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Showdown at the UN
By
Mark Berniker
NEW YORK - As United States and
British diplomats scramble to get a new weapons
inspection resolution against Iraq, the Russians, French
and Chinese are looking to leverage their veto power in
the Security Council, likely scuttling President George
W Bush's plan to get a stronger resolution that could
pave the way for the use of military force against Iraq.
Despite a flurry of recent diplomatic activity -
including a planned open meeting of the full Security
Council on Wednesday - the real bargaining is taking
place behind the scenes. Of the veto-wielding powers,
the French appear to be taking the hardest line, while
the Russians are signaling that they may soften their
position. Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy is
nothing if not pragmatic, focused on the country's
economic interests in Iraq. Russia wants to play a major
role in the future development of its massive oil
reserves, the second largest in the world, and is very
concerned that it has a place at the table with a role
in shaping a post-Saddam Iraq, especially its massive
petroleum sector.
Russia has legitimate
interests in Iraqi oil fields, given that Iraq owes
Russia more than US$7 billion in outstanding debt
repayments. Meanwhile, Russia has become Iraq's largest
trading partner, with more than $40 billion in
Russian-Iraqi trading contracts. Beyond the debts and
existing deals, Putin is playing to a domestic political
audience, and does not want to be seen in Moscow as
easily bending to American and British intentions. There
are real questions whether Russia will ever see the
billions Iraq already owes it, but that does not mean
Russia is ready to relinquish its interests to develop
oil reserves on Iraqi territory. Russia's LUKoil has a
$3.5 billion deal to develop Iraqi oil reserves over the
next 23 years, including the West Qurna field. The
Russians may ultimately support the US-backed new
weapons inspection resolution at the United Nations, but
that doesn't mean it won't get struck down by one of the
other Security Council members.
It's now
emerging that France is the lead nation moving to block
a new Iraqi resolution as an opportunity to take what it
sees as its seat at the table of world affairs. (It also
has its own oil interests in Iraq, and has played a
principal role in the UN-backed food-for-oil program.)
Publicly, neither France nor Russia has formally backed
a new, tougher UN resolution against Iraq. Putin has
exhibited the most flexibility, while China's Jiang
Zemin was been virtually silent until Tuesday, when he
said that UN weapons inspectors should return to Iraq
before the Security Council decided what action to take.
On the heels of Bush's "use of force" backing by
the US Congress, the US diplomatic mission to the United
Nations is doing everything in its power to propose
language in a new weapons inspection resolution against
Iraq that will be acceptable to all five members of the
Security Council. That resolution could be released
before the end of this week, and it does not appear to
have the support it will need to gain passage. If that
were to occur, it would be a serious international
political snub of Bush and Blair, and may have the
unintended consequence of accelerating military force
against Iraq, with the US simply going on its own.
The main sticking point in the draft resolution
appears to be the US intention of using "automatic"
force if Iraq does not comply with its proposed new
resolution. On Wednesday, there will be an open debate
at the United Nations, and there is likely to be
widespread international outrage to any resolution that
would sanction the "use of force" by the UN Security
Council. As of now, UN weapons inspectors, under the
supervision of Hans Blix, are expected to arrive in
Baghdad on October 19, and it is still unclear if his
inspectors will have a new resolution that would enable
them to scower Saddam's most secretive sites.
Diplomatic discussions continue both in New York
at the United Nations and around the world, with UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan in China for talks with top
authorities. Annan is said to support a French
two-pronged approach, which clearly is more palatable to
China and Russia. Under France's "two-resolution
approach", one resolution that would spell out stricter
inspection terms, while a second would state the
consequences if Iraq doesn't comply with the still
dubious new inspection regime. The French plan seems to
have the support of Russia and China, either of which
could veto any US-sponsored UN resolution. The major
issue for Russia, China and France concerns any
resolution that would greenlight a US-led military
invasion of Iraq without more explicit evidence that
Saddam is developing weapons of mass destruction.
"Russia does not have in its possession any
trustworthy data that would support the existence of
nuclear weapons on any weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq, and we have not received from our partners such
information as yet," Putin told a press conference after
his recent meetings with Tony Blair in the Russian
countryside, including the British government's recently
disclosed dossier that alleges Saddam has weapons of
mass destruction that he's ready to use.
Putin
supports the return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq,
under existing resolutions, but isn't yet openly
supporting any new resolutions, at this time. But the
Russian president isn't ruling out the possibility of
backing a tougher UN resolution in the future. The fact
that Putin has left open the possibility of supporting
tougher UN resolutions in the future may be a way of
backing into a compromise in return for political
support for Russia's war in Chechnya and a major
economic role in a post-Saddam Iraq.
And if the
US-sponsored UN resolution concerning weapons
inspections in Iraq is vetoed by any of the three
potential foes in the UN Security Council, Bush has made
clear that the US will be ready to go to war. There is
no question that military strategists in Washington are
drafting pre-war plans and invasion strategies, and that
policy makers are discussing what a post-Saddam Iraq may
look like. If anyone doubted whether Bush and Blair were
serious about taking military action against Iraq, one
could point to the reports on Tuesday that US and UK
bombers hit the Iraqi command and control site at Al-Kut
in southern Iraq.
While it is still far from
clear that there will be a US-led invasion of Iraq, or
if Saddam Hussein will be found, toppled or otherwise
deposed, the Bush administration is keen to remove the
instability that Saddam presents to the Middle East. It
is also interested in gaining access to Iraqi oil. But
while the US wants to "disarm" Iraq and is committed to
"regime change", it is still far from clear whether the
United Nations or public opinion in Europe or the US
will support its currently aggressive stance.
Mark Berniker is a freelance
journalist specializing in Eurasian affairs.
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