shorish Khalid (Jan 29, '10)

Sanctions, regime change take center stage
United States President Barack Obama's State of the Union address signaled that Washington is set to take a more aggressive course on Tehran, with major sanctions legislation highly likely. Meanwhile, calls for outright regime change are growing louder, thanks to an unexpected change of heart by an influential American analyst. - Jim Lobe (Jan 28, '10)

Attack on the 'Shark' shakes Iran
The eye of Iran’s political storm is beginning to shift, with signs emerging that former Iranian president and long-time pillar, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, widely know as the Shark, is getting pushed out altogether. This purge, led by a high-level ayatollah, sends a strong message to the outside world: "normalization" along prescriptive Western standards is now out of the question for Iran. - Mahan Abedin (Jan 28, '10)

Taking credit for failure
The fact that bin Laden took credit for a failed attack - the botched attempt to bring down a Northwest Airlines flight on Christmas Day - is an indication that al-Qaeda's core group has become isolated from its "franchises" - a big change since the days when bin Laden denied responsibility for September 11, 2001. (Jan 28, '10)

MIXED MESSAGES OVER BIN LADEN
Better alive than dead
The release of the latest audio message claimed to be from Osama bin Laden has got tongues wagging again as to his status, whereabouts and threat posed to the West. The failure of technologically peerless American intelligence to find any trace him for nine years leads to speculation whether the United States is keeping bin Laden alive for strategic convenience. - Farooq Hameed Khan (Jan 28, '10)

Iran waits in the wings
Whether or not Iran participates in the London meeting, it will continue to press for a regional solution for Afghanistan, saying that the unilateral and military approach is not the solution. Should this approach not work, there is the likelihood of Tehran seeking cooperation with Pakistan's chief nemesis, India. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 27, '10)

The King of Spades finally falls
The execution of Ali Hassan al-Majid - "Chemical Ali" - on Monday helps to paint Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as a solid leader ahead of March's elections; deadly bombings in Baghdad the same day point to the opposite. Nonetheless, most Iraqis are relieved to see the "King of Spades" in the infamous deck of cards of Saddam Hussein's leadership pay for his crimes. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 26, '10)

Turkey seizes its moment
Though some analysts predict it's only a matter of time before Israel and Turkey resume warm ties following their recent rows, there is no going back. The days of Turkey being torn between its historical Arab ties and Westernization are long gone, which means Israel needs to get used to the fact that Ankara is no longer a "lackey of NATO". - Ramzy Baroud (Jan 26, '10)

SPEAKING FREELY
Iran confronts core contradictions
The contradictions of the Iranian revolution of 1979, derived from the twin aspirations of freedom from foreign domination and for democratic rule, have been exposed in the post-presidential elections ruckus. For the revolution to survive, its republican character will have to be enhanced at the cost of the hitherto dominant theocracy. - Ardeshir Ommani (Jan 26, '10)

Sunnis scramble for allies
United States Vice President Joseph Biden made it clear in Iraq at the weekend that he will not get involved in the row over the disqualification of candidates from the country's March polls. Aggrieved Sunnis will have to look elsewhere for assistance. A group of heavyweight Shi'ites united by the desire to unseat Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki may be where they should turn. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 25, '10)

Iranian elephant in the Iraqi room
The disqualification of over 500 candidates - many of them Sunni - from Iraq's March parliamentary elections has enraged Sunnis and even spurred the United States to intervene (unsuccessfully). Given the involvement in the decision of an extremist Shi'ite friend-turned-foe of the Americans, the circumstantial evidence points to Iran orchestrating the move. - Sreeram Chaulia (Jan 22, '10)

BOOK REVIEW
A flawed picture
Forces of Fortune by Vali Nasr
Though this book should be commended for attempting to dissect the difficult development issues in the Muslim world, it falls well short of succeeding. The author’s analysis has a flavor that makes it a timely travel companion for Western policymakers touring the Middle East to preach economic reform, yet it offers scant social scientific value. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 22, '10)

The curious case of Chemical Ali
Ali Hassan al-Majid earned the nom de guerre of Chemical Ali for unleashing the worst chemical weapons attack on civilians in history, which killed more than 5,000 people in a day. As the military hitman for his cousin, Saddam Hussein, Chemical Ali orchestrated the murder of some 100,000 Kurds in a single year. Yet even as he finally faces the hangman's noose, he may have one last role to play in Iraqi politics. - By Charles McDermid and Rebaz Mahmood (Jan 21, '10)

Mud, sweat and tears on Iran's frontier
Kurdish smugglers from Iraq braved the elements for decades as their illegal trade across the Iranian border flourished. Amid a crackdown which has humiliating consequences, there is even talk Iran will erect a wall to block their exploits. - Khalid Mahmud (Jan 21, '10)

Syria turns its attention east
By appointing former ambassador to Malaysia Lamia al-Assi as minister of economy and trade, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's intentions are clear. Though she's the country’s first woman to hold the position, it is no token nomination. Backed by Assi's expertise in the affairs of the Far East, Syria hopes to take its relations there to a new level. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 21, '10)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Going rogue in combat boots
It's America, 2016, and angry and desperate veterans of the "war on terror" have merged with the "tea bag" movement and other alienated groups to launch a military coup reminiscent of events in post-World War I Germany. In that era, as now in the United States, the German public saw its wealth and status threatened by a great recession and war, and a militarized solution for "the fatherland" soon became the most credible last resort. - William J Astore (Jan 20, '10)

King's legacy and Israel's future
Martin Luther King's legacy against state violence could be brought to bear on the Israeli-Palestinian conundrum - especially the way Israel's fears drive the situation - and on Washington in its dealings with Israel, where fear influences the Barack Obama administration. - Ira Chernus (Jan 19, '10)

Bubble bursts on Iran nuclear options
China has been blamed for ending unity among the UN Security Council's permanent members on new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. While Beijing's action could have been to stop world powers from getting carried away with their own rhetoric, it does set the stage for the United States and its allies to impose their own measures on Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 19, '10)

Saudi Arabia and the oil bank
Recent relative steadiness in the oil market, a situation that suits suppliers and end users, indicates an unstable equilibrium that is of little benefit to trading intermediaries, particularly investment banks that thrive on volatility and opacity. When volatility returns, fingers will again point at "speculators" - while the real culprits lie elsewhere. - Chris Cook (Jan 15, '10)

A fight against the odds
In 2001, George W Bush declared the United States was at war against al-Qaeda. President Barack Obama also claims the country's main enemy is al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda's shock troops in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and North Africa, based on the best intelligence estimates available, add up to about 2,100 fighters; the US has approximately 1.4 million active duty men and women under arms. - Nick Turse and Tom Engelhardt (Jan 15, '10)

Israel-Turkey ties hit a low point
A bizarre diplomatic snub in which the Turkish ambassador was deliberately placed on a lower couch than Israel's deputy foreign minister for a press conference has enflamed already strained bilateral ties. Apologies for the slight, which came after a Turkish television show depicted Israeli agents as child-kidnapping "wolves", are unlikely to be accepted by a furious Turkish public. (Jan 15, '10)

Hunt for al-Qaeda intensifies in Yemen
The Yemeni government says that its offensive against al-Qaeda is succeeding, as evidenced by the claimed killing of a top al-Qaeda commander on Wednesday. But there are still growing calls in the United States for Washington to consider its options in Yemen, including air strikes and clandestine operations. - Brian M Downing (Jan 14, '10)

Iran skeptical of US's Afghan strategy
Optimism that the election of US President Barack Obama would spark cooperation between the United States and Iran on Afghanistan has faded rapidly, despite shared interests there. Tehran is highly skeptical of the US plans to boost its military presence and engage with "moderate" Taliban, while Iran's own planned involvement needs US backing to be feasible. - Mitra Farnik (Jan 14, '10)

Syrian airline feels reach of sanctions
Syrianair, the national carrier of Syria, should be benefiting from a surge in passenger numbers through its base in Damascus. Instead, United States sanctions are preventing it from adding new European-made Airbus planes to its aging fleet. Bureaucracy and administrative corruption could be just as much to blame. (Jan 14, '10)

A killer blow against US-Iran ties
Iran was quick to accuse the United States and Israel over the assassination on Tuesday of Massoud Ali Mohammadi, a Tehran University nuclear physicist. Washington dismissed the accusations as "absurd", while the claims of responsibility from a group that seeks to re-establish the monarchy are dubious. Whoever the perpetrators, the killing sends a message that the forces opposed to any breakthrough between the United States and Iran are formidable. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 13, '10)

Regime change in Tehran? Don't bet on it
The dramatic images of protesters in Iran have convinced many in the West that the post-election opposition movement is similar to the one that overthrew the shah in 1979. This view is undermined by the movement's failure to attract many segments of society, its lack of a great religious leader, and the likelihood it would side with the government should Iran's sovereignty be threatened. - Dilip Hiro (Jan 13, '10)

Turkey embraces role as Arab 'big brother'
No longer ashamed of its Ottoman past, Turkey is striving to restore its place alongside Arab nations, a policy that embraces Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, the latest initiative being Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri's groundbreaking visit to Ankara. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reminding Arabs that the Turkish giant has emerged and that it is clearly on their side in the battlefront. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 13, '10)

Iran places trust in 'passive defense'
Contrary to reports claiming Iran wanted to hide the existence of nuclear facilities from the outside world, it actually wanted Western intelligence to conclude that it was putting some of its key nuclear facilities deep underground. Tehran believed it needed to convince United States and Israeli military planners that, in the event of an attack, they wouldn't be able to find and destroy a number of Iran's nuclear sites. - Gareth Porter (Jan 12, '10)

Yemen left with little wiggle room
The Yemeni government is in a bind. If Sana'a doesn't break up al-Qaeda cells, the likely United States military intervention would probably result in a greatly expanded armed resistance. If the government casts too wide a net, it risks tribal rebellion and other civil unrest. Either way, it would increase support for extremist elements. - Stephen Zunes (Jan 12, '10)

THE ROVING EYE
Empire reloaded
According to United States President Barack Obama, AfPak is still the epicenter of al-Qaeda, but the Yemen chapter is a more serious problem. Thus comes into play still one more rehash of the same old narrative: a fragile dictator, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, needs America to defeat the terrorists. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 12, '10)

Burj Khalifa and the Tower of Ideas
The opening this month of Dubai's Burj Khalifa - the world’s tallest building - didn't pass without criticism. But rather than view it as a Tower of Babel, it should be recognized for cracking technology frontiers to make even higher land-efficient urban dwellings possible. - Raja Murthy (Jan 12, '10)

Opposition struggles for control of Tripoli
In Beirut, Lebanon's ruling March 14 coalition is taking pains to accommodate the demands of Hezbollah, but in Tripoli, traditionally a March 14 bastion, it is working continuously to thwart the opposition. The factionalized world of opposition politics in Tripoli, dominated by the Islamic Action Front and the Tawhid (Monotheism) movement, is struggling to unite and boost Sunni support for Hezbollah. - Mahan Abedin (Jan 12, '10)

Maliki grasping at Shi'ite straws
Last week's mass arrests of Sunni youth by Iraqi security forces coincided with the release of Qais Khazali, a popular Shi'ite cleric who had been in jail since March 2007. It's all part of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's last-ditch attempts to shore up support among Shi'ites before the March elections following a number of political blunders. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 11, '10)

SPEAKING FREELY
The case for a parallel UN
The burden of peacekeeping expectations on the United Nations is so enormous that it is better to conceive a new "inter-societal organization" that would use non-violent means to build peace in multi-religious and multi-ethnic societies that are conflict prone. An inter-faith peacekeeping force outside the UN could fill the current void. - Kaveh Afrasiabi (Jan 11, '10)

US hand stayed - for now
Despite some apocalyptic language from the Barack Obama administration about the situation in Yemen being a regional and global threat, there is unlikely to be any visible military intervention as long as the United States appreciates this would unify Yemen like nothing else - against the invader. - Ian Williams (Jan 8, '10)

Obama's Yemeni odyssey targets China
The intervention of the United States in Yemen - in whatever form it takes - is not simply a matter of hunting down al-Qaeda. The focus on this strategic country, along with engagement with Somalia and Kenya, is a manifestation of the increasingly cozy three-way US-Israel-India alliance that is the emphatic counter to China's surge. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 8, '10)

Blackwater mercenaries off the hook
The decision of a United States court to throw out charges against five Blackwater employees for their role in the 2007 Nisour Square Massacre in Baghdad, and the subsequent out-of-court settlement of seven remaining cases, has enraged Iraqis, who wonder if justice will ever be dealt to the mercenary army that once epitomized the foreign occupiers' lawlessness and impunity. - Charles McDermid and Abeer Muhammad (Jan 8, '10)

Russia, China, Iran redraw energy map
Drowned out by the United States-driven cacophony over Tehran's alleged belligerence is news of the inauguration of a pipeline connecting Iran's northern Caspian region with Turkmenistan's vast gas reserves. Trumping the sole superpower and its European allies, Ashgabat has committed its entire gas exports to China, Russia and Iran. And Tehran - "increasingly isolated" according to Washington - finds itself at the center of a newly emerging economic axis. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 7, '10)

Yemen hard-pushed to deliver
The renewed focus on Yemen as a failing state and a haven for al-Qaeda will see many millions of dollars flow into the country for counter-terrorism operations, notably from the United States and Saudi Arabia. President Ali Abdallah Saleh, reliant as he is on influential tribal chiefs sympathetic to al-Qaeda, will find it difficult to deliver the "peace and stability" that Washington demands. (Jan 7, '10)

Fear grips Iraq's Anbar after bombings
Two suicide bombings in Iraq's Anbar province, coming after numerous assassinations, have wrecked the image of an area many believed was a standard bearer in quelling insurgent violence. With al-Qaeda making a comeback, locals are once again living in fear for their lives. - Uthman al-Mukhtar (Jan 6, '10)

More doubts over Iran's 'nuclear trigger'
A major British newspaper published leaked documents purporting to be compelling evidence of an Iranian nuclear-weapons program, but problems in the translation - and belated acknowledgements in the newspaper itself - have damaged the credibility of this "evidence". - Gareth Porter (Jan 6, '10)

Anwar al-Awlaki: Translator of jihad
The plot to bring down Flight 253 over Detroit was part of al-Qaeda’s campaign to shore up its profile in the United States. Central to this strategy is the rise of Awlaki, a US citizen of Yemeni descent now based in that country, who damaged his own reputation by praising the Fort Hood massacre. (Jan 6, '10)

Ein Al-Hilweh: A fruitless
search for al-Qaeda
The Ein Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon is often accused of harboring al-Qaeda and other jihadi groups. The dark and overcrowded conditions, deteriorating public services and restrictions on movement do create perfect conditions for a radicalization of disaffected elements there. However, Palestinian "popular committees" that prevent penetration by radical elements are for now keeping al-Qaeda out. - Mahan Abedin (Jan 6, '10)

Russia, China keep toehold in Yemen
The failed Christmas Day airliner bombing attempt has underscored Washington's commitment to poverty-stricken, al-Qaeda-infested Yemen, a "vital counter-terrorism partner" of the United States. Yet Yemen’s multimillion-dollar military modernization program is overwhelmingly centered not on Washington, but on Moscow and Beijing. (Jan 6, '10)

Turkey's Kurd initiative falters
Relations between the Turkish government and the country's large Kurdish minority turned sour with the banning of the ethic group's main political party. Yet good reasons remain for optimism that Turkey's ethnic divisions will continue to ease. (Jan 5, '10)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The Year of the Assassin
Ten questions - which double as tips on what to look for in the coming year - suggest just how much United States war efforts are likely to intensify in the Middle East, Central and South Asia. As a starting point, will a new war front open in Yemen? - Tom Engelhardt and Nick Turse (Jan 5, '10)

Iran, from confrontation to reconciliation?
After months of high political drama and street mobilizations in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran, culminating in deaths and hundreds of arrests, instead of the "imminent collapse" of the country, there are signs of an about-turn toward stabilization and political reconciliation. There is, however, a long way to go. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 4, '10)

US push feeds Yemen's gun culture
Following the Christmas Day attempt to destroy a trans-Atlantic flight, the United States and Britain have closed their embassies in conflict-ridden Yemen, where the alleged terrorist involved reportedly had links to an al-Qaeda group. The downgrading in ties is belied by high levels of US military aid to the Yemeni government. These are expected to rise over the next 18 months, while the US may already be initiating a "low-level" war in the area. - (Jan 4, '10)

Heavyweights to rise and fall
Lebanon, Iraq and, of course, Israel will be key to the stability of the region in the months ahead, as what happens in those countries has a ripple effect through the entire Middle East. Three men in particular will be at the center of what transpires in 2010. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 4, '10)

Iran's Guards tighten economic grip
Increased involvement of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps in the South Pars gas project might lead to oil and gas companies from Malaysia to China being pressured not to cooperate with Iran and lead to further setbacks to the Iranian oil and gas industries. - Omid Memarian (Jan 4, '10)

Hard choices for Iran
In light of the United Nations Security Council's decision to address Tehran's rejection of various resolutions demanding a suspension of its uranium-enrichment program in mid-January, the prospect of tougher sanctions looms large. Meanwhile, Iran needs to tread carefully to avoid jeopardizing its standing in the Non-Aligned Movement, which gives politicians some difficult decisions to make in the year ahead. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 23, '09)

BOOK REVIEW
Osama bin Laden, my father
Growing Up bin Laden by Jean Sasson, Omar bin Laden and Najwa bin Laden
Omar bin Laden had no choice in being born the fourth son of Osama bin Laden, and a favored sibling at that, but he did have the choice to reject the ways of his father. He spurned the AK-47 with which he had become familiar as a youth growing up in Afghanistan, and elected to define his own destiny. It has not been an easy road as he struggles to achieve acceptance in a world in which the name bin Laden spells only one thing - terror. - Simon Allison (Dec 23, '09)

INTERVIEW
An Islamic view of terrorism
An Islamist ideologue, Lebanese Yousuf Baadarani has authored many books on conflict and Islam. He believes that while terrorists could be a state, a group or an individual, there is no such thing as Islamic terrorists. - Mahan Abedin (Dec 22, '09)

Hariri's Syria visit sets Lebanon on its way
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's groundbreaking visit to Syria is a turning point in the often fractious relations between the neighboring countries. The trip might have upset some in Hariri's ruling alliance, but in the much bigger picture, he now has Damascus, along with Iran - supporters of Hezbollah - and Saudi Arabia behind him. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 22, '09)

SPEAKING FREELY
US envoy arrives as Scrooge
Lebanon started the Christmas season with hope, but a new dampener has arrived in the form of the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman. He is re-enacting old American biases against Hezbollah and is dithering about getting Israel to withdraw from a Lebanese village, lest Hezbollah get the credit. The holiday spirit is now ruined. - Franklin Lamb (Dec 22, '09)

Iran has defense headache
Talk of a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear and missile facilities continues, the latest an indication by the United States that it may not be able to restrain Israel for much longer. Iran would struggle to defend its air space, leaving a relatively small number of missiles with conventional warheads as its main weapon. - Richard M Bennett (Dec 21, '09)

Maliki makes his move on Kurdistan
Under White House pressure to deal with the issue of oil-rich Kirkuk and seeking Kurdish support in his bid for re-election in March, embattled Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will soon head north to sign a financial deal supporting the Kurdish militia there. But Kurdistan is a hornets' nest as far as Iraqi Arabs are concerned, not to mention neighboring countries. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 21, '09)

South Korea let off for nuclear deceptions
In 2004, the International Atomic Energy Agency revealed that a member state had lied and carried out covert uranium conversion and enrichment activities for more than two decades, raising legitimate suspicions of interest in a nuclear weapons program. Sounds like Iran, right? Wrong. This deception was carried out by South Korea, and the violations went unpunished. - Gareth Porter (Dec 21, '09)

Syria's youth flaunt new wealth
Western clothing and leisure brands are finding a new market among those young Syrians who can make the most of an economy that is gradually opening to the outside world. (Dec 21, '09)

BOOK REVIEW
Missing in action
One Nation Under Contract by Allison Stanger
This is a rare insight into the true nature of the outsourcing of government roles, as varied as development aid and security in conflict zones. This practice has created an accountability gap that the US government has the power and responsibility to close if the private sector is to fulfill its true potential to work for the benefit of all, the book argues. - David Isenberg (Dec 18, '09)

Iran blasts off ahead of countdown
The "smoking gun" report that accuses Iran of experimenting with a nuclear trigger device may well be a fake. Far more real are the threatened sanctions making their way through the United States Congress, and the end-December deadline for Tehran to respond to international demands on the nuclear issue. Test-firing a ballistic missile is not the kind of response expected. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 17, '09)

Domestic conflict shifts into higher gear
The uproar over former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's public insistence on Iran's need to respect popular demands and the government-staged outrage over the burning of a picture of the Islamic revolution's founder point to an ever-deepening crisis at the heart of the establishment. - Farideh Farhi (Dec 17, '09)

A heavy price for pushing troops too far
There are many symptoms that the United States military, still involved in two distant, grueling wars, is stressed out - from its rising suicide rate and mental health crisis to its repeated tours of duty and falling standards. A retired lieutenant colonel pulls all the warning signs together and offers a portrait of an army in decline. - William Astore (Dec 16, '09)

Stressed soldiers forced to go absent
With his personal life falling apart after returning from duty in Iraq, Eric Jasinski sought assistance from the military to treat his post-traumatic stress disorder. He received short shrift, and chose to go absent without leave to receive the help he needed. - Dahr Jamail (Dec 16, '09)

US races against time over Iran
The United States House of Representatives passed a bill on Tuesday that would sanction companies selling refined petroleum to Iran. The legislation is likely to be stalled, though, as President Barack Obama scrambles to gather international support over Tehran ahead of a year-end deadline. New accusations about Iran's nuclear program add to the pressure. (Dec 16, '09)

Iraq's oil auction hits the jackpot
Russia and China were the big winners in the latest auction of Iraq's oil rights, as was the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki; United States companies were conspicuous by their absence. If the oil starts to flow as now promised, the next few years should see the rise of a relatively wealthy, Shi'ite-controlled Iraq, friendly with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Does this make Maliki the new Saddam Hussein? - Pepe Escobar (Dec 15, '09)

Surprises aplenty in selloff
The impression that the West would renew its dominance of the Iraqi oil extraction industry has been shattered with the latest auction of oil rights, with Russia's Lukoil leading the winning bids. Other successful parties include interests from as far afield as Malaysia and Angola. - Robert M Cutler (Dec 15, '09)

Hariri visit seals a good year for Syria
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's proposed visit to Syria this month concludes a year in which Damascus has rediscovered itself in world affairs. While the anti-Syrian craze in Beirut has been silenced, however, broader issues, particularly regarding Israel, Iraq and Iran, will be much more difficult to negotiate. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 14, '09)

The dust bowl of Babylon
As Iraq strives to emerge from years of war, crippling water shortages may be the next great threat. Drought is driving thousands of people away from the fabled southern marshlands, but inept water management, collapsing infrastructure and the government's inability to stand up to its water-hoarding neighbors also play their part. - Martin Chulov (Dec 14, '09)

Turmoil reveals Iraqi reliance on US
Following the massive bombings in Iraq last week, a widespread belief that politicians cannot run the country alone, that is, without the United States, has been reinforced. Accusations that the US had a hand in helping push through a controversial election law have only added to this perception. - Abeer Mohammed and Neil Arun (Dec 14, '09)

Clear losers and winners in Baghdad
As much as Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki tries to shift the blame following this week's multiple bomb attacks in Baghdad, apart from the tragic death toll, he and his State of Law Coalition are the big losers as the countdown begins to March elections. Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr can only gain from Maliki's wavering. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 11, '09)

US a step closer to Iran sanctions
While a United States deadline nears for a breakthrough on Iran's nuclear program, the US Congress is pushing through legislation imposing tough economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The bill has raised fears it will alienate the Iranian people and key international allies, while its timing may derail the US's attempts at engagement. (Dec 10, '09)

Over Iran, enemies become friends
For very different reasons, neo-conservatives in the United States, the opposition in Iran and much of the Iranian diaspora are pushing for regime - or system - change in Iran. This has effectively forced Tehran to stall on negotiations over its nuclear program, but in the longer term, it's a dangerous game. - Grace Nasri (Dec 10, '09)

Nuclear rights and human rights in Iran
The government in Iran has acted swiftly and forcibly against student protests, mindful of the unrest that followed the contested results of June's presidential election. There are definite costs, though, to national security interests by this suppression of political rights at home: Iran's opponents will be emboldened in their drive to curtail the country's nuclear rights. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 9, '09)

Oil export fears cloud Tehran's outlook
Iran's ailing economy has led to suggestions in parliament that President Mahmud Ahmadinejad could be impeached. Behind the concern is a warning by the country's own researchers that oil exports, key to the government budget, may dry up if US$4.5 billion is not invested in the energy industry. - Sayeh Sabz (Dec 9, '09)

SPEAKING FREELY
An Xmas guide to the US's Lebanon policy
As the 12 days of Christmas rapidly approach, it's not clear exactly who the Barack Obama administration will be able to engage in Lebanon's new government of national unity. If Washington sticks with its "no Hezbollah" policy, a number of heavyweights in the cabinet will be excluded from any talks. - Franklin Lamb (Dec 9, '09)

INTERVIEW
Hezbollah 'more than resistance'
Sheikh Maher Hammoud is one of few senior Sunni clerics in Lebanon who sides with Iranian-backed, Shi'ite-led Hezbollah, noting that the movement offers something far greater than any classification of Sunni and Shi'ite. He is also friends with the Muslim Brotherhood, "despite their dreadful mistakes". - Mahan Abedin (Dec 8, '09)

COMMENT
The hypocrisy of al-Demoqratia
In the latest incident of Muslims being negatively targeted in Western countries, Switzerland has banned the construction of minarets. Bizarrely, the ban was carried out through "democratic" channels and justified in the name of democracy on the basis of upholding the principles of secularism and Western values. - Ramzy Baroud (Dec 7, '09)

BOOK REVIEW
'Dialogue of the duff'
US Foreign Policy and Iran by Donette Murray
Talking past each other - "dialogue of the duff" - has been a salient feature of United States-Iran relations over the past 30 years, this intimately detailed account of how the US has handled Tehran argues. The book makes essential reading, even though it lacks an in-depth investigation of the Iranian side. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 4, '09)

Baghdad struggles over banned books
Iraq's illegal book publishers are thriving. Police estimate at least 13 printing presses publish illegal materials in the western province of al-Anbar, a former stronghold of insurgents influenced by al-Qaeda. It's a market Baghdad wants to stamp out, as the illicit books often promote militant ideology. - Uthman al-Mukhtar (Dec 4, '09)

Iran left out in the cold
Notably absent from President Obama's Afghan speech were references to other stakeholders in the region - especially Iran. Apart from the role Tehran can play regarding security issues, as long as the bulk of the Afghan drug trade passes through Iran, the country can't afford to sit idly by. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 3, '09)

ElBaradei's last hurrah on Iran
Mohamed ElBaradei on Monday stepped down after 12 years as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, leaving behind a growing crisis over Iran's nuclear program. ElBaradei's crowning glory was to have been his fuel-for-fuel plan for Iran's low-enriched uranium. Instead, the initiative has resulted in a "window of opportunity" rapidly closing. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 1, '09)

US hardens its stance
Iran's announcement that it will build 10 new nuclear enrichment plants, made in response to demands it halt work on its Qom facility, has led to the United States indicating a much tougher line, while hardline Iranian lawmakers are calling for Tehran to leave nuclear treaties. - Jim Lobe (Dec 1, '09)

Beware the winds of December
Slight but highly significant movements are taking place in the Middle East. There's Turkey's shift in focus away from the United States and the European Union, a weakening "southern tier" - Saudi Arabia and Egypt - and a growing realization that US-led sanctions on Iran will fail. But the most significant change will follow calculated new Israeli revelations regarding Syrian nuclear projects. - Alastair Crooke (Dec 1, '09)

Palestinian power play heats up
Speculation is growing that Israel will free Marwan Barghouti, the most popular Palestinian leader since Yasser Arafat, in exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Barghouti would almost certainly win elections to fill the vacuum created by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' imminent departure, which is why many in the Fatah and Hamas camps would rather see him remain in jail. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 30, '09)

CHAN AKYA
Dubai, debt and a
return to reality
The trouble with debt-burdened Dubai isn't that its woes could trigger serious shocks around the global financial system. Rather, that irrespective of liquidity conditions, the world remains an unforgiving place for those who borrowed too much and gave up too little in return. Various other notions, such as "too big to fail" and "implicit guarantee", will soon fall by the wayside. (Nov 30, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
Welcome to the Luladinejad axis
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's warm embrace of visiting Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said it all - this is how to make progress between countries. And as Lula made clear his support of Iran's stance over nuclear power, business leaders were adding depth to the warming relations. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 25, '09)

BOOK REVIEW
Cutting through the talk
Negotiating With Iran by John W Limbert
The author, the Barack Obama administration's newly-appointed point man on Iran, shares a wealth of insights and recommendations in the cognitive map of Iranian negotiators. A major fault of the book is an inadequate exploration of Iran's own strategic outlook. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 25, '09)

Acting while avoiding action in Iran
With Iran rejecting a proposal from the "Iran Six" countries to ship its low-enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment, the group is now considering the next step: sanctions. The ultimate virtue of sanctions is that they provide a platform between acquiescence and war, though they don't always work out as intended. (Nov 24, '09)

Shift towards more sanctions on Iran
While Iran is engaged in its biggest-ever military exercises, including tests of its air defense system, the nations dealing with Tehran's nuclear program are undergoing a significant shift, from dialogue towards more - and much tougher - sanctions. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 23, '09)

Out of Iraq, into the Gulf
The United States may (or may not) be pulling out of Iraq, but militarily speaking, through US sites and those of its key regional partners, it is planning to get deeper into the Gulf region, from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to Jordan and Oman. - Nick Turse(Nov 23, '09)

SPENGLER
When the cat's away ...
With the cat in semi-retirement, the mice are not only playing, but growing to cat-like stature. From Iran, Turkey, Palestine, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Russia, the Barack Obama administration so far has shown no action except lockjaw; the great decisions of the world are being taken outside Washington.(Nov 23, '09)

Obama returns focus to the Middle East
With his East Asia tour out of the way, US President Barack Obama must now confront the growing problems in the Middle East. Top among these are Israel's approval last week of the construction of 900 housing units in an East Jerusalem Palestinian neighborhood, dealing a perhaps fatal blow to the Oslo framework that has guided the Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" since 1993. - Jim Lobe (Nov 23, '09)

The elephant in India and Iran's room
Try as India and Iran may to halt the downward slide in their relations, cooperation in the all-important energy sector remains stuck in a rut. Negotiations between the two countries during the recent visit of Iran's foreign minister made "good progress", though apprehension over drawing American ire ultimately stands in India's way. - Sudha Ramachandran (Nov 20, '09)

BOOK REVIEW
Constructing the Oriental image
The Sum of All Heresies by Frederick Quinn
This book provides a broad exploration of the evolution of the Middle East image through European eyes from near antiquity to the present. Viewed as the embodiment of barbarity during Roman times, "Orientals" came to be seen as permanently inferior to Europeans, needing to be controlled and exploited. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (Nov 20, '09)

Iraqi elections thrown off track
Vice President Tarek al-Hashemi, by using his veto to block an important election law, has thrown Iraq once again into political crisis. Parliament will have to try to sort out the mess the Sunni politician has made if elections are to go ahead in January. The scheduled draw-down of United States troops is also now in doubt. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 20, '09)

'The devil's pipe ruins the soul of prayer'
Politicians in the days of Saddam Hussein tried to harness the music of Nasiriya. Nowadays, militiamen harass the musicians who live in the southern Iraqi city famed for its singers. Where once they strutted their stuff on the stage, singers are now reduced to humming to themselves while waiting tables. - Wisam Tahir (Nov 20, '09)

Secrecy shrouds Iran's contingency centers
Evidence produced by the International Atomic Energy Agency suggests that Iran's Qom uranium enrichment plant was constructed on one of many sites earmarked as early as 2002 as a "contingency center" in the event of a United States air attack. The big issue now is at what point the center evolved from a series of tunnels into a nuclear facility, and whether there are others. - Gareth Porter (Nov 18, '09)

US takes aim over Jordan's shoulder
The Jordan International Police Training Center, a quiet and unassuming base on the surface, has become a key part in the regional designs of the United States and its allies in the Middle East. Since 2003, the facility has trained more than 50,000 police officers bound for Iraq and beyond. - Jon Elmer (Nov 18, '09)

Bans, burqinis and bad hijab
When it comes to fashion, many Muslim females are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. In Tajikistan, they're banned from wearing head scarves until adulthood. In Iran, they're in trouble if they don't wear them. Many women just wish they had a choice, while one scoffs at suggestions that flowing veils are a security threat, "I can hide a bomb in my undies." - Kristin Deasy (Nov 17, '09)

SPEAKING FREELY
The benefits of a nuclear Iran
The United States should simply give Iran the bomb. A nuclear Iran would restore parity to the balance of power in the Middle East and may end up stabilizing the region far more than the continued tensions over Israeli and American objections to Iran's nuclear ambitions. - Aetius Romulous (Nov 17, '09)

Test of wills over Iran plan
The fuel-for-fuel plan under which Iran would send the bulk of its low-enriched uranium to Russia and France to be further processed for use in a medical reactor in Tehran is still on the table. It is likely to remain there unless its main backers, including the United States, introduce some compromises. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 16, '09)

A witches' cauldron brews in Yemen
Saudi Arabia is on the offensive in Iraq and Afghanistan to counter Iranian influence. The Saudis, though, are on the defensive in Yemen, which has become a safe haven for al-Qaeda elements to make incursions into Saudi Arabia. In addition, the Shi'ite Houthi clan has made the Saudi-Yemeni border highly volatile. Tehran, while doing nothing adventurous, is highly pleased. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 13, '09)

Right seizes on Fort Hood killings
As much as senior military and Barack Obama administration officials are trying to pre-empt an anti-Muslim backlash following the shooting spree by a Muslim soldier at Fort Hood, right-wing pundits and politicians have been quick to label the incident an act of Islamic terrorism, and demand radical changes. (Nov 13, '09)

Welcome home, war
Wars, even the most distant ones, come home in strange, unnerving ways - as Americans have just discovered with the killings at Fort Hood. In less noticed but no less crucial ways, America's wars are now coming home, with techniques developed in the crucibles of Iraq and Afghanistan migrating from Baghdad and Kandahar. - Alfred W McCoy (Nov 13, '09)

Page turns for Baghdad's
ancient book center
Two years after a bombing brought death and destruction to Baghdad's legendary al-Muttanabi street, the centuries-old center of the city's book trade, enthusiasts from youngsters to artists to election candidates are returning to browse, buy and socialize in the refurbished and, for security reasons, traffic-free zone. - Jinan Farhan (Nov 13, '09)

The 'myth' of a counter-revolution in Iran
The crisis sparked by Iran's allegedly rigged presidential election has more than ever exposed the reformists as confused ideologues who for material, political and ideological reasons are unable to definitively break with the ruling establishment. But it is the street protesters who are killing off the reform movement. - Mahan Abedin (Nov 11, '09)

Hezbollah back in the Lebanon fray
After five months of bickering, Hezbollah got its way in Lebanon on Monday with the formation of a cabinet to its liking. The end of the impasse has a lot to do with Syria and Saudi Arabia, which want peace in Lebanon while they concentrate on hotter areas, such as Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 10, '09)

Iran and Saudi Arabia drawn to Yemen
When rebels backed by Iran last week crossed from Yemen into Saudi Arabia and captured some territory, Riyadh reacted swiftly, and with extreme force that included hot pursuit into Yemen. The danger now is that Saudi Arabia and Iran will be pulled further into Yemen, which already has a fight with al-Qaeda on its hands. - Olivier Guitta (Nov 10, '09)

'Undeployables' sent to the Afghan front
As the United States debates whether to send tens of thousands of extra troops to Afghanistan, an already overstretched military is struggling to meet its deployment numbers. One place it is targeting is military personnel who go absent without leave, and who then are caught or turn themselves in. Many of these soldiers are already "damaged or even broken". - Dahr Jamail and Sarah Lazare (Nov 9, '09)

When war comes home
The massive Fort Hood military base in Texas, where a major last week gunned down 13 people, is one of the most heavily deployed facilities for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Fort Hood soldiers have also accounted for more suicides than any other army post since the invasion of Iraq in 2003; this year alone, the base is averaging over 10 suicides a month. - Dahr Jamail (Nov 9, '09)

Turkey runs hot and cold
When it comes to national security, Turkey will choose the path on which it feels most secure - whether this means getting friendly with Iran or dragging its heels on Cyprus. This route, though, takes Turkey away from the United States, the European Union and the NATO alliance, burning the very bridges Ankara struggled for years to build. - Andrew Novo (Nov 9, '09)

Israel up in arms over weapons seizure
Israel has spared no effort in bringing the world's attention to its seizure of a ship carrying tonnes of apparently Iranian-supplied weapons bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon, via Egypt and Syria. If history is any guide, the incident could be used as a pretext for waging another war on Hezbollah, or even a strike against Iran. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 6, '09)

Tennis diplomacy on the table in Bali
If the Mohammedans won't come to the mountain, then the mountain - or at least a stone from it - can come to the Mohammedans - or their closest neighboring compatriots. The visit of a female Israeli tennis player to Bali, a resort island of Muslim-majority Indonesia, has echoes of the sports diplomacy trail famously blazed by American and Chinese ping-pong players. - Muhammad Cohen (Nov 6, '09)

Is Obama's Iran policy doomed?
China has a massive investment in Iranian energy and is willing to supply gasoline to that country in the face of United States threats of sanctions. The attitude of China - and Russia - towards Tehran's nuclear plans also varies radically from Washington's. In the face of this, US President Barack Obama's current Iran policy is unlikely to work. - Dilip Hiro (Nov 5, '09)

Iran looks to Argentina for nuclear fuel
Iran hopes to revive nuclear ties with Argentina that have been stalled since Tehran was accused of involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires. Suspicious of a United Nations-backed proposal that its uranium be processed in France, Iran prefers the Argentina option as it would shut out Europe and see the United States become a more central player. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 5, '09)

SPEAKING FREELY
How Eurocentric is your day?
A Boston professor, teaching his students about Eurocentric biases in Western accounts of the rise of the global economy, poses a simple question to get his point across. Can they get through a typical day without running into ideas, institutions, values, technologies and products that originated outside the West? The answer is, of course, no. - M Shahid Alam (Nov 5, '09)

Obama's world outreach teetering
Just months after well-received speeches in Turkey and Egypt, setbacks from Afghanistan to the West Bank to Pakistan, Iraq and Iran have seen belief plunge in the Muslim world over United States President Barack Obama and his plans for progress. With this, anti-US sentiment is back on the rise. - Jim Lobe (Nov 4, '09)

Iraqis divide ahead of elections
Any hopes that sectarianism was on the way out in Iraq died with the massive August 19 and October 25 terror attacks in Baghdad. Sects and communities are once again divided, and the coalitions that have been formed to contest January's elections are a clear reflection of these poisoned waters. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 4, '09)

INTERVIEW
Ex-hostage 'sick and tired' of rhetoric
Bruce Laingen, a former United States diplomat among those held hostage in Tehran for 444 days, agrees that the US and Iran should find a basis for a new relationship. But first Iran needs to end its anti-American tirades, he says. - Golnaz Esfandiari (Nov 4, '09)

Iraqi shock turns to fury over bombings
As anger intensifies over last week’s double bombing in Baghdad, Iraqis are making it clear they blame Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government. But despite widespread acknowledgement that the latest violence will affect voter turnout at January's polls, Maliki still fancies his re-election chances. - Ali Karim (Nov 3, '09)

Refugees turn their backs on Iraq
Since Iraq descended into a living nightmare in 2003, about 1.4 million refugees have streamed over the border into Syria - particularly in the wake of escalating sectarian attacks. It's tough going in the adopted country, especially for Christians such as Leila Johana, but she is not going back to Iraq. - Stephen Starr (Nov 3, '09)

Syrian bonuses bring little change
Efforts by the Syrian government to boost the economy by giving bonuses to civil servants put welcome cash into their pockets for basic needs and helped businesses lift sales - but drew criticism for being a short-term fix to silence the hungry. (Nov 2, '09)

Ill winds over Iran's nuclear draft
The contents of Iran's response to a fuel-for-fuel draft proposal from the International Atomic Energy Agency for Tehran's low-enriched uranium have not been officially disclosed. Already, though, both inside Iran and in the United States, the initiative is under attack. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 30, '09)

A turkey hunt in Iraq
Rather than finding those who struck at Baghdad's Green Zone in August, killing 100 people, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki searched for political scapegoats to protect his own neck. There has been more of the same in the wake of Sunday's bombings that killed at least 150 people, leaving the terrorists at will to strike again. Sami Moubayed (Oct 29, '09)

Britain says Syria deal worth waiting for
Syria has delayed signing a long-awaited partnership agreement with the European Union, complaining it did not have enough time to prepare for this week's scheduled ceremony. Britain's Foreign Secretary David Miliband tells Asia Times Online that Damascus should be allowed time, given its emerging importance. - Sakhr Al-Makhadhi (Oct 28, '09)

Welcome to 2025
An affiliate of the United States Central Intelligence Agency has predicted that America's global pre-eminence will gradually disappear over the next 15 or so years. Six recent developments - including reports on America's economic rivals exploring a diminished role for the US dollar and Chinese rebuffs of the US over strengthening sanctions on Iran - indicate we are already entering that era. - Michael T Klare (Oct 27, '09)

Baghdad blasts echo far and wide
The twin suicide bomb attacks in Iraq on Sunday that killed 132 people and injured 700 others have dramatically shattered the relative calm the country has enjoyed over the past 18 months. One of the first major consequences could be delays to the parliamentary elections scheduled for January, while the reverberations may yet be felt in Afghanistan. - Sami Moubayed(Oct 26, '09)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Failed war president or prince of peace?
Should he take the peace-maker route, United States President Barack Obama stands a chance of success. History suggests that the path of war will be a surefire loser. The past half-century makes clear what the US military can achieve - destruction and mayhem; and what it has failed to do in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan - deliver a genuine and lasting victory. - Nick Turse(Oct 26, '09)

US threats prompted Iran nuclear facility
The United States has accused Iran of duplicity over the construction of a second uranium enrichment facility at Qom, and says Tehran only revealed its existence once the Iranians realized that Washington knew about it. Yet US intelligence estimates tell a very different story, one in which Iran carefully reacted to what appeared to be an imminent US strike against it. - Gareth Porter (Oct 26, '09)

Hour of decision on Iran
Iran, Russia, the United States and France are considering a draft agreement that would see low-enriched Iranian uranium further processed in Russia and France before being returned to Iran for use at a research reactor. The deal has the potential to significantly defuse the crisis over Iran's nuclear program, but Tehran is wary of making any hasty decisions. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 23, '09)

INTERVIEW
Prevention better than cure?
The British government's counter-terrorism policy, "Preventing Violent Extremism", has been accused of being used to gather intelligence about people's political views and other information related to their personal circumstances. Dr Abdul Wahid, a key player in the British Muslim community, offers his views on the "sinister aims and ideological agenda" of this strategy, and provides an alternative approach. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 23, '09)

The spy who lost his thumb drives
American space scientist, missile defense expert and leading lunar researcher, Stewart Nozette, arrested this week in a Federal Bureau of Investigation sting, is known to have expressed his willingness to work for Israeli intelligence. What is not known is what he did with two thumb drives he took to "Country A", which is speculated to be India. - Peter J Brown (Oct 22, '09)

Azerbaijan and Turkey clash over energy
A public cry of "no more cheap gas to Turkey" by Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliev has exacerbated rising Azeri-Turkish energy tensions. Ankara's efforts to play different suppliers against one other - and position itself as a regional energy hub - are not a fatal blow to the stalled Nabucco pipeline, but the rival White Stream may come more to the fore. - R M Cutler (Oct 22, '09)

Iran trapped in a ring of unrest
Whether the United States directed Jundallah to conduct the weekend's terrorist attack in Iran is irrelevant. What is significant is that the Americans have created - through their actions in Afghanistan and Pakistan - a strategic environment in which such attacks are both practically and ideologically possible. If Iran is to rid itself of Jundallah, and the close ties the group has to organized crime, it has to actively lobby for the exit of foreign forces from the region. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 21, '09)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
A 'long war' in the blowback world
America tends to think of "blowback" as something in the past, something that ended with the attacks of September 11, 2001. But in the Greater Middle East, one lesson seems clear enough: for 30 years, the United States has been deeply involved in creating, financing and sometimes arming an entire blowback world that will strike again. - Tom Engelhardt (Oct 21, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
Jundallah versus the mullahtariat
Sunday's suicide bombing in Iran has set off a war: it's the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps against Pakistani Balochistan-based Jundallah and the massive drug trafficking network in the area. In terms of the turbulent, internal political equation in Iran, the show of force against a key element of the mullahtariat could not be more devastating. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 20, '09)

Saudi-Iranian hostility hits boiling point
Escalating tensions between Riyadh and Tehran may have played a role in Sunday's suicide strike that killed seven senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as well as 42 other people in Iran's southeast. Riyadh is concerned that Iran's growing power will erode Saudi pre-eminence in the region, and the Saudis might have a vested interest in disrupting the United States-Iran nuclear talks. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 20, '09)

Iran's nuclear talks also hit 
The strike in Iran raises the possibility of Iran retaliating with attacks on bases inside Pakistan from which the main suspects operate. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad will also now be under pressure to unravel the recent gains made with the United States in talks over Tehran's nuclear program. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 20, '09)

Sunnis present a new face in Iraq
The Iraqi Accordance Front, which has announced the formation of a new-look, all-Sunni coalition, believes it can make a major breakthrough in January's elections, even without the inclusion of a number of heavyweights. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 20, '09)

SPENGLER
When the cat's away,
the mice kill each other
It is most astonishing that official Washington seems oblivious to the crack-up of American influence occurring in front of its eyes. Without America to mediate and restrain, each of the small powers in the Middle East has no choice but to test its strength against the others. Those who wish to reduce American power may get what they wish for, but they might not like it. (Oct 19, '09)

Goldstone as a touchstone for Obama
Attempts by the United States and Israel to bury the Goldstone report on war crimes committed during the war in Gaza - which on Friday was approved by the United Nations Human Rights Council - could damage US President Barack Obama's credibility among Arabs and Muslims as someone willing to stand up to Israel. - Ian Williams (Oct 19, '09)

Washington presses Iran sanctions
The United States Congress is pushing through long-pending legislation to impose new unilateral sanctions on Iran. Supporters of the sanctions claim they give President Barack Obama more leverage in upcoming talks with Tehran about its nuclear program, but critics say the bans may prove counter-productive to any possible diplomatic engagement. - Jim Lobe (Oct 19, '09)

Palestinian refugees reject 'sell-out' deal
The more than 400,000 Palestinian refugees spread across a network of 12 camps in Lebanon are deeply politically divided and factionalized. Yet almost to a person, they are as defiant as ever about the right to return, they tell Asia Times Online. They also remain an insurmountable obstacle to any "sell-out" deal on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 16, '09)

The 'other' Kurdistan seethes with rage
While Iraqi Kurdistan elects its own parliament and forges oil contracts independent of Baghdad, other ethnic Kurdish insurgents from Iran, Syria and Turkey are flooding into remote redoubts in the fearsome Qandil Mountains to battle nation-states that have persecuted them for decades. With Turkish warplanes above and Iranian artillery firing over the border, Asia Times Online traced a torturous path to speak with Kurdish guerrillas. - Derek Henry Flood (Oct 15, '09)

Benchmarks prove elusive in Iran talks
Russia has politely yet firmly rebuffed United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's bid to secure Russian support for tougher sanctions on Iran if talks on its nuclear program fail. This will please those in the administration of President Barack Obama who prefer dialogue to threats. The administration, though, does not speak with one voice. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 14, '09)

Turkey won't play with Israel
Israel believes Turkey's cancellation of joint war games is linked to lingering anger in Ankara over Israel's offensive on Hamas in the Gaza strip, while Turkey is trying to downplay what is clearly a blip in one of the region's most strategic - and unlikely - relationships. (Oct 14, '09)

Arab world befuddled by Obama's Nobel
The news that United States President Barack Obama had won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize ripped through the Arab world, launching a vociferous debate in the media, on the streets and in the upper echelons of power. Many snapped that a Nobel is not granted for good intentions, but others insist his predecessor George W Bush was so bad, all Obama had to do to win was show up. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 13, '09)

Gaza report seals Abbas' political fate
The United Nations report on the 2008-2009 Gaza War wasn't well received by the United States or Israel, which call it one-sided. What was more unexpected was an about-face by President Mahmud Abbas' Palestinian National Authority to seek deferral of a UN debate on the findings. The news has ripped through the Arab world, destroying any remaining credibility he had. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 9, '09)

Kabul 2009: War of the Worlds redux
Sometimes it takes 66 pages to tell the story of a foreign invasion - as in the case of Afghan War commander General Stanley McChrystal's recent report to the United States Congress. Sometimes a century old novel can do the trick. H G Wells' 1898 sci-fi classic The War of the Worlds, old as it is, offers a rare example of how Afghans may see the high-tech American war machine. - Tom Engelhardt (Oct 9, '09)

INTERVIEW
Hizbut Tahrir's view on Lebanese politics
The trans-national and pan-Islamic party Hizbut Tahrir was founded in 1953 in Palestine to re-establish the Islamic Caliphate that collapsed in 1924. Since then the party has spread all over the Muslim world and is now estimated to have hundreds of thousands of members. Osman Bakhach, deputy chairman of Hizbut Tahrir's Executive Committee, explains why the idea of Muslim unity may be unstoppable. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 9, '09)

IAEA's not-so-secret satellite game
Iran's decision to reject a protocol enabling the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct spot inspections of its nuclear sites means enforcing safeguard agreements will become more risky and more satellite-driven. Israel's desire to engage India's space-based surveillance assets is also likely to intensify. - Peter J Brown (Oct 9, '09)

When 5+1 = 1+1 in the Iran equation
Despite accusations from the right-wing in the United States that Iran duped the Barack Obama administration into serious concessions at last week's nuclear talks, bilateral Iran-US dialogue, unencumbered by the influence of third parties, remains the clearest path to easing nuclear tensions. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 8, '09)

Yemen: A slogan and six wars
The Zaydi rebellion in northern Yemen is not a proxy ideological war between Saudi Arabia and Iran nor a response to state-sponsored suppression of Shi'ites. The slogan "Death to America" is integral to the rebel movement, illustrating how fierce anti-United States sentiment in the Middle East is creating new insurgencies. - Khaled Fattah (Oct 8, '09)

Dollar exit for oil trade?
A further shadow has been cast over the future of the US dollar on reports that Arab oil producers and customers including China and Japan may soon use other means of settling their huge fuel accounts. - F William Engdahl (Oct 8, '09)

Leaked Iran paper exposes IAEA rift
Excerpts of an internal draft report reveal that the International Atomic Energy Agency has only suspicions - not real evidence - that Iran has been working on nuclear weapons. This contradicts the agency's earlier claim that was based on leaked documents, and there is now a fierce struggle in the nuclear watchdog about whether the leaked material is genuine or fake. - Gareth Porter (Oct 7, '09)

US public skeptical - and hawkish - on Iran
The results of a new poll showing that the majority of Americans believe diplomatic engagement with Iran will fail and that Washington should be prepared to use military force to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon clearly play into the hands of the hawks pressuring President Barack Obama. Other elements of the poll, though, show support for the president's policy of dialogue. - Jim Lobe (Oct 7, '09)

Obama trapped behind wall of containment
United States President Barack Obama's troubles in the Middle East are not caused primarily by "bad guys" such as Iran, nor by Israel's supposed power or that of the domestic "Israeli lobby". Instead, he's trapped in the conundrum that's built into US containment strategy. No matter what other nations do or don't do, everything that looks like it might be a solution only turns out to create new problems. - Ira Chernus (Oct 7, '09)

Syria, Saudi Arabia plot peace path
Saudi King Abdullah's first visit to Damascus since assuming the throne in 2005 signals a rebirth of the historic friendship between Syria and Saudi Arabia. A mutual dislike for Iraq’s prime minister and Syria's warming ties with the United States have helped bring the countries together, and to position them to map out the future of the Middle East. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 7, '09)

Seeds of change in Iraqi Kurdistan
Leaders from Iraqi Kurdistan's upstart political opposition, the Movement for Change, say the party's departure from traditional clan-based politics led to its unprecedented success at recent regional elections. The group is part of an unexpected democratic progress that has forced Turkey, Iran and Syria into a strategic rethink. - Derek Henry Flood (Oct 5, '09)

New doubt on US's Iran plant claim
Washington's charge that construction on Iran's second uranium-enrichment facility is part of a covert decision to violate its International Atomic Energy obligations is being questioned. Further analysis of satellite photos of the site suggests Iran is not in the wrong. - Gareth Porter (Oct 5, '09)

Iraq's Maliki gathers his forces
Hard on the heels of the formation of a new Iraqi party comprising Shi'ite heavyweights to contest January's elections, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has unveiled his own new coalition, which he touts as cross-confessional and secular. This it might be, but it comprises mostly political lightweights. - Sami Moubayed(Oct 5, '09)

October surprise in US-Iran relations
The meeting on Thursday between Iran and the six countries dealing with its nuclear case resulted in agreement for a follow-up encounter, in itself an important development, given the heated atmosphere in the leadup to the talks. As significant, the United States and Iran made an initial direct contact, raising hopes of a real breakthrough. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 2, '09)

Water disputes strain Turkey-Iraq ties
Turkey sees the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which originate in its eastern mountains, as the key to its energy needs and socio-economic development. But its dam and irrigation projects have soured relations with drought-ridden, downstream neighbor Iraq, which feels Turkey is strangling its precious water supply. - Patrick Wrigley (Oct 1, '09)

A MANUFACTURED CRISIS, Part 3
The case for Iran
Fiery rhetoric aside, Iran's leaders are now being cautious, and their military intentions are defensive. They know all too well how sanctions would cripple the economy, and the Iranian people have no desire to replicate the horror of the defensive war they waged against Iraqi for most of the 1980s. - Jack A Smith (Oct 1, '09)
This is the concluding article in a three-part report.
PART 1: The facts of the matter
PART 2:It's sanctions or bust

Kurdish lessons leave Iraqi Arabs cold
Iraq's Arabs and Kurds share the same country, but they know little of each other's history and even less of each other's language. As their shared struggle against colonial Britain drifts out of memory, internal tensions over land and resources threaten to erupt into conflict. - Husam al-Saray (Oct 1, '09)

A MANUFACTURED CRISIS, Part 2
It's sanctions or bust
Something about the claims by the United States and its allies that Iran's nuclear program is intended to create nuclear weapons just doesn't smell right; there's obviously more than meets the eye. Whatever it is, the Barack Obama administration - of all the options on the table - wants at a minimum to impose stringent sanctions on Iran. - Jack A Smith (Sep 30, '09)
This is the second article in a three-part report.
(PART 1 is here: The facts of the matter)

Damascus on a familiar road
Marking the first visit by a senior Syrian official since 2003, Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad was in Washington this week for high-level talks. Damascus certainly wants an end to the sanctions imposed on it, but it has a bigger goal in mind and one which it has steadfastly pursued - to get back the Golan Heights. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 30, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
It's bomb, bomb, bomb Iran time
Israel, sundry Sunni Arab puppet rulers and dictators, the American right and the European right, these all fear Iran's regional clout and want to castigate Tehran in Thursday's nuclear talks. Iran's nuclear dossier - and new revelations about a second, not-so-secret enrichment plant - could not be a more convenient cover story for regime change. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 30, '09)

A MANUFACTURED CRISIS, Part 1
The facts of the matter
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has shrugged off the fuss over Iran's construction of a second uranium-enrichment plant, saying the United States and other countries are acting in bad faith just before talks on Tehran's nuclear program. "We have done nothing wrong," Ahmadinejad said. - Jack A Smith (Sep 29, '09)
This is the first article in a three-part report.

Plenty to talk about
Iran, as if on cue, ahead of international talks this week on its nuclear program, on Sunday and Monday test-fired both long-range and short-range missiles. Coming hard on the heels of reports of a second Iranian plant to enrich uranium, Tehran has some explaining to do. - Jim Lobe (Sep 28, '09)

Ba'athist rejects Iraq's bomb claims
Amid escalating Iraq-Syria tensions, Ba'ath party member Nizar Samarai denies the Iraqi claim that elements of his party sheltered by Syria carried out last month's devastating "Black Wednesday" bombing in Baghdad. He concedes his party is fomenting instability in Iraq, but says only al-Qaeda has the resources to implement such a huge strike. - Stephen Starr (Sep 28, '09)

Medvedev jumps the gun on Iran
Amid the fuss over revelations of a "secret" Iranian nuclear enrichment facility, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has veered sharply to the side of those seeking tougher action against Tehran. He may well have been premature, and Moscow will now have some dexterous backtracking to do. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Sep 28, '09)

Two Ss, and a W in Beirut
A new phrase entered the Lebanese political vocabulary this year in reference to the increasing domestic influence of Saudi Arabia, Syria and Washington, though some are uncertain how committed US President Barack Obama is these days. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has realized that any progress in Beirut must run through Damascus. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 28, '09)

The world picks sides ahead of Iran talks
This week's United Nations summit has become a lively arena for Iran, the United States and their respective allies and opponents to define and defend their positions on Tehran's nuclear standoff before the international community. Momentum for more stringent sanctions, should October 1 talks in Istanbul fail, is rapidly building. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 25, '09)

Moscow holds the line on Iran sanctions
There was just enough in Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's words spoken in his hotel suite on Wednesday about a harder line on Iran for the White House to claim that had Russia bent, finally, in Washington's direction. Even as the President Barack Obama administration was savoring its success, however, China was there to spoil the moment. - M K Bhadrakumar (Sep 25, '09)

Missile madness targets the money
President Barack Obama's decision to shelve plans for an anti-missile missile system in the Czech Republic and Poland continues a decades-long, military and political debate frequently set in terms little more sophisticated than "mine is bigger than yours". None of it is real, except the money, which is very real and very huge. - Julian Delasantellis (Sep 25, '09)

The world according to Gaddafi
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's epic 94-minute speech at the United Nations General Assembly touched on everything from swine flu and Western colonialism to the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan and an alleged failure by the UN to prevent 65 wars. The at times bizarre performance all but overshadowed the assembly's agenda of regional conflicts and climate change. (Sep 24, '09)

Netanyahu and Obama: Who's fooling who?
Israel is at ease following United States President Barack Obama's decision to shelve his demand for a freeze on Israeli settlements on the West Bank and East Jerusalem. This, however, could simply mean that the White House has decided to focus its efforts and engage directly in permanent-status talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians. - Jim Lobe (Sep 24, '09)

Calm before the storm of US-Iran talks
Negotiators for the "Iran Six" nations are scrambling to refine their strategies ahead of October 1 nuclear talks with Tehran now that US President Barack Obama has dropped plans for a missile shield in Europe. The key question is, will sanctions and threats be enough to compel Iran to reconsider its nuclear program - or just serve as a pretext to war? - Shahir Shahidsaless (Sep 21, '09)

Syria - belatedly - seeks redress
Damascus has demanded that the United Nations investigate the German prosecutor responsible for a UN report implicating Syria in the February 14, 2005, assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik al-Hariri. Accusing the report of bias and falsifying evidence, Syria won't back down, despite an initial brush-off. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 21, '09)

Iran and IAEA re-enter missile row
Negotiators from Iran stopped meeting with the International Atomic Energy Agency last year when the nuclear watchdog began demanding - allegedly at the behest of the United States and Israel - access to secret military data. The design of the Shahab-3 missile's new re-entry system is of special interest, but Tehran fears any disclosure would be leaked to its enemies. - Gareth Porter (Sep 21, '09)

Iran rattled by Washington's resolve
The sudden decision by Washington to ditch its long-held dream of a missile defense shield has generated unexpected momentum for a united diplomatic front against Iran at next month's nuclear talks in Istanbul. Tehran has hardly missed this point - President Barack Obama's gambit poses a tough test for Iran's strategic acumen. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 18, '09)

Obama drops a missile bombshell
President Barack Obama's decision to scrap the longstanding plans of the United States for an anti-missile shield in the heart of Europe has opened another political front just when he is barely coping with the war in Afghanistan. Moscow will carefully weigh the "overture", and Europe, Ukraine, Georgia and Iran will huddle in anxiety to ponder the implications of what Obama has done. - M K Bhadrakumar (Sep 18, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
More questions on 9/11
Last week, on the eighth anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks on New York and Washington, Asia Times Online posed 50 unanswered questions about the immense, mysterious 9/11 riddle. Due to overwhelming reader response, here's a follow-up with 20 more questions - with a hat-tip to all readers who joined the debate. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 17, '09)

Iran bullish ahead of nuclear talks
Iran's negotiators heading to Istanbul to meet representatives of the "Iran Six" have a renewed sense of confidence. Not only is there no evidence to corroborate claims of Tehran's nuclear weapons drive, but there's fresh cynicism in the international community regarding Iran's past alleged "weaponization studies". - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 17, '09)

Israel, Hamas called to account
The United Nations mission that found there is a strong case for war crimes charges against both Israel and Hamas for acts during the 22-day war last year recommends that the parties explain themselves to the Security Council. Failing this, they could find themselves before the International Criminal Court, and even forced to make reparations. (Sep 16, '09)

Obama faces backlash over Afghanistan
United States President Barack Obama faces one of the most difficult political questions of his first year in office as the country begins to doubt its role in Afghanistan. Obama will be forced to decide whether to grant a significant troop increase at the risk of alienating many in his own party. - Jim Lobe (Sep 16, '09)

Turkey stands at Iran's side
During a visit to Iran, Turkey's foreign minister offered to host negotiations between Tehran and Western countries. Although previous such initiatives have failed, the move comes as Washington considers holding talks with Iran. Ankara's problem is to project itself as not standing on an anti-Western platform. - Saban Kardas (Sep 15, '09)

Maliki plots his next move
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has some tough decisions to make ahead of a crucial parliamentary election. Does he team up with a powerful Shi'ite-led alliance, or go it alone with his own State of Law coalition? His best bet might be to stay away from the Shi'ites and win over Sunni tribal leaders, whom he needs more than Kurds. - Abeer Mohammed (Sep 15, '09)

Crucial Iran nuclear evidence 'covered up'
Iran has submitted serious evidence that documents purportedly showing a covert Iranian nuclear weapons program are fraudulent - but the International Atomic Energy Agency has so far refused to acknowledge it. The nuclear watchdog's apparent lack of concern contrasts sharply with its 2002-2003 probe that exposed as fabricated evidence cited by Washington as justification for invading Iraq. - Gareth Porter (Sep 15, '09)

Netanyahu plays a Russian rope trick
The top-secret dash that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took to Moscow on September 7 is believed to be the latest chapter in the maritime saga involving the "hijacked" Russian ship, the Arctic Sea. The gambit was done as a hedge, because in Tel Aviv these days, trust in the United States is rapidly eroding. - Sreeram Chaulia (Sep 14, '09)

Obama clings to hope as Iran hawks circle
Hundreds of activists from America's pro-Israel community descended on Washington last week to lobby for harsher sanctions on Iran, even as reports came out suggesting Tehran is on the verge of nuclear capability. President Barack Obama is under heavy pressure to act, and his end-of-September deadline for Iran to respond to his engagement offer is fast approaching. - Daniel Luban and Jim Lobe (Sep 14, '09)

Lebanon back to political limbo
After a 70-day struggle, Lebanon's prime minister-designate Saad Hariri has admitted defeat in his attempts to form a unity government and quit. This does not necessarily mean the end of Hariri, while the Hezbollah-led opposition could sniff an opportunity to further increase its demands. - Sami Moubayed(Sep 14, '09)

BOOK REVIEW
US hegemony slips into history
The Future of Global Relations by Terrence Edward Paupp.
The Barack Obama administration, dealing with the fallout of ongoing efforts to preserve Washington's unipolarity since the end of the Cold War, is facing unprecedented challenges. The author of this book traces the downward trajectory of US power and forecasts a very different future for the international community. - John Feffer (Sep 11, '09)

Iran steps up to the nuclear table
Tehran has presented the "Iran Six" nations with new proposals that Iran's foreign minister calls a "new opportunity for dialogue" with the West. Although the contents are still confidential, Iranian officials hint that for the first time security and economic cooperation will be discussed alongside the ongoing nuclear stalemate. Whether Washington takes this as an honorable detente or a delaying tactic will be key to upcoming talks. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 10, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
Fifty questions on 9/11
It's eight years since the fateful day that terror struck at the heart of the United States. The rebranded "global war on terror" still rages, with the epicenter now back where it began, in Afghanistan. After all these years, unanswered questions remain over both the events of September 11, and what followed; they're food for serious reflection. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 10, '09)

Blinded in the fog of war
Amid the endless cant and rhetoric that followed the United States-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the original purposes of the wars can be lost. The first casualty is said to be the truth; the second might well be remembering that wars should increase national security. - Brian M Downing (Sep 10, '09)

A life under fire for Ban Ki-moon
A leaked critique of United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon's first-term performance by a Norwegian ambassador has blasted him as "spineless and charmless". But the questionable veracity of this and other attacks by neo-liberals and the conservative press suggest Ban may have outgrown the do-nothing role originally scripted for him. - Ian Williams (Sep 9, '09)

Maliki hangs tough on Syria
As the Syria-Iraq crisis escalates, with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sticking to his story that Syrian-based Ba'athists were behind the August 19 Baghdad bombing, Iraqi discontent grows. Considering security was his only feather in a cap filled with economic woes, unemployment and refugees, Maliki needs a scapegoat fast if he's to have any chance in the next elections. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 9, '09)

Palestinian-Israeli trade looks up
Travel curbs, outbreaks of violence, hard politics and ancient enmities are severe obstacles in the way of business between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Yet two-way commerce is growing, and the outlook points to further gains as businessmen press on where politicians hold back. (Sep 9, '09)

Iraqi violence overshadowed
Violence in Iraq killed 456 Iraqis in August, the highest monthly death toll since July 2008. Despite this, neither in Iraq nor in the United States is there any significant movement calling for the US to delay or reverse its continuing pullout. In the US, much more attention is being paid to the deeply troubled engagement in Afghanistan. (Sep 8, '09)

Taliban's bombs came from US, not Iran
The roadside bombs killing and maiming Western soldiers in Afghanistan are not Iranian, as a top United States intelligence agency has claimed. The devices are crude but devastating re-adaptations of Italian anti-tank mines given to the anti-Soviet mujahideen in the 1980s by the US Central Intelligence Agency. - Gareth Porter (Sep 4, '09)

Arabic television lauds Jewish Egyptian diva
A dramatic series now showing on Arabic television covers a touchy subject - Egyptian Jews in the 1920s and 1930s, centered on the life of diva Layla Murad. Though controversial, works such as this shed much-needed light on important figures in Arabic history grossly maltreated for political reasons. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 4, '09)

US faces a tough choice on Iran
The "Iran Six" countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations are this month all wrestling with the problem of Iran's nuclear program. Amid widespread calls for "crippling" sanctions on Tehran, there is still room for negotiation, unless the pro-Israel lobby gets its way in Washington. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 3, '09)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Bush's third term? You're living it
Imagine if George W Bush had served a third term. He would have continued his policy of "extraordinary rendition", proposed the largest military budget in the history of the world, kept on Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and re-appointed Ben Bernanke to run the Fed. He might well have surged in Afghanistan. These, in fact, are the first-term acts of President Barack Obama. - David Swanson (Sep 2, '09)

Ahmadinejad battles for his cabinet
Iran's 290-member parliament is embroiled in a vociferous debate over President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's cabinet choices. Of the 21 nominees, 14 are new faces, including three women and a man wanted by Interpol for his role in a 1994 bombing. Ahmadinejad is struggling to win over the conservative bloc and his promise to bring a "new era" to Iran hangs in the balance. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 1, '09)

Olmert's peace plan totters with him
Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, indicted on a litany of corruption charges, could face a spell in jail, but he feels his ideas on peace with Palestine will prevail. However, given the minimal reaction to his confession that he offered to give away total control of the whole of Jerusalem, Olmert's ideas are likely just as irrelevant as he now is. (Sep 1, '09)

Storm over North Korea-Iran arms vessel
An Australian-owned vessel has been seized by the United Arab Emirates after North Korean conventional weapons, reportedly destined for Iran, were found in its cargo marked as "machine parts". The seizure, the result of tough new United Nation sanctions, could undermine Pyongyang's recent conciliatory gestures and a glowing report on Tehran's nuclear program. - Donald Kirk (Aug 31, '09)

Clinton has her own problems
As United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reacts to changing realities abroad, most recently in Japan, the Department of State itself warrants her close attention. In the process, she will have to wear many hats, including a few that may not fit too comfortably as she addresses problems involving staffing, security and strategic communications. - Peter J Brown (Aug 31, '09)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
GI Joe, post-American hero
After becoming persona non grata during the anti-war aftermath of Vietnam and sitting out an extended Cold War "furlough", GI Joe is back with a new movie and assorted products. The so-called "real American hero" may have no bigger fan club than the US Department of Defense, which has been advising Hollywood on how to make "advertainment" war movies such as this since the silent era. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 28, '09)

As US fades, Iran ups the ante in Iraq
If Washington, as many analysts believe, has decided to take advantage of Iran's internal unrest to push the government on the nuclear issue, there is a crucial point: any arena of confrontation between the countries won't be picked by the US alone. When push comes to shove, Iran will expand the confrontation to multiple fronts, and Iraq will be its first choice. - Shahir Shahidsaless (Aug 28, '09)

Iraq buys time for US troop pact
The United States military apologized and paid out US$54,500 in "condolence payments" over the killing of an Iraqi man and a woman during a raid on their house by US troops. The incident highlights the difficulties in implementing the Status of Forces Agreement that regulates the conduct of US forces in the country and goes some way to explain why Baghdad delayed a referendum on the pact. - Mohammed al-Zaidi (Aug 28, '09)

Obama steers the peace train
With little fanfare, the United States is tying together the knots of a comprehensive Middle East peace strategy that will bring Palestinians and Israelis back to the table. The onus is still on US President Barack Obama to prove that he is up to the task of translating US progress into practical dividends, but even at this early stage there is less cause for Palestinian pessimism - and Israeli confidence. (Aug 28, '09)

US sales to rescue of Palestine's kufiyeh
Changing fashions, economics and the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat have led to plummeting demand for the black and white checkered kufiyeh scarf that has been for many years a symbol of the Palestinian struggle. Now a sales drive in the United States may haul the last kufiyeh factory in the Occupied West Bank back from the brink of closure. - Sakhr Al-Makhadhi (Aug 27, '09)

THE ROVING EYE
The glitzy face of Eurabia
Qatar's Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani enjoys his French connection - and the feeling is mutual. The emir has big plans for his tiny emirate and its huge oil and gas reserves, while France's president enjoys cozying up with a key Persian Gulf actor. Expect Qatar to buy more Paris real estate, as more French arms and passenger jets go in the opposite direction. - Pepe Escobar
(Aug 27, '09)

Iraq burns its bridges with Syria
Baghdad on Tuesday abruptly recalled its ambassador to Damascus over the recent bombings in the Iraqi capital in which 100 people were killed. The move has angered the Syrians, who resent the implication that they had something to do with the attack. Syria is also bemused as to why Iraq would want to alienate the country that just a week ago it hailed as holding the key to Iraq's success. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 26, '09)

Leaked stories taint Iran nuclear debate
Western officials leaked stories to the press last week to pressure International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei into including allegations that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons in a report due out this week. The apparent aim is to discredit an earlier US National Intelligence Estimate ahead of tough negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. - Gareth Porter(Aug 26, '09)

A United States-Iran opportunity arises
United States special representative for AfPak, Richard Holbrooke, and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki posed for the cameras in Turkey on Tuesday while attending a meeting on Pakistan. The next step is for the two to engage over the country that is much more on their minds - Afghanistan. Tehran has a simple proposal: if the Barack Obama administration gives up its interference in Iran's domestic affairs, Iran will talk with the US on Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar (Aug 26, '09)

Iran softens its nuclear stance - for now
Ahead of a report on Iran's nuclear program and a United States deadline on sanctions, Tehran will allow inspectors into two important facilities, even though the mood in Iran's parliament is not in favor of compromise. The International Atomic Energy Agency has its work cut out keeping Iran on a conciliatory track. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 25, '09)

Shi'ites unite in a new power grab
An Iraqi coalition of 10 Shi’ite parties, backed by Iran and led by Ibrahim al-Jaafari, was launched on Monday to take on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who will soon announce a fresh alliance of his own. The forces now aligned against Maliki are formidable, but they lack the one crucial faction the premier is assiduously soliciting - the Sunnis. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 25, '09)

KEBABBLE
Turkey's beer-swillers get hammered
Anti-alcohol organizations in Turkey fear the country is sliding into a barley-filled vat of iniquity, with Turks now consuming 15.4 liters of beer per person each year. Sure, it's the highest level of consumption in the Middle East, but when compared to Ireland or Germany - it's just a drop in the keg. - Fazile Zahir (Aug 25, '09)|

Heated blame-game in shocked Iraq
Six attacks in Iraq last week caught the country off-guard. Iraqis are now blaming their elected representatives, who are blaming each other, while Iran's role in the bombings is also being questioned. The only good thing about this is how quickly and effectively parliament has dealt with the crisis - Sami Moubayed (Aug 24, '09)

Is Iran gas ban a step toward war?
Many in Washington view Iran's shortage of refined petroleum products - namely gasoline - as an opportunity to coerce Tehran into abandoning its nuclear-arms program. Still, cutting off gas could be especially risky because it would strengthen the hand of conservative clerics in Tehran and may entail a naval blockade, setting off a chain reaction of violent moves. - Michael Klare (Aug 21, '09)

Cracks appear in Mousavi's 'Green Path'
Rather than accept defeat in June's Iranian presidential election, never-say-die challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi has launched a grassroots "social movement" that he calls "The Green Path of Hope". The trouble is that the supporting structure of Mousavi's ideology - Iran's Islamic constitution - goes against his supporters' calls for a free and secular state. - Shahir Shahidsaless (Aug 21, '09)

Gun-loving Kurds all fired up
Politicians handed out guns to prominent supporters in the runup to elections in Iraqi Kurdistan last month - a "traditional gift" in the fiery region where carrying a piece is a badge of honor. Possible curbs on firearms have not gone down well where armed Kurds are viewed as not nearly as dangerous as suicide bombers. - Falah Najim (Aug 20, '09)

Hamas faces extremist opposition
Islamic resistance movement Hamas put down a fierce military challenge last week from a hardline group that blames the Hamas government for failing to establish Islamic law in Gaza and giving up jihad against Israel by enforcing a ceasefire. If such extremists ever come to power, Israel may regret not negotiating with Hamas. (Aug 19, '09)

Washington ponders its endgame
In its haste to lay plans for its departure from Iraq, the United States promised everyone everything. This leaves Washington with two choices. Leave a residual force of about 20,000 troops to guarantee Sunni and Kurdish interests, or allow the country to become a cockpit for competition among neighboring countries. (Aug 19, '09)

Maliki sees the light in Damascus
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, currently visiting Syria, has signed accords that will increase economic and cultural ties between the countries. Far more important is Maliki's realization that he needs the clout that Damascus has among all the players in Iraq if he is to resolve escalating problems relating to the oil-rich region of Kirkuk and the Sunni community. - Sami Moubayed
(Aug 19, '09)

Ahmadinejad unveils some gender savvy
When presidential challenger Mir Hossain Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavand, mobilized masses of Iranian women in the last election, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was taking notes. Now, Ahmadinejad has nominated three women for his cabinet, a landmark move that reformist critics claim has "stolen" their agenda and electorate. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 18, '09)

SPENGLER
Palestine problem hopeless,
but not serious
United Sates President Barack Obama has called the situation for Palestinians "intolerable". But compared to what? And why haven't they moved to other Arab countries if things are so bad? What the West needs to do is cut support to the Palestinians to lower their quality of life as an incentive for emigration. (Aug 17, '09)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
A slo-mo withdrawal from Iraq
Within any administration, someone once said, you can afford to be a hawk and be wrong, just not a dove and right. When it comes to the many retired American military commanders who've become TV war commentators, that seems to hold true. These ex-pros use slo-mo replays and cool graphics as they dance to the Pentagon's drum. In the end, the US still occupies Iraq, and no one even asks why. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 14, '09)

Tough sanctions won't tame Tehran
United States officials are talking tough and threatening even-stiffer sanctions should Tehran refuse to discuss its nuclear portfolio by the end of September. This ploy isn't going to work - the world would not be allowed to continue to move 40% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz if Iran were suffocating under a crippling embargo. Intensified sanctions are only a preamble to war. - Shahir Shahidsaless (Aug 13, '09)

Syria pulls some strings in Iran
France has praised Syria for helping secure the release this week of a French woman held in Iran on charges of encouraging opposition protests. Damascus clearly used its links to Iran's supreme leader, the only person who could have approved Nazak Afshar's freedom. United States President Barack Obama, when it comes to his problems with Iraq and Iran, is already tapping into these Syrian connections. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 13, '09)

Saudi Arabia wavers on Obama's plan
Washington's pro-Israel camp is calling on Arab leaders to make dramatic peace overtures to Israel, a request Saudi Arabia is quick to dismiss, saying the Israelis deserve no special rewards. Riyadh is in a good position to refuse as it is one of the most influential players in the Arab-Israeli peacemaking process and almost immune to American pressure. (Aug 12, '09)

Iran-Venezuela ties worry US
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and his Venezuelan counterpart President Hugo Chavez have been frequent visitors in each other's countries over the past 10 years, building strong economic and military ties. The burgeoning relationship of the two United States antagonists is potentially problematic for US interests. (Aug 11, '09)

Iran's parliament mounts a challenge
Hardline factions of Iran's parliament are capitalizing on President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's weakened political clout by pushing for a larger say in the make-up of his new cabinet. This and other internal ruptures leave Ahmadinejad with little choice but to focus on domestic rather than foreign issues. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 11, '09)

Shi'ite unity deal explodes US myth
Even though Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was ostensibly cooperating with the United States against rogue elements of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in 2007 and 2008, the Maliki regime was also cooperating secretly with the Sadrist forces. Maliki - with the encouragement of Iran - was also working for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, which he did not reveal to the Americans until 2008. - Gareth Porter (Aug 10, '09)

Hope's gone AWOL in Echo platoon
United States soldiers caught absent without leave are often consigned to Echo platoon - a special "holding" group at Fort Bragg, North Carolina - to await trial. Platoon members say it's a bleak state of legal limbo, with dire living conditions and verbal abuse. Traumatized by past combat, many refuse the fastest route out - redeployment. - Dahr Jamail and Sarah Lazare (Aug 10, '09)

SPENGLER
The closing of the Christian womb
Low birthrates and emigration endanger the dwindlng Arab Christian community. Arab Christians often blame Israel, although Israel indirectly was responsible for their political rise during the 1960s and 1970s. Christianity will flourish in the Middle East but it will speak Hebrew more than Arabic. (Aug 10, '09)

New nuke report debunks Iran hawks
The United States' latest estimate of when Iran will be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon is the year 2013, years later than alarmist reports would have it. This news, in tandem with political uncertainty in Iran, has heightened calls for Washington to go easier on Tehran. (Aug 10, '09)

Hikers lost in stasis of US-Iran relations
Mahmud Ahmadinejad's presidency is now firmly established; Mir Hossein Mousavi's opposition movement has failed to produce hard evidence of electoral fraud and even Britain has broken ranks to accept the victory. Yet, Washington still refuses to follow suit. The snub could have a dire impact on the many pressing regional issues - not to mention three American hikers now detained in Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 7, '09)

The West has its own suicide bombers
From the Bay of Tripoli in 1804 - where American seamen introduced the use of the suicide bomber in a battle against Muslims - to Will Smith in the futuristic vampire movie I Am Legend, Westerners in reality and in popular culture have acted as suicide bombers. The West has its suicide bombers - they're called heroes. The culture of indoctrination is called it basic training. When Westerners kill civilians, it's called collateral damage. - John Feffer (Aug 7, '09)

SPEAKING FREELY
Jundullah a wedge between Iran, Pakistan
Jundullah - a Sunni fundamentalist group with ethnic separatist goals - has impaired relations between Iran and Pakistan. Unless the United States and Pakistan crack down on this terrorist outfit, it may succeed in bringing Tehran and Islamabad to the brink of war, and in energizing the Taliban. - Raja Karthikeya (Aug 6, '09)

Kurds turn up the heat on Baghdad
It took Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki three years before making his first journey from Baghdad to the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. He might wish he had stayed in the capital. The Kurds, with a freshly re-elected president, made it clear they want to go all the way in their claim for the oil-rich Kirkuk region, leaving Maliki with the choice of confrontation, or ceding the controversial territory. - Sami Moubayed(Aug 6, '09)

Turkey hems in its Islamist fringe
The government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is rounding up suspected militants and radicals in a bid to differentiate its brand of moderate Islam from the angry rhetoric of Turkey's Islamist fringe. Ankara is worried about growing support for groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir, Hezbollah and the ever-present threat of al-Qaeda. - Patrick Wrigley (Aug 6, '09)

Iran caught in a 10-year cycle
Protests against the re-election of Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad have revealed a divided leadership and brought into question the legitimacy of not only the Ahmadinejad government, but for the first time, the role of the supreme leader and the system itself. Iran's hardline leaders may now be moving the country towards an absolute theocracy in a bid to secure their power. - Grace Nasri (Aug 6, '09)

U-turn puts Hezbollah in the driving seat
The opportunistic head of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, has again switched sides, this time turning his back on the United States-backed March 14 Coalition to support the Syrian-backed, Hezbollah-led opposition. A full party defection would hand Hezbollah a majority in parliament, casting serious doubt on Saad Hariri's future as premier. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 5, '09)

Ahmadinejad faces his toughest test
With little time to waste, the second administration of Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad must develop a deft nuclear policy, even as domestic instability continues to erode its mandate. The national consensus behind the firebrand president who spoke with authority for the past four years has vanished. In its place is a new, divisive political climate poorly suited for bold and effective foreign policy. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 4, '09)

Iran's Guards turn on Ahmadinejad
The political impasse between Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad ended Monday as Khamenei officially endorsed Ahmadinejad's second term. Behind the scenes, it was unpopular cabinet picks and the influence of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps that cost Ahmadinejad the contest. After all, he's the only player with a political expiration date. - Shahir Shahidsaless (Aug 3, '09)

Ten steps to liquidate US bases
If Washington continues to operate in the role of a global hegemon, with its military inventory of 865 facilities in more than 40 countries and overseas US territories, it could well follow in the former Soviet Union's footsteps and become a crippled economic power. - Chalmers Johnson (Aug 3, '09)