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EDITORIAL
Iran on the brink
To no
one's surprise, but to the dismay of many - mainly
Europeans - the Bush administration's attention in the
war on terrorism is increasingly focusing on Iraq and
the removal of Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile, however, the
people of another member of George W Bush's axis of
evil, Iran, may well be on the verge of ridding
themselves - with little US help and to marginal
Washington interest - of an oppressive regime deeply
implicated in the funding of terrorists.
No less
a figure than the Ayatollah Jalaluddin Taheri, the imam
of the major city of Isfahan, its Friday prayers speaker
for the past 30 years and the official representative of
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, resigned his
posts on July 9 and released a stinging five-page letter
denouncing the Islamic Republic's regime of conservative
clerics. "I am embarrassed and ashamed," he wrote. "You
cannot blame [the United States and the Shah] for the
failures and corruption of our country [which] have all
resulted in our people turning away from Islam, rising
unemployment, inflation, high cost of living and a
satanic gap between the rich and the poor."
He
describes the regime as a vast mafia that is responsible
for "a failing foreign policy, corruption, bribery,
brain drain and the harassment and jailing of
journalists and writers". These people, he said, "are
riding on a stupid camel of power onto the field of
politics". And worst of all, this mafia gang funds and
supports vigilante forces who "continuously sharpen
their dinosaur fangs of violence, with the hope of
marrying their ugly, oppressive, fear-evoking bride of
violence to religion".
July 9 marked the
anniversary of the large, violent 1999 student rally
against the regime at the University of Teheran.
Thousands took to the streets in Teheran, tens of
thousands in Isfahan, where they fought with the
militias deployed to stop demonstrations. These were no
mild-mannered protest rallies; the demonstrators called
for an end to the regime. And when the militias
attacked, something quite extraordinary occurred: local
police and even members of the "Guardians of the
Revolution" (Pasdaran), shielded the protesters and took
their side.
Does all this mean that the end is
near for the aging heirs of Ayatollah Khomeini's 1979
revolution devoted to continuing suppression of a large,
reform-minded majority of the population more than half
of which is under the age of 25? There is no quick and
easy answer. The reformist parliamentary majority
supports timid reformer President Mohammad Khatami and
seeks compromise with and concessions from the
reactionary mullahs. No radical reformer of national
standing who would do away with "mullahcracy" has
emerged. Under such circumstances, only a popular
uprising could purge the conservative clerics from their
seat of power - or force Khatami's hand in doing so. But
the prospects for such an uprising are difficult to
assess.
Khatami said in early May, "Our society
is on the threshold of disorder" and added that "Iran
did not vote for me but voted for justice and freedom in
the framework of the constitution." Ayatollah Ebrahim
Amini, the deputy head of the influential and
conservative Assembly of Experts - the body that has the
authority to appoint or dismiss the country's supreme
leader - said on May 16 that "Iran is on the verge of a
social explosion."
But words alone will not put
an end to arbitrary, oppressive and corrupt clerical
rule. And Khatami's and Amini's words, if anything,
underscore that moderate reformers and conservatives
alike are aware of the challenges they face and are
ready to mobilize their available resources to preserve
the status quo.
It is nonetheless obvious from
the events of July 9 and subsequent days in which 125
parliamentarians expressed their support for Ayatollah
Taheri, despite a ban on such public declarations, that
the status quo is highly unstable and that, in
particular, the violent actions of hard-line militias
and vigilantes could trigger a mass response that
neither the government nor the clique of conservative
clerics can control. Taheri has labeled those vigilantes
who have sometimes interrupted his sermons in Isfahan,
"louts and fascists, who are a mixture of ignorance and
madness, but whose umbilical cord is connected to the
center of power and who are completely uncontrolled and
beyond the law." By arbitrary violence through which
they intend to protect unaccountable clerical rule,
those louts may very well catalyze events that will
drive them and their patrons out of power in a whirlwind
of violent counterforce.
In a belated (July 12)
and largely mildly phrased statement of support, Bush
said that, "As we have witnessed over the past few days,
the people of Iran want the same freedoms, human rights
and opportunities as people around the world. Their
government should listen to their hopes." (See below for
Bush's full statement.) As cautious as Bush's statement
was, it evoked immediate and strong condemnation from
Khatami and members of his government, charging undue US
interference in Iran's internal affairs.
Such
disproportionately touchy reaction shows just how tense
and unsettled things are in Iran at this point - and how
large the opportunities for dramatic change to end 23
years of stifling mullah dictatorship. Overt material
Western intervention would be the wrong policy. Iran
must come to terms with itself. And yet it is galling to
see that EU member countries with very considerable
influence in Iran (France, Germany) are staying entirely
on the sidelines with barely a peep, not even
significant press coverage. As a result of modest
reforms over the past several years, most Iranians now
have access to international media, including radio and
television. The least one should expect is statements of
support of the Bush variety to encourage students and
ordinary people who put their lives on the line to
regain their political freedom.
Some time over
the next six to nine months, the US will move militarily
on Iraq, unless perchance Saddam makes an earlier exit.
Europeans will howl in protest about US imperial
unilateralism. They may want to consider that clear
expressions of support for the Iranian opposition now
could create changes there and in the larger region that
might hold the best chance for making military
intervention in an isolated Iraq unnecessary.
Statement by President George W Bush on Iran
(July 12)
We have seen throughout history the
power of one simple idea: when given a choice, people
will choose freedom. As we have witnessed over the past
few days, the people of Iran want the same freedoms,
human rights, and opportunities as people around the
world. Their government should listen to their hopes.
In the last two Iranian presidential elections
and in nearly a dozen parliamentary and local elections,
the vast majority of the Iranian people voted for
political and economic reform. Yet their voices are not
being listened to by the unelected people who are the
real rulers of Iran. Uncompromising, destructive
policies have persisted, and far too little has changed
in the daily lives of the Iranian people. Iranian
students, journalists and Parliamentarians are still
arrested, intimidated, and abused for advocating reform
or criticizing the ruling regime. Independent
publications are suppressed. And talented students and
professionals, faced with the dual specter of too few
jobs and too many restrictions on their freedom,
continue to seek opportunities abroad rather than help
build Iran's future at home. Meanwhile, members of the
ruling regime and their families continue to obstruct
reform while reaping unfair benefits.
Iran is an
ancient land, home to a proud culture with a rich
heritage of learning and progress. The future of Iran
will be decided by the people of Iran. Right now, the
Iranian people are struggling with difficult questions
about how to build a modern 21st century society that is
at once Muslim, prosperous, and free. There is a long
history of friendship between the American people and
the people of Iran. As Iran's people move toward a
future defined by greater freedom, greater tolerance,
they will have no better friend than the United States
of America.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
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Iran Diary
A 9-part series by
Pepe Escobar.
(May-June, '02)
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