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After Iraq, the moral abyss still gapes
The only courtroom facing US politicians, policy makers, and bureaucrats who justified the Iraqi invasion with lies is the court of public opinion, and most will receive light sentences. This leaves a generation of American children with the message that manipulating the truth is acceptable, while raising the chances that, like past empires, US dominance will fall due to moral decay from within. - Adil E Shamoo
(Apr 5, '13)
Iran's nuclear father gives US a clue
Dr Akbar Etemad, who was in charge of Iran's fledgling nuclear program between 1974 and 1978, has shed light on what is likely to be the Islamic Republic's fundamental motive in seeking the "threshold" capability previously sought by the Shah - defense, devoid of aggression. The US has other means than punishing Iran to discourage the spread of dual-use technologies. - Peter Jenkins
(Apr 5, '13)
Now for a vacation in Gaza, maybe
A cheery rendition of Gaza City's highlights is part of a tourist map in English devised by geographers to create a sense of normality in the occupied territory. While its creators recognize a flourishing tourism industry to be a distant dream, the map aims to show the people of Gaza are hospitable and welcoming. - Eva Bartlett
(Apr 4, '13)
How Turkey's regional ambitions crumbled
Pre-Arab Spring Turkey seemed to have found a magical non-confrontational formula to resolve historic regional tensions, with the ruling Justice and Development Party proclaiming its re-election victory in 2011 as a win for countries stretching from the Balkans to North Africa and Central Asia. The euphoria died when the flames of Syria's sectarian violence licked Turkey's borders, forcing it back towards Israel. - Ramzy Baroud
(Apr 4, '13)
Coalition frays on eve of Iran nuclear talks
China and Russia are increasingly at odds with their other P5+1 partners (the US, Britain, France, plus Germany) on the eve of talks with Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, according to Javier Solana. The European Union's former top foreign policy official says fears of a spike in energy prices due to additional Western sanctions are driving the rift. - Jim Lobe
(Apr 2, '13)
The Syrianization of Syria rolls on
Syria is overtaking any other part of the world as the paradigm of complete fragmentation of a geographic and political entity. In the race to disintegration of the regime or the main rebel groups opposing it, the fissures may overtake the sweeping (and some say inaccurate) concept of Balkanization as shorthand for failed state. - Victor Kotsev
(Mar 28, '13)
The US's other dark legacy in Iraq
Often overlooked in post-mortems of the US occupation of Iraq is the spectacularly poor job the US did in governing the conquered state. From simple water and sewage to the provision and other basic utilities, Washington's knack at fostering corrupt practices has resulted in a failing state apparatus as much doomed by its inefficient foundations as today's woeful security situation.
- Joy Gordon
(Mar 28, '13)
Iranian people caught in crossfire of duel
Dueling messages between United States President Barack Obama and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei make it clear that the Iranian people are caught in the rhetorical crossfire, as subjects to be wooed and courted but whose economic welfare is not of much concern. - Farideh Farhi
(Mar 28, '13)
Blunt sanctions fail to deter Iran
A new report based on interviews with senior Iranian political officials, analysts and businesses, shows that sanctions are failing in their stated aim of changing the course of Tehran's nuclear program. Amid the undercurrent of economic curbs as a means for effecting regime change, the blunt tool of sanctions must be sharpened by better diplomacy. - Jasmin Ramsey
(Mar 27, '13)
Iraq, 10 years later
Appreciation of Iraqi suffering was as absent from US coverage of last week's 10th anniversary of the invasion as at the time, with few Americans dwelling on the lives destroyed then or on the corrupt, failing state created today. As the two potential pillars of the US legacy - dismantling a dictatorship and delivering security - rapidly crumble, all that's left is chaos and death. - Dahr Jamail
(Mar 27, '13)
US resets Middle East compass
The Barack Obama-mediated phone call between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week was historic in being a formal apology for an Israeli sin, even as it was also crude PR. More importantly, Turkish-Israeli reconciliation impacts the overall strategic balance in the Middle East and has profound implications for the Iran question. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 25, '13)
SPENGLER
Obama converts
to neo-realism
With an Israeli-Palestinian agreement as unlikely as at any time in the past two decades, President Obama went to Israel for one simple reason - where else in the Middle East could he go? With the Passover holiday imminent, it was also a useful place to declare his own personal Exodus from idealism (as in Cairo 2009) to neo-realism and recognition of who is the US's only Mid-East ally.
(Mar 25, '13)
Palestine left with despair
Barack Obama's arrival in Israel last week was accompanied by the quick shattering of illusions. As he was showered with accolades and warm embraces of top Israeli officials, a new reality began to sink in: the American leader was no different than his predecessors. He never had been. Which left the Palestinians (including families of arrested school children) wondering - must we have four more years of this? - Ramzy Baroud
(Mar 25, '13)
Qatari spoiler role in Syria draws Iranian ire
The resignation of Syrian opposition leader Ahmed Moaz al-Khatibi, citing Qatar's attempts to exert control over the movement, damages the prospects of peace talks with Damascus favored by both Iran and the UN. Qatar is showing its complicity in US designs on Syria, and that threatens to strain crucial diplomatic, economic, and energy ties with Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 25, '13)
Obama stirs the Middle East cauldron
President Barack Obama's visit to Israel, Palestine and Jordan is intended to stir a cauldron red-hot with intrigue and tensions. Urgent issues include the Iranian nuclear crisis, the Syrian civil war, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Egypt is also in turmoil, and facing financial collapse. The entire region is in a state of chaos. An Israeli attack on Iran is the last thing the United States wants right now.
- Victor Kotsev
(Mar 22, '13)
Ocalan signals Kurdish road to peace
An offer by Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), to withdrew fighters based beyond Turkey's borders places the insurgency on a peace footing, yet fell short of the expected call for a ceasefire. Supplying rhetoric and authority is about all Ocalan can do from his prison cell, but he has spoken and the PKK will likely comply. - Caleb Lauer
(Mar 22, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
Real liars go to Tehran
It was a Back to Future moment, 10 years after the invasion of Iraq on trumped up WMD charges, as Bibi stressed Iran's (non-existent) nuclear weapons posed an existential threat to Israel and Barack Obama was adamant that Bibi was entitled to do anything to defend Israel. Willful ignorance of the facts made their meeting less reality, more trashy reality show. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 21, '13)
US maintains pressure on Iran
The United States' tough negotiation strategy in Istanbul shows that Washington is intent on keeping the pressure on Iran at any cost, above all, by deleting the option of serious sanctions' offer as a part of a quid pro quo with Tehran. Some options after all have a tendency to bump off others below the table. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 21, '13)
Palestinians prepare
bitter welcome for Obama
Many Palestinians seem hostile to the visit to President Barack Obama's visit to the West Bank, with posters of Obama torched and vandalized and shoes thrown at a US diplomatic vehicle during an anti-Obama demonstration. Apparent US blindness to Israel's creeping settlements agenda, backed by personal involvement by government ministers, is a key factor. - Mel Frykberg
(Mar 21, '13)
Legacy of courage rises in Rafah
At somber ceremonies marking the 10th anniversary of the killing of Rachel Corrie by an Israeli bulldozer, young Palestinians remembered the US activist for her attempt to protect their homes. Although an Israeli court rejected a wrongful death suit brought by Corrie’s family last year, her legacy of bravery will easily outlive the verdict. - Ramzy Baroud
(Mar 21, '13)
THE INVASION OF IRAQ: 10 YEARS ON
Search and Destroy: The rape of Iraq
Despite the harrowing spiral of Iraqi suffering and drift towards balkanization and civil war, 10 years on and even so-called "liberals" are trying to legitimize something, anything, out of the "Iraq project". As the country sits on the brink of fragmentation, resource-rich Kurdish regions turning to Turkey to bypass Baghdad for oil exports and influence could become the last straw. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 20, '13)
Neo-cons shocked by loss of awe
Divides in the Republican Party between defense hawks and those who believe the Pentagon shouldn't be exempt from budget cuts underline growing resistance to the neo-conservative vision of a benevolent US hegemony as favored by the group who sought "regime change" in Iraq a decade ago. That debacle isn't the sole source of the split. - Jim Lobe
(Mar 20, '13)
World fails to make a reckoning
Bombings in Baghdad appeared to commemorate the invasion of Iraq. Elsewhere, particularly among Washington's foreign policy elite, the remarkable lack of interest in the anniversary may be explained by the fact that the war was an experience many, including its defenders, would prefer to forget. After all, the balance sheet doesn't look very good. - Jim Lobe
(Mar 20, '13)
IRANIAN FIRE POWER
A guerilla force in Gulf waters
Large surface ships and submarines form the backbone of the Iran's conventional "green water" navy in the Persian Gulf. The Revolutionary Guards have a large inventory of small craft specializing in hit-and-run tactics that in any conflict would be able to take advantage of adversaries' weaknesses. - Michael Connell (Mar 20, '13)
Part 1: Diverse missile inventory is indecisive
Low expectations color Obama's Israel trip
With President Barack Obama set to travel on his first trip to Israel as president, expectations for a breakthrough on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process are low to nonexistent. The priority will be to make sure that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gets the message: "We are committed to the security of Israel, but we're not interested in having a war with Iran to prove it.''
- Mitchell Plitnick
(Mar 19, '13)
IRANIAN FIRE POWER
Diverse missile inventory is indecisive
Iran's stock of long-range artillery rockets and ballistic missiles, the largest and most diverse such inventory in the Middle East, is not accurate enough to be decisive militarily. The Islamic Republic's air force and ground-based air defense systems offer limited protection of its air space and are no match for the combined capacity of the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf. - Michael Elleman
(Mar 19, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
Crisis? What crisis?
Let's hit Syria
Members of the European Council just got together to tie themselves up, autocratically, in the red-tape that passes for democracy and screams "no exit" in the crisis-hit region. Luckily, the men in tights, David Cameron and Francois Hollande, were on hand to raise pulses with an Anglo-French offensive to weaponize Syrian "rebels". As with all matters EU, if it can get more pathetic, it will.
- Pepe Escobar
(Mar 18, '13)
Obama's dangerous Iran nuclear gambit
US President Barack Obama's categorical allegation that Iran is "over a year or so" from developing nuclear weapons has thrown a grenade at progress in nuclear negotiations and flies in the face of assertions from his own advisers. His comments were clearly aimed at good PR for Israel on the eve of his official visit there, but Obama may yet see the imposition of a fake timetable as a blunder. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 18, '13)
SPENGLER
Speaking truth to impotence
in the Middle East
President Barack Obama's advisers who anguish over blood spilt in Syria's civil war have good cause: they helped the US (with European assistance) set going a regional Sunni-Shi'ite war, with minorities involved in a fight to the death. The do-gooders may not want to see the consequences of their mistakes, while the response from Republican hawks is to switch off the world news for a generation.
(Mar 18, '13)
US takes wrong turn on Iran
Divining the Obama administration's foreign policy intentions can be challenging at times - mark US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice's words, spoken last week as though nothing has changed over Iran's nuclear program even as recent talks produced positive developments. The US has a plan, but it is perplexing and a strange way to build trust. - Peter Jenkins
(Mar 15, '13)
COMMENT
Europe makes odd policy in Palestine
The European Union has gained a reputation for a more balanced stand than the US on Israel's treatment of Palestinians, as evinced in recent condemnation of the illegal occupation of their land. Yet as much as the EU takes from Israel by professing abhorrence of institutionalized Apartheid, it gives back more by funding the same settlement programs it denounces.
- Ramzy Baroud
(Mar 15, '13)
Erdogan's rhetoric is Kerry's headache
Rising tensions between Turkey and the United States are a headache for Secretary of State John Kerry. Yet the strain lies not in any actions, but rather in rhetoric as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan shows he is willing to put old alliances at risk for the sake of scoring points with a domestic audience. - Egemen B Bezci and Geoffrey Levin
(Mar 13, '13)
Pakistan tests US will with Iran pipeline
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari this week joined hands with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to mark the start of the final phase of a pipeline planned to carry Iranian natural gas into the energy-starved Pakistani economy. If built, it would be diplomatic and economic blow to US sanctions against Tehran, while showing India the benefits of energy independence from Washington. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 13, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
The strategy in Syria has failed
Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be urged to end their destabilization of Syria and find a non-violent political solution that ensures Sunni Islamic fundamentalists do not come to power. Syria is undeniably authoritarian, but its many sects are protected much better under the Arab nationalist al-Assad government than the Western-supported Free Syrian Army. - Sean Fenley
(Mar 8, '13)
Smart steps in Iran nuclear negotiations
Forget ambitious strategies, a grand bargain and comprehensive negotiations when a new round of multilateral talks on the Iran nuclear standoff gets under way in Kazakhstan. Small baby steps that keep the dialogue from collapsing are the smart moves that are in everybody's interest to encourage, even as the hawks in Washington find that hard. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 25, '13)
Risky equilibrium in Iran nuclear crisis
The equally strong momentum behind United States' efforts to tighten sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and Tehran's determination to defy them is leading the ongoing stalemate toward a dangerous phase. Unless Western policy makers realize that more punitive measures simply harden Tehran's resolve, any chance of a nuclear bargain could be lost.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 15, '13)
SPENGLER
Eygpt, Syria - it's just
the end of them
All Syria has to show after two years of civil war is 60,000 causalities, while
more rationing of bread in Egypt is proof of inevitable financial exhaustion.
Libya has dropped off the precipice, while Islam's poster-child Tunisia faces
renewed upheaval. As grim as that sounds if you live there, the global
consequences of the failure of Arab states are negligible.
(Feb 13, '13)
Golan Heights braces for more
fighting
Residents of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights say they are preparing for a
war situation as Israel increasingly threatens to become involved militarily in
the Syrian conflict. Israel is tightening security on its northern border with
Syria and Lebanon less than a week after its jets were suspected to have bombed
a Syrian weapons convoy. - Jillian Kestler-D'Amours
(Feb 8, '13)
Khamenei plays hardball with Obama
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei closed an extraordinary week in Middle East
politics with hard words to reject the possibility of direct talks with the
United States. The Iranian leader simply threw the ball into US President
Barack Obama's court, attached with a message to get serious instead of lobbing
vague offers without strings or commitments. Khamenei will now wait and see how
Obama kicks it around when he visits Israel next month. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 8, '13)
Few hopes for Iran breakthrough
Hopes of a breakthrough over Iran's nuclear program have been scotched after
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to reject a US proposal to hold
direct bilateral negotiations. After an agreement to resume long-delayed UN
talks it looks likely that serious discussions will not take place until
Iranians vote in a new president in June. - Jim Lobe
(Feb 8, '13)
BOOK REVIEW
Judaism's ancient voice of reason
The Philosophy of Hebrew Scripture by Yoram Hazony
The Hebrew Bible has long been misinterpreted within the Christian
framework of revelation, though Christian concepts such miracles and eternal
life are conspicuously absent from core tenets of Judaism. This book sets out
to remind readers that like the works of great Greek philosophers, ancient
Hebrew scriptures are entirely products of universal reason. - Friedrich Hansen
(Feb 8, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
Israel fuels Syrian fire, risks
contagion
Israel's air raid on Syria used the cover of chemical weapons concerns to
disguise an attempt at military escalation aimed at either embroiling an
unwilling United States in the Syrian conflict or gaining a larger say in
negotiations to shape a future regime in Syria. Military intervention only
promises more destruction for Syria, while Israel's buffer zone may create
space for al-Qaeda-linked rebels to thrive. - Nicola Nasser
(Feb 7, '13)
New regime, same brutality in Egypt
Video footage of Hamada Saber, an Egyptian protester, being dragged naked
across a Cairo street and beaten by riot police has sparked outrage and
intensified calls for police reform, a key demand of the 2011 revolution that
toppled dictator Hosni Mubarak. With no change in a security culture that
condoned torture, President Mohamed Morsi is accused of relying on the same
brutality as his predecessors to crush dissent. - Cam McGrath
(Feb 7, '13)
Corruption case raises
Iran domestic tensions
Iran's president has accused the brother of the speaker of parliament of
corruption, increasing tensions between two of the country's most powerful
political figures in the run-up to presidential elections in the country.
(Feb 6, '13)
Bulgaria appeases US, Israel on bus
probe
Bulgaria, long before the completion of its own investigation, has blamed
Hezbollah for the bus blast last year that killed five Israeli tourists and
their driver. While the news will go down well in Washington and Israel, keen
for the world to label Hezbollah a terrorist organization, evidence the attack
was a Mossad-orchestrated "false flag" suggests the Bulgarian government has
made mockery of its independence. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 6, '13)
New actors in Palestinian peace
charade
An Israeli "goodwill gesture" to release US$100 million of withheld taxes to
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' administration could prove a
curtain-raiser for a "reset" of the peace process. Apparent political shifts in
Jerusalem and Washington aside, there is little will among elites on all sides
to threaten what for them is a cushy status quo. - Ramzy Baroud
(Feb 5, '13)
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY
Munich conference breaks Iran-US
ice
Vice-President Joseph Biden's indication in Munich that the United States was
ready to engage in serious dialogue with Tehran was welcomed by Iranian Foreign
Minister Ali Akba Salehi, with a caveat that Biden's warning that the "window
for diplomacy is not open forever" was less well received. The Barack Obama
administration is facing a litmus test on its foreign policy, and needs to be
clearer about its objectives. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 4, '13)
Washington's dilemma on a 'lost' planet
US policy since reaching the apex of global power following World War II is
premised on the US owning the world and fighting anything that weakens its
control. Like China in the 1940s, countries that move towards independence are
considered "lost". That hegemonic outlook makes supposed US yearnings for
democracy and stability appear as the ranting of a commissar. - Noam Chomsky
(Feb 4, '13)
Gas diplomacy time
The meeting of Iran with negotiators from the United Nations Security Council
permanent members plus Germany in Kazakhstan on February 25 may come up with
something that could transcend the political impasse involving Tehran - energy
co-operation involving Caspian states and related investors. - Chris Cook
(Feb 4, '13)
Reformists split on Iran vote
Reformists in Iran appear split on the strategy they should take in the run up
to presidential elections in June, their attitudes colored on one hand by
increased solidarity against United States-led economic sanctions, and by the
severe restrictions on dissent still in place after the 2009 post-election
protests. As some insist on a boycott, others point to past victories that
shocked the conservative establishment. - Yasaman Baji
(Feb 1, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
India-Israel anti-terror axis
evolves
Secretive counter-terrorism and defense ties between India and Israel have
burgeoned since the United States-led "war on terror" helped create an
"informal" axis in 2003. By conflating its Kashmir and Pakistan struggles with
what the Indian foreign ministry calls Israel's "cross-border terrorism
problem" - the Palestinian resistance - New Delhi gains access to high-tech
weaponry, surveillance equipment and sophisticated training. - Ninan Koshy
(Feb 1, '13)
Israel jet attack just a prelude
Sparse details of an attack by Israel jets on a target near the Lebanon-Syria
border are sufficient to indicate a ratcheting up of tensions in the Levant.
Whether the target was a convoy carrying anti-aircraft missiles or a Syrian
"military research center" and chemicals store, and whether Iran and/or
Hezbollah figured in the raid, more of the same can be expected. - Victor Kotsev
(Jan 31, '13)
Theater of the absurd in Turkey's
courts
The slick security and elegant architecture in Istanbul's Palace of Justice
belies the dysfunctional, Kafkaesque proceedings faced there by journalists and
activists on issues ranging from Kurdish concerns to gay rights. With pre-trial
detentions that go on for years, labyrinthine complexities and convictions that
defy logic, it's hard to avoid the view that the present Ankara government
suffers the same repressive paranoia shown by earlier military rulers. - Caleb
Lauer (Jan 31, '13)
Egypt faces 'Mubarak-like' Morsi
The blame-game has started in Egypt after plans for "peaceful rallies" to mark
the second anniversary of the revolution were marred by violent clashes that
have left at least 40 people dead and a state of emergency. The ruling Muslim
Brotherhood points the finger at its political adversaries, while the
opposition accuses President Mohammed Morsi of behaving with the aloofness of
deposed dictator Hosni Mubarak. - Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani
(Jan 30, '13)
Egypt's (missed) chance in nuclear
diplomacy
Egypt's apparent unwillingness to hold the next round of multilateral
negotiations on Iran's nuclear program may mean a missed opportunity for
President Mohammed Morsi to demonstrate his government's ability to play an
independent role in international affairs - even if he has to overcome strong
resistance by the European powers. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jan 29, '13)
Security firms eye 'terror' bonanza
The hostage crisis at Algeria's In Amenas gas plant revives perceptions of
al-Qaeda as well-prepared militants, while French intervention in the Malian
conflict that spawned the attack raises the prospect of a post-war power
vacuum. The time of Blackwater-style armed contractors may be over, but Libya's
experience underlines that Western security groups are poised to cash in. - Ramzy
Baroud (Jan 29, '13)
THE
ROVING EYE
Zero Dark Mali
Zero Dark pulp fiction starts now. With al-Qaeda, that most convenient of
bogeymen, once again back in fashion, it's Goooooooooood morning, Mali! Or,
with Washington leading the desert charge from behind as the French pursue the
mirage of control through a succession of sandy Dien Bien Phus, perhaps that
should be Bonjooooour, Mali! - Pepe Escobar (Jan
25, '13)
The dreams and dilemmas of Iraqi
Kurdistan
Iraq and Syria are on the verge of dismemberment as the two nations' sectarian
strife threatens national identities. The clear victors of these two conflicts
so far are the Kurds. In their northern Iraq's semi-autonomous state, Kurds led
by President Massoud Barzani must navigate the geopolitical fault lines with
care. - Giorgio Cafiero (Jan 25, '13)
Sanctions herald new big-stick
diplomacy
Sweeping new sanctions introduced this month by US President Barack Obama over
Iran's disputed nuclear program move closer to imposing a global trade embargo.
Washington's use of a complex sanctions system to force US and other countries'
companies to stop all business with Iran, is a departure from the softly,
softly foreign policy approach that such curbs traditionally represent. - Erich
C Ferrari and Samuel Cutler (Jan 24,
'13)
US think tank fuels Iran nuclear
crisis
A United States think tank's endorsement of the military option against Iran
and its recommendation of tougher sanctions carry echoes of an earlier US
Congressional report that stirred misplaced concern over uranium enrichment.
Close scrutiny of the think tank's report reveals several problems that
undermine its value and reveal a political bias that begs the question of
whether it, too, is raising a false alarm. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jan 24, '13)
Victory close to defeat for
Netanyahu
In the build up to Tuesday's elections in Israel, opinion polls made voters
believe what incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took for granted -
that his re-election was a sure thing. Instead, a strong showing for the
center-left opposition has highlighted the folly of mounting a dull and dormant
campaign. - Pierre Klochendler (Jan 24, '13)
Pakistan off limits for US drone
rules
Senior Obama administration officials are reportedly reaching compromises over
the terms of a so-called "playbook" on the use of drones against suspected
terrorists. That the rules won't immediately apply to the Central Intelligence
Agency's Afghanistan-based program against targets in Pakistan, where most
drone strikes have occurred, is stirring growing controversy. - Jim Lobe
(Jan 23, '13)
'Arab Spring' reductionism hits
North Africa
Efforts to paint last week's hostage crisis at an Algerian gas plant as
evidence North Africa will be a "geopolitical hotspot" for 2013 remind of how
the "Arab Spring" narrative was stretched to suit preconceived designs of
Western powers. Although a collection of unique revolutions, foreign
interventions, sectarian tension and civil wars, this didn't prevent sinister
generalizations forming. - Ramzy Baroud (Jan
23, '13)
SPENGLER
Denial still is a river in
Egypt
More concerning than the inherent sentiment in Egyptian President Mohammed
Morsi 2010 comments denouncing Jews as "descendants of apes and pigs" is that
such Dark Age-style ignorance afflicts a leader charged with rescuing one of
the most troubled economies in recent global history. Yet neither fact stops
well-wishers from the Western foreign policy establishment pouring money
into the evolving Egyptian crisis. (Jan 22, '13)
Iran narrows gaps between two
talks
Iran is holding up progress in talks with the International Atomic Energy
Agency while maintaining the threat it could pull out from negotiations with
the nuclear watchdog. The game of nuclear poker aims to spur the UN Security
Council's Permanent Five into another round of broader bilateral talks - and to
provoke the West into offering a weighty concession package. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jan 22, '13)
COMMENT
Time for a reckoning on Iran
sanctions
The furor over defense secretary candidate Chuck Hagel's views on Iran
distracts from the more pressing need for a full-scale review of the US's
flagging policy towards Tehran, particularly a sanctions regime that has
depleted lingering goodwill towards the United States among ordinary Iranians
while failing to create the right conditions for a nuclear deal. - Hilary
Matfess (Jan 18, '13)
Getting riyal
The Iranian economy is shuddering to a halt, thanks in large part to the impact
of sanctions. The country's crippling exclusion from the US dollar payment
system is a well-disguised blessing, as it opens the way to adoption by Tehran
of a superior and sustainable currency system. - Chris Cook
(Jan 18, '13)
Turkey's hubris rolls back
Kurds
Turkey's reluctance to prosecute anyone for mistakenly killing 34 Kurdish men
and boys in an aerial bombing in 2011 suggests a widespread culture of impunity
applies particularly in the treatment of its Kurdish citizens. Ankara's loosely
worded anti-terror statutes give authorities a free rein to hold suspects, but
oppressive laws are also creating a generation of radical Kurds. - Jillian
Kestler-D'Amours (Jan 17, '13)
Iran tries charm-offensive in
Cairo
Iranian efforts to form a diplomatic partnership with post-revolutionary Egypt
to boost Tehran's regional influence and ease its international isolation have
foundered as a confident Cairo plays a dual game in the Syrian crisis. While
President Mohammed Morsi has resisted the overtures of an emerging
Turkey-Qatar-Saudi Sunni axis bent on supplanting Bashar al-Assad, his Muslim
Brotherhood will not support Iran's proposed political solution. - Richard Javad
Heydarian (Jan 17, '13)
Iran's survival strategy
Iranian officials have long acknowledged the impact of sanctions on Iran's
economy, conceding they were partly to blame for the recent currency
depreciation and its rampant inflation. Whether the sanctions will meet their
ostensible political goal of changing Iran's nuclear posture is a different
story. - Abolghasem Bayyenat (Jan 16, '13)
New push for tougher Iran
sanctions
Possibly just days prior to a summit with Iran over its nuclear policy, a
report is urging the United States to take tougher measures and issue more
explicit military threats while demanding Tehran make a swathe of concessions.
The report hews closely to Israeli views, and may disrupt negotiators' unity
while persuading Iran that the US is seeking regime change. - Jim Lobe
(Jan 16, '13)
Prisoners' Intifada shames
leaders
Commitment to the Palestine cause seen in prisoners' hunger strikes makes a
mockery of the "unity" efforts of a leadership beset by factionalism and
seemingly subservient to demands of the international community. As the
interests of the Palestinian elite increasingly overlap with those of Israeli
authorities, the distance between them and the people is growing too far to
bridge. - Ramzy Baroud (Jan 15, '13)
Netanyahu suffers from being
too popular
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the electorate this month with his
still-high popularity ensuring that he will continue to rule. Yet his voting
base is being undermined by his decision to unify his right-wing Likud party
list with Avigdor Lieberman's more right-wing Israel Beitenu party. In
politics, "united we stand" doesn't necessarily translate into a strong showing
at the polling station. - Pierre Klochendler (Jan
14, '13)
Obama duo offers new hope on
Iran
President Barack Obama's proposed pairing of Chuck Hagel as defense secretary
and John Kerry as secretary of state could create a dynamic that revitalizes
his failed "Iran engagement" policy, with both candidates having shown a
readiness to de-escalate the nuclear crisis. The largest obstacle is Israel,
which will use every ounce of its US influence to prevent any deal. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Jan 10, '13)
THE
ROVING EYE
Syria: A jihadi paradise
Syria has turned into a remix of 1980s Afghanistan as Sunni hardcore faithful
rush to crush President Bashar al-Assad on al-Qaeda's call. This is hardly what
the petromonarchs and gilded Western powers backing the Syrian opposition have
in mind. What they want is a military dictatorship without the military
dictator; what they've put up is a jihadi paradise with Assad not moving
anytime soon. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 10, '13)
Hagel can reveal the 'real'
Obama
Barack Obama entered the White House on grand, and vague, talk of "hope". His
choice of Chuck Hagel as defense secretary (and John Kerry as secretary of
state) suggests that freed from the exigencies of re-election, President Obama
now feels largely free to follow his moral instincts in foreign policy with
fewer inhibitions - and perhaps secure his legacy as the helmsman at this
defining moment in his country's future. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jan 9, '13)
'So many people died'
For all the ink spilt in tortured comparisons about whether Afghanistan is
"Obama's Vietnam", and likewise Iraq as a repeat of the American debacle in
Southeast Asia, there is one way the analogy really does apply: misery for
local nationals. Civilian suffering of the kind experienced by Vietnamese who
had to bury the bodies of relatives, is the defining characteristic of modern
war, even if only rarely whispered in the halls of power. - Nick Turse
(Jan 9, '13)
Syria goes from periphery to
core
For years a calm eye in the storm of Middle Eastern conflict, Syria is now a
center of regional instability with violence and upheaval that rivals the
suffering of its war-scarred neighbors. In the face of a deeply divided
international community, the rebels and regime both believe they will prevail.
However, Turkey, the Kurds and Hezbollah still hold potentially decisive cards.
- Derek Henry Flood (Jan 8, '13)
Indian medicines for Iran's
patients
Western sanctions and Tehran's priorities in dispensing cash have left a dearth
of medicines in Iran's health services. That is creating an opportunity for
India's pharmaceutical industry, if New Delhi can balance commercial challenges
with its desire to please Washington. - Vijay Prashad
(Jan 8, '13)
Palestinians must find 'true' voice
The Palestinian people, for all their suffering, struggle to be heard, in stark
contrast to the dominant Israeli story, which retains cohesion and a sense of
authenticity whatever the context. Ordinary Palestinians must voice - and the
West must hear and transmit - stories that reflect their history, reality and
aspirations, and so challenge the polarization that besets their present.
(Jan 7, '13)
SPENGLER
The siege of Baghdad
and China's rise
The failure of the last Abbasid Caliph to prepare Baghdad for an onslaught of
Chinese innovation led to his gruesome death at the hands of Mongol invaders in
the siege of 1258. Like Baghdad then, Americans have no idea what is about to
hit them as China's deep pockets source whatever technology is required. By any
means other than a resurgence of US innovation, resistance is futile.
(Jan 7, '13)
Hagel sets early challenge for
Israel lobby
Former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel's likely nomination as US defense
secretary creates a dilemma for the Israel lobby. Opposition would risk ties
with President Barack Obama and failure threaten its "invincible" aura in
Washington's corridors of power. Acquiesce, and it would have to deal with a
fiercely independent politician with a sometimes critical stance of Israel. - Jim
Lobe (Jan 7, '13)
A race to the bottom in Syria
Many observers insist that the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is on
its last legs. While his weakness is no illusion, the opposition is broke and
in tatters, having failed to break the unity of minorities supporting Assad and
to rally Sunnis against him. As winter sets in, it's a race to the bottom in
which victory hinges on endurance rather than strength. - Victor Kotsev
(Jan 4, '13)
Iranians in Latin America spook US
The United States has taken aim at Iran's efforts to build relations with Latin
American countries, with a new US bill signed into law in December accusing
Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies of raising funds there through drug and
arms trafficking and of providing safe haven to transiting terrorists. Such
moves suggest Israeli demands are encroaching ever- deeper into core US policy.
- Ramzy Baroud (Jan 4, '13)
Blind
visions tell more
about now than
the future
The National Intelligence Council has peered deep into the future with the
release of Global Trends 2030, a bloated, blind, deaf, and dumb vision
of the world, including China, nearly two decades hence. In doing so, it paints
a revealing portrait of the fears and limitations of an airless Washington at
the start of 2013. - Tom Engelhardt (Jan 4,
'13)
Middle East peace hinges on will
Prospects for war and peace in the Middle East next year pivot on the second
Obama administration's ability to withstand the pressure of the "Israel Lobby",
which is working hard to paint "preventing a nuclear Iran" as Washington's
biggest priority. Syria will prove the crucible of potential tensions, with
post-Bashar al-Assad scenarios either seeing Tehran handed an inclusive
mediation role or a regional fait accompli. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Dec 21, '12)
The fragile case for Palestinian
non-violence
A campaign of strategic non-violence by Palestinians could accomplish miracles,
particularly if accompanied by activism by the majority of Israelis who favor
peace. Side by side with this vision is a nightmare prospect of failure of
non-violence resulting in another bloody Palestinian uprising, or even
genocidal war. So far, the dangers outweigh the hope. - Victor Kotsev
(Dec 21, '12)
THE ROVING EYE
For whom the Syrian bell tolls
The rape of Syria is disaster capitalism in action, the terrain already
prepared for profitable "reconstruction" once a pliable, pro-Western government
is installed. With NATOGCC on one side and Iran-Russia on the other side,
ordinary Syrians opposed to the ethnic-religious cleansing promoted by the
"rebels" have nowhere to go. The bell tolls in Syria, not for thee, but for
doom, gloom, death and destruction. - Pepe Escobar
(Dec 21, '12)
Are the US and Israel heading for
a showdown?
The coming year may be a period of confrontation between the United States and
Israel. US President Barack Obama has good reason to apply pressure to bring
Israel and the Palestinians back to the table to negotiate a two-state
solution. Public theater meshed with private diplomacy is the key, and
political clashes in 2013 could be the first step to peace. - Ira Chernus
(Dec 21, '12)
Israel lobby rails against Pentagon
favorite
Leaders of the powerful Israel lobby are mobilizing for an all-out campaign
against US President Barack Obama's likely nomination of former Republican
senator Senator Chuck Hagel to secretary of defense. Neo-conservatives fear
that the appointment of the forthright critic of Israel would signal a key
shift in Middle East policy towards engagement with Iran - and "payback" to
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. - Jim Lobe
(Dec 19, '12)
US spying machine sees the light
The United States intelligence network is more visible than ever, with fallen
agents named and lionized, and a plethora of staggeringly bloated agencies
placing "covert" staff through a chain of fortified embassies. The US spying
machine now also has an irreplaceable fixture in pop culture, which allows it
to wage a low-level war on the global stage. - Tom Engelhardt
(Dec 18, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Turkey's Syria policy fits a
classic role
Support for Western-led intervention in Syria from Turkey's ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) contradicts its Islamic orientation, while opposition
from the military and secularists goes against their historic roles as US
allies. The reversal mirrors the 2003 lead-up to the Iraq war, when the newly
elected AKP backed US war efforts to build support and weaken its opponents. - Emad
Abdullah Ayasrah (Dec 18, '12)
Iran nuclear talks produce a litmus
test
Iran and the UN atomic agency, fresh from constructive talks, will push ahead
in January with finalizing an approach to resolving outstanding issues on
possible military dimensions of Tehran's nuclear program. With a history of
extra-legal demands having cast the International Atomic Energy Agency as a
pawn of Western powers, the next discussions will show whether the watchdog can
assert some independence. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Dec 17, '12)
Iran bomb graph doctored from
Internet
A set of graphs provided to the International Atomic Energy Agency as evidence
that Iran had been modelling nuclear weapons yields appears to have been
adapted from a scholarly article available on the Internet. While the UN
watchdog didn't identify the country that gave it the information, a path
through an international news agency suggests it may have been Israel. - Gareth
Porter (Dec 14, '12)
COMMENT
Changing the disarmament game
Nuclear-armed nations have used the voodoo of deterrence and ignored the
failings of non-proliferation treaties, while perpetuating the notion that
disarmament is an extraordinarily difficult military-technical process. It's
time for their leaders have to think in humanitarian and environmental terms,
as Mikhail Gorbachev did 25 years ago. - Rebecca Johnson
(Dec 14, '12)
Egypt faces a 'dark tunnel'
The referendum in Egypt this weekend on a new constitution that draws heavily
on Islamic law will shape the future of President Mohammed Morsi's regime and
perhaps the course of the Arab Spring in general. The military, while warning
of a "dark tunnel" ahead, has not taken sides. The United States, however, has
played its own extraordinarily risky bet. - Victor Kotsev
(Dec 14, '12)
Russia changes tack on Syria
Russia is throwing in the towel on Syria after an almost two-year holdout
against Western intervention. The Kremlin will have to display some deft
diplomacy if it is not now to be shut out of the eastern Mediterranean. Its
cards include probable knowledge of where to find Syria's chemical weapons, and
concern shared with the US of post-Assad stability. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 14, '12)
Opposition wins international
backing
More than 100 countries have recognized the Syrian National Coalition, formed
in Qatar in November, opening channels for military aid to opposition forces.
Western powers, scarred by the consequences of their action in Libya, are
stressing that direct military intervention is not currently on the cards.
(Dec 13, '12)
Syrian scuds cause a big bang
Reports that the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fired Scud
missiles at rebel forces, if verified, present yet another indication of the
regime's military weakness, and might be explained as a desperate response to
news that rebels may be moving close to taking control of chemical weapons
caches. Amid growing chaos, it increasingly appears that only a full-scale
ground intervention can stop further carnage. - Victor Kotsev
(Dec 13, '12)
Iran debates talking with the US
Public discussion of relations with the United States has historically been a
taboo in Iran, but that has changed to debate distinguished by its breadth,
including moving beyond the nuclear issue, and clear positioning of two sides.
Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has suggested a road to detente, but
shifts in the US position are required as encouragement for Tehran to take the
first step. - Farideh Farhi (Dec 12, '12)
Argo's blurred vision of
Iranians
Movies like Argo have squandered the opportunity to get Americans
thinking more seriously about starting a war against Iran, and a people who
have not been in control of their government since the early 1950s. Instead of
filling in gaps in the narrative of troubled relations, the latest Iran hostage
crisis flick portrays Iranians as a monolithic group of angry religious
fanatics. - Fouad Pervez (Dec 12, '12)
Moscow's Damascus road goes via
Grozny
Russian policy towards the Syria crisis may be more about Grozny than Tartus.
Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have already managed to "lose" Saddam
Hussein's Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi's Libya during their tenure. A repeat of the
Kremlin's tactics against Chechnya may prevent Bashar al-Assad's Syria becoming
yet another domino. - Derek Henry Flood (Dec
11, '12)
COMMENT
Just the Iran nuclear facts, not
the threats
In clarifying the "possible military dimension" of Iran's atomic program, the
United States should take care to base its accusations on facts, not the
figment of some other state's imagination. A diplomacy of threats and ultimata,
leading to another attempt to secure another nuclear non-compliance finding,
will do nothing to bring a much-needed end to Iranian suspicions of the West. - Peter
Jenkins (Dec 11, '12)
New Arab-Kurdish front could help
Assad
Clashes between Kurdish militias and armed Syrian opposition groups that
started near the Turkish border have raised the specter of a possible
Arab-Kurdish civil war in Syria, and likely diverted Ankara from supporting the
overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Civil war would weaken the rebel
efforts to take over strategic areas in northern Syria such as oil-rich Hasakah
province and Aleppo. - Wladimir van Wilgenburg
(Dec 11, '12)
COMMENT
Hamas at 25: Beyond the tired
language
Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal's first visit to Gaza to mark the 25th
anniversary of the Islamist group turns a spotlight on the tired narrative of
the division between good guys and bad guys. Hamas is still understood within
limited confines of a redundant discourse obsessed with Israel's security, and
later with an imagined Iranian threat. A new understanding of the group,within
its local context, is desperately required. - Ramzy Baroud
(Dec 10, '12)
Iran tests America's grasp of
reality
The three-decade-long "Wall of Mistrust" still looks impregnable as President
Barack Obama loses the urge to scale back America's default fear and loathing
to engage Iran honestly. Beyond nuclear lies are real questions (acknowledged
or not) of who will dominate a modern-day energy version of the old Silk Road,
and when the US will wake up to the fact that Eurasian powers increasingly
shape its reality. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 7,
'12)
Sanctions make nuclear accord
'unlikely'
Three dozen former top US foreign-policy makers, military officers, and
independent experts, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker,
have put their names to a report highlighting the futility of expectations that
Iran will agree to curb its nuclear program when economic sanctions are being
tightened. - Jim Lobe (Dec 7, '12)
BOOK REVIEW
Hirsute iconoclasts
Joseph Anton - A Memoir by Salman Rushdie.
Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder by Nassim Nicholas
Taleb
Salman Rushdie's most recent book describes the lead-up to the infamous death
sentence imposed on him by Ayatollah Khomeini, while Nassim Nicholas Taleb's
provides background to his examinations of probability in finance. This makes
the works seem incomparable, but both are brave accounts of presenting
counter-logic to a prevailing consensus, and both explore the radical
afterthought that comes from post-trauma. - Chan Akya
(Dec 7, '12)
Obama urged to rein in Netanyahu
As prominent voices in Washington urge Barack Obama to exert pressure on
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the muted official reaction to
Israel's latest West Bank settlement plan suggests the US president has no
intention of engaging in a bruising second-term battle. Instead he will focus
on domestic concerns, reducing US's Middle East "footprint", and consolidating
the Asia "pivot". - Jim Lobe (Dec 6, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Israel provokes a Doomsday test
Furious international reaction to Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to build a
"Doomsday" settlement will undermine the two-state solution to his country's
conflict with Palestine. The Israeli prime minister's defiance needs now to be
met with action - and that will put the credibility of the powers on the UN
Security Council to an historic test. - Nicola Nasser
(Dec 6, '12)
Assad faces life and death choice
There are no specific indications that the Syrian government intends to use
chemical weapons against its own citizens. Unused, they maintain some value if
Bashar al-Assad considers them a bargaining chip to ease his departure or to
deter foreign intervention. Either way, the Syrian leader is running out of
options other than to step down - or fight to the end. - Victor Kotsev
(Dec 6, '12)
THE ROVING EYE
I love the sound of
a drone in the morning
The United States - as usual, as always - denies everything regarding the
latest "missing" drone, as in the ScanEagle, now the star of Iranian TV. Maybe
its a terminology thing - Iran is not "the Middle East" - or maybe some ally
(the United Arab Emirates anyone?) is now one short in its drone fleet. Or
maybe an evil Eye-ranian spy stole it on a shopping trip to Dubai. - Pepe
Escobar (Dec 5, '12)
COMMENT
Eyeless in Gaza
Mahatma Gandhi's comment on a Biblical maxim, "An eye for an eye only ends up
making the whole world blind", describes the futility of the latest exchange of
rockets between Gaza and Israel. With the negotiation of a peace settlement in
the Middle East clearly on the American back burner, it is clear that the world
cannot look to President Barack Obama to supply necessary vision. - Jayantha
Dhanapala (Dec 5, '12)
Syria's chemical weapons, Iran's
red line
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may risk the international condemnation that
would follow any use of chemical weapons, even if countries such as Russia and
China could no longer defend him. Iran, which has in the past disavowed such
weapons, cannot stand silently by. Rather, Tehran must speak out now with a
forthright warning before any such folly is perpetrated. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Dec 4, '12)
Free Syria faces tough times
The Free Syrian Army is short of funding needed to maintain unity in towns and
villages being pounded by regime forces as it struggles to maintain essential
services and keep lines of communications open between those inside and outside
conflict areas. Weapons are high on their list of wants; they are unlikely to
get them. - Shelly Kittleson (Dec 4, '12)
A thumb in the eye for peace
The United Nations upgrade of Palestine's statehood status, meant to censure
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's settlement policy, has instead
simply bolstered Mahmoud Abbas's status in Palestinian eyes, especially
following Israel's military operation against Hamas. While Abbas comes back to
Ramallah with the message that non-violence pays, Israel is oblivious to a new
diplomatic order created by the vote. - Pierre Klochendler
(Dec 4, '12)
Palestine faces another 'historic'
crossroads
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' triumphant acceptance of
Palestine's elevation as a "non-member state" had echoes of Yasser Arafat's
famous 1974 address at the United Nations. The latter's promise of
international legitimacy merely ushered in decades of symbolic victories,
illustrating that Abbas must adopt a new strategy that revitalizes the
political discourse while unifying Palestinians. - Ramzy Baroud
(Dec 4, '12)
Nuclear-free chance 'squandered'
Security experts warn that an important opportunity to create stability in the
Middle East has been squandered with the cancellation of an international
conference this month to create a region free of nuclear weapons. "A deep
conceptual gap" on arms control led the UN-sponsored meeting to be called off,
according to co-sponsor the United States. - Jillian Kestler-D'Amours
(Dec 3, '12)
SPENGLER
The talented Mr Erdogan
Welcome to the post-American Middle East, where the United States is shocked -
shocked - to discover Turkey, its notional ally, has done more to help Iran
skirt sanctions that any other country. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan is the geopolitical cognate of the Talented Mr Ripley, and his economic
mirage is maintained only because Saudi Arabia counts on his country's military
to counterweigh Iran. (Dec 3, '12)
Palestine scores victory at the UN
The ceremonious unfurling of a Palestinian flag in the General Assembly after
the United Nations vote to elevate it to a "non-member state" reflected new
thinking in foreign ministries around the world. The United States remains
resolved not to support Palestine full membership, yet the postive reception
for Palestine can be seen as a small step to larger goals. - Thalif Deen
(Nov 30, '12)
False start for the French-Qatari
connection
The conspicuous position France has adopted in the Syrian conflict, becoming
the first Western power to recognize the revamped opposition forces as the
Syrian people's sole legitimate representative, reflects a French-Qatari
strategic joint-venture that brings Gulf dollars to France while Paris props up
Qatar's expansion in Africa. So far, it is making one misstep after another. - Emanuele
Scimia (Nov 30, '12)
Putin, Erdogan sashay into Syria
A renewed attempt to narrow differences over the crisis in Syria is on the
cards when Russian President Vladimir Putin gets down to talks in Istanbul on
Monday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Both can make a big
difference to easing the current stalemate in Syria , but the savvy leaders
know time is not ripe for a joint initiative. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Nov 30, '12)
The war ahead in Gaza
Life and war go on in Gaza after the UN vote and the failure of the Israeli
offensive achieve "Hiroshima-like" destruction that some Israelis sought. While
the lopsided death tally seems familiar, the recent conflict will prove game
changing because of the message Hamas and other resistance factions were able
to deliver. - Ramzy Baroud (Nov 30, '12)
Syria strains the semantics of
civil war
The use of "civil war" to describe what is taking place in Syria has taken hold
in recent months. The characterization is a far cry from its general
definition, but has its advantages for foreign powers, giving them a chance to
justify the choice of emotional distancing or intervention via covert
operations when it suits their aims. - Jacqueline Outka
(Nov 29, '12)
Palestinian "state" vote a crisis
moment
The United Nations General Assembly vote this week on whether to grant
non-member state status for Palestine within the borders before the 1967 war
may carry more symbolic than real weight. Yet it comes at a very sensitive
moment and could trigger major consequences. A crisis is a moment of
opportunity - and a significant crisis is expected if Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas secures the vote he seeks. - Victor Kotsev
(Nov 28, '12)
Gaza War may strengthen Iran's hand
The impressive rocket capability of Hamas in the recent Gaza conflict and the
limitations of Israel's protective "iron dome" shield have undermined Israel's
hostile posture towards Iran. That could prove a very strong positive in
Tehran's favor in forthcoming negotiations on its nuclear policy and in efforts
to secure a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Nov 28, '12)
COMMENT
Abetting murder in Gaza
The Obama administration's unconscionable decision to block a ceasefire effort
by the UN Security Council, before joining Egypt to broker last week's truce,
prolonged the conflict. At the UN, it is doubtful many people will take
Ambassador Susan Rice seriously again when she complains about Russia and China
vetoing resolutions. - Stephen Zunes (Nov 27,
'12)
'It's mostly punishment …'
Testimony by Israeli veterans of offensives on Gaza expose the truth of
"disengagement" before this month's operation, with schools smashed, weapons
searches ending in killings, and the persistence of a shoot-to-kill mentality
fiercely defended by commanders. The interviews suggest that when the Shin Bet
move in to take down "terrorists", it all comes down to "perspective". - Oded
Na'aman (Nov 27, '12)
Morsi, Egypt's Lincoln?
President Mohamed Morsi triggered the first real crisis of his presidency by
arrogating to himself near total control of all branches of the Egyptian
government. Revolt, from the street and the judiciary, against his
"dictatorial" move may on the surface be justified. History may deliver a
different view, as it did on Abraham Lincoln's treatment of opponents at times
of "necessity". - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 26,
'12)
Gaza ceasefire opens opportunities
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas signed last week eases restrictions on
the movement of people coming in and out of Gaza. That offers a signal for the
beginning of a new era, and the chance for the besieged Palestinian territory
to reverse its devastating descent. - Jillian Kestler-D'Amours
(Nov 26, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Syrian coalition faces testing time
The Free Syrian Army failed to demonstrate it represented most of the Syrian
people, and now international backers are asking the Syrian National Coalition
to pass the test. With division splitting the ranks of its regional and
international backers, recognition of the coalition will not be enough to end
the war. - Ahmed E Souaiaia (Nov 26, '12)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama the Pivot
You could almost hear the rush of faraway drones during President Barack
Obama's defense of Israel on his whirlwind tour of Southeast Asia. Wise heads
won't get fooled by the inherent hypocrisy, while it's clear that no amount of
presidential spin on the Asian 'pivot' cannot hide the sacrificial offshoring
of American jobs to contain China's rise. - Pepe Escobar
(Nov 21, '12)
Netanyahu wins a Pyrrhic victory
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cowed the re-elected US president
and his domestic opposition with Operation Pillar of Defense and can say he's
degraded Hamas's war machine and weakened its threat. However, these appear
outweighed by the Iron Dome rocket defense being proven a myth and the fact
that Tel Aviv - wary of new regional realities - sued for peace just three days
into the offensive. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov
21, '12)
Iran nuclear report stirs undue
fear
Accounts of the latest UN watchdog report on Iran's enrichment of uranium
suggest new reasons to fear Iran is closer to "breakout" capability to produce
a nuclear weapon. Yet news coverage of stockpiles is based on misleading data
and fails to throw into the mix the large number of centrifuges Tehran is
keeping idle as an incentive for international talks. - Gareth Porter
(Nov 21, '12)
A rare chance to miss in Gaza
Although the rockets continue to rain on Israel and air strikes pound Gaza, the
content of leaked talks suggest this conflict could actually result in a
breakthrough. It's becoming clear that Israel has a strong interest in prying
Gaza out of Iran's orbit and plugging the gaping security hole the Strip has
become, while Hamas needs peace to consolidate domestic power and for
international ambitions. - Victor Kotsev (Nov
20, '12)
New balance of terror in the Middle
East
The military prowess of Hamas through its upgraded rocket capability in the
week-long war between Israel and the Palestinians reflects a changing balance
of terror, albeit one still still deeply to Israel's advantage. Yet, since it
adds to Israeli geostrategic vulnerabilities, the extension of Hamas' reach
contains the potential for a more meaningful bid for ultimate peace. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Nov 20, '12)
Gaza crisis has more to come
The deep causes behind the violence in Gaza involve internal rivalries on both
sides and foreign interests. With the election campaign in Israel ramping up
and Hamas opposed to Fatah's push for international legitimacy, winners and
losers from the heightened conflict are obscure. Israel does need a resolution
to the continued rocket fire - fast - and one that doesn't risk diplomatic
disaster with Egypt. - Victor Kotsev (Nov 19,
'12)
Netanyahu's high-stakes game in
Gaza
The last time Israel attacked Palestinians in full force many UN and
international rights organizations said it committed war crimes worth of
international tribunals. None took place, thanks to the shield of the US
government and media. Now Palestinian deaths will again buttress Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an unbending guardian against "an existential
threat" to the Jewish state. The truth remains irrelevant. - Ramzy Baroud
(Nov 19, '12)
THE
ROVING EYE
Bomb Iran? No.
Bomb Gaza? Yes!
Frustrated with the re-election of US President Barack Obama and his pledges to
pursue diplomacy with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
engineered an offensive on the last place Israeli Defense Forces can wreak
havoc with total impunity. Don't expect condemnation of the Gazan assault from
Gulf Arabs or Western "Friends of Syria", but Egypt could draw new battlelines.
- Pepe Escobar (Nov 16, '12)
Netanyahu calls Obama's bluff
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marshals troops toward Gaza,
Barack Obama is making a grievous error by being seen as walking in step.
Post-election optimism over direct talks with Iran will be shattered should
Israel invade, and the Arab world will view the US president as full of empty
promises. In one swipe, Netanyahu has made Gaza the litmus test of Obama's
statesmanship. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 16,
'12)
World braces for Syrian trainwreck
The reorganized overseas Syrian opposition still looks ill-equipped (where are
the death squads?) to counter the Salafist jihadis filling the power vacuum
created by the civil war, and a political settlement remains unlikely, barring
the emergence of a Sunni strongman. The continuing bloody chaos is, however,
another opportunity for Beijing to advance its interests in the neighborhood.- Peter
Lee (Nov 16, '12)
THE ROVING EYE
How sexy is Benghazi?
Scandal or not, former CIA chief David Petraeus has agreed to face the Senate
over the US consulate attack in Benghazi, and likely questions about what his
agents were really doing in Libya. While it's hard to concentrate on foreign
policy with all the turpitude flowing from the Love Pentagon, Benghazi may be
the hors d'oeuvre to what the US and its frenemies are now brewing up in Syria.
- Pepe Escobar (Nov 15, '12)
Israel kills Hamas military chief
Hamas commander Ahmad Jabari has been killed by an Israeli missile fired as a
precursor to a intense air strikes targeting armed groups on the Gaza Strip.
The sustained attack marked the biggest escalation between Israel and Gaza
fighters since the 2008-2009 conflict and came despite signs of an
Egyptian-brokered truce after a five-day surge of violence.
(Nov 15, '12)
Last call for Syria
Time is running out to stop the Syrian civil war following the utter collapse
of the Eid al-Adha ceasefire attempted by United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.
The latest reshuffles of the rebel leadership are unlikely to produce a
meaningful change in the dynamics on the ground and increasing
internationalization of the conflict will serve merely to prolong it. - Victor
Kotsev (Nov 14, '12)
Israel ranked as most militarized
nation
Israel is the world's most militarized nation, according to an annual index
that puts Middle Eastern countries high in the rankings and lists Iran at
number 34. Southeast Asia, led by second-placed Singapore, appears ascendant as
tensions build in the South China Sea. North Korea - whose arsenal has proven
impervious to analysis - was excluded. - Jim Lobe
(Nov 14, '12)
EU enables Israeli colonialism
The European Union's role as a major funder of the Palestinian Authority and
advocate of the two-state solution is undermined by its status as a major
market for the settlements that keeps them prosperous. While the United States'
economic support of Israel is openly one-sided and "unconditional", it seems
the EU's financial strategy deviously ensures the very occupation the grouping
is supposedly trying to end. - Ramzy Baroud (Nov
14, '12)
The Levant braces for regional war
Israeli retaliation on Monday against a Syrian strike across the border and a
fatal exchange in Gaza over the weekend point to Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's desire to stop the slow escalation in violence in over the
past months. With the strike on Syria turning the clock back to the 1973
October War, the region could now face an incredibly destructive conflict on
several fronts. - Victor Kotsev (Nov 13, '12)
Trade tilts balance in EU-Israeli
ties
The European Union, as Israel's main trading partner, should assert its
commercial heft in forcing Israeli leaders to obey international law and the
Oslo Accords in regard to occupied Palestinian territory, say some officials.
At the same time, Israel moves ever-closer to integration into the EU single
market. - Emanuele Scimia (Nov 9, '12)
Iran pays price for Chinese support
China's rising international profile and reliance on energy imports have
created a perfect answer to Iran's need to contain the negative effects of a
confrontational policy towards the West. However, Beijing's persistence in
seeking deeper oil discounts and reluctance to offer real support on the
nuclear issue underline the pitfalls of a lop-sided relationship. - Richard
Javad Heydarian (Nov 9, '12)
Obama in the West Bank
Released from re-election demands, President Barack Obama has an opportunity to
re-engage with the "Palestinian problem". Visiting the West Bank in person
would be a stretch; appointing a new envoy, receiving Palestinian officials and
visiting Israel would have real political benefits. But Obama is no Jimmy
Carter, so expect business as usual. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Nov 9, '12)
White House gets 'legacy'
opportunity
A second term gives President Obama an opportunity to take on big challenges
and cement his legacy, though a hostile Republican House of Representatives
remains a huge hurdle. For one, a strong Jewish voter turnout in his favor may
give him more room for maneuver than he previously thought for maneuver on both
Israel-Palestine and Iran, if he chooses to exercise it. - Jim Lobe
(Nov 8, '12)
The politics of money in Palestine
Most outside funds that go into Palestine, including Gaza, come with a clear,
political manual dutifully followed by those who provide the cash and those who
receive them. Palestinians face a difficult challenge to untie these impossible
entanglements, but those who rent their sovereignty to the highest bidder have
no business speaking of national liberation, popular resistance and empty
slogans. - Ramzy Baroud (Nov 8, '12)
UN warns Syria heading to
destruction
Syria is spiraling toward "destruction" and the risk of regional spillover from
the insurrection is growing by the day, the United Nations has warned the
Security Council. Sharp divisions through China and Russia vetoes of Western
resolutions against President Bashar al-Assad point to one of the biggest
political failures of the international organization yet. - Thalif Deen
(Nov 7, '12)
Saudis lag behind Iran in
Afghanistan
The scene is set for an aggressive competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran
for a role in Afghanistan as Riyadh, after years of quiet support, embarks on a
very public effort to cement links with Kabul. With Tehran having spent
millions of dollars on infrastructure to build on cultural and political ties,
the Saudis have their work cut out to usurp their archrival's conspicuous
advantage. - Frud Bezhan (Nov 7, '12)
Fog of war obscures Netanyahu's
Iran order
The long-running theme of a threat by Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Iran has
taken a new twist with reports this week that the Israeli prime minister
ordered the military to prepare for an imminent strike on Iranian nuclear sites
in 2010. Yet details steal the thunder of the warmongering claims, showing the
Netanyahu's instruction to commanders was a notch lower than an order for war.
- Gareth Porter (Nov 7, '12)
Dogs of war bark in the US
A combination of the neoconservative company Mitt Romney keeps and his
sway-able nature suggest threats to exercise the US's "credible military
option" on Iran could easily become more than campaign bravado. For the
conservative fearmongers, anti-Tehran lobbies and the religous right factions
who've for years shouted about a "nuclear weapons program" - despite credible
information stating otherwise - this could be their time. - Jeremiah Goulka
(Nov 6, '12)
Great leap backward in the Gulf
Repressive measures by Gulf countries have seen Kuwait fire tear gas at
protesters, Bahrain implement a ban on public demonstrations, and Western
silence on the matter make a mockery of criticism over human-right violations
elsewhere in the region. The timing of the crackdowns suggests new
determination by dynastic emirates to resist political change. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Nov 6, '12)
Hezbollah's role in Syria grows
murky
Reports that Hezbollah is sending troops to help the Syrian government fight
rebels have met with doubt that the group would risk moving forces from defense
of the Southern Lebanon border and concern over potential implications for the
civil war. If true, it won't be long before enemies capitalize on any
overstretching of Hezbollah's limited resources. - Nicholas A Heras
(Nov 5, '12)
Election won't alter US course in
Syria
US President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney have both called for Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad to be overthrown amid minimal US involvement, with
the former seemingly favoring a political solution and the latter further
arming of the rebels. The relatively low political priority of the issue means
neither candidate is likely to take international pressure a step higher in
victory. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 5, '12)
COMMENT
Nuclear talks with Iran: prospects
The re-election of the incumbent US president permitting, there are signs of
serious intent among international negotiators to resume nuclear-related talks
with Iran in the next few months. While that ought to be good news for
believers in the power of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a healthy
measure of skepticism remains in order. - Peter Jenkins
(Nov 5, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Beware of the Islamist trap
The West lumps Sunni Muslim groups in the Middle East together as "Islamists",
assuming that this supposedly cohesive force seeks control of the Middle East
and is inherently hostile to the interests of the United States and its allies.
This misperception ignores sweeping differences and incompatibility between
models such as Turkey's Islam lite and Salafism, and draws a needless and
dangerous battle line . - Monte Palmer (Nov
5, '12) |
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ATol Specials
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06 - ongoing)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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