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A geopolitical earthquake on the
Bosporus
By Mark Berniker
Turkey's democracy has taken an Islamic turn,
and now its new leaders face a decimated economy and a
populace wary of a war on Iraq. While it is still too
early to ascertain what Turkey's new foreign policy will
be, the new moderate Islamic party is immediately being
tossed into a hellfire of domestic and international
politics.
Upon the landslide victory of the
Justice and Development Party (AK) of Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, American, British and Greek diplomats were
reserved in their congratulations for the democratic
victory of the new pro-Islamist government. But how much
does anyone about know what the party will do? The AK,
in the wake of its victory, was quick to call itself
pro-Western in an implicit endorsement of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization and an indication of its
strong interest in future European Union membership.
Erdogan, who cannot serve in the new government
because of a court conviction relating to an
inflammatory poem he recited in 1999, was outspoken
during his election campaign against a possible war on
Iraq, saying that any action must be backed by the
United Nations. A real concern in Ankara is the impact a
war may have on the already ravaged Turkish economy. The
Gulf War is said to have cost the Turks US$50 billion in
trade, and it has become the largest debtor nation of
the International Monetary Fund. Turkey's economic
crisis did not end with the election of the AK, and US
plans for possible military action against Iraq appear
undeterred.
Lead military planner, US Army
General Tommy Franks, was in Turkey in October, and
Turkish General Hilmi Ozkok is headed to Washington this
week, just as the United Nations is about to vote on the
US-backed resolution for tougher military inspections in
Iraq. While the AK may shift Turkey's foreign policy
over time, there are indications its government will do
little to alienate Turkey's powerful military generals,
or throw a monkey wrench into US plans for military
action against Iraq.
Turkey's current hosting of
US warplanes at the southern air base of Incirlik is
thought to be one of the key staging grounds in a
planned military attack against targets in nearby Iraq.
While the AK's backers delivered a democratic drubbing
of the ruling party of outgoing premier Bulent Ecevit,
the Turkish military generals are still in place, and
they are not only pro-Western, they are a cornerstone of
the US planned air offensive against Iraq.
But
there are other tricky issues which the new government
will have to navigate, including the Kurds. The Pentagon
has made it clear that it wants to arm and train the
Kurds in northern Iraq, a very thorny issue for Ankara.
And the Europeans have expressed concern about Turkish
treatment of its Kurds, while Turkey has been outraged
by European support of Kurdish independence groups.
At the moment, entry into the European Union
remains a long-term goal for Turkey. In a country where
a pro-Islamic party is being legitimized by its dramatic
electoral win, the populist nature of the AK's victory
is also causing some concern for diplomats in Europe's
capitals. But nearly 2 million of Turkey's 68 million
citizens have lost their jobs in recent years - a major
reason why Ecevit was booted out of power. Part and
parcel of Turkey's recovery plan from its recent
economic depression is its hopes to jumpstart a
discussion for its possible invitation into the European
Union at an upcoming meeting in December in Copenhagen,
Denmark. And while there is unreserved support by the
Americans, the Europeans are more nervous about the
prospect of Turkish ascension to the European Union.
If Turkey was admitted to the EU, some say
Europeans, the EU would have to turn a blind eye to its
human rights abuses, and demographic evidence reveals
that Turkey would become the most populated state in the
EU by 2010. But the sticking point from Turkey's
admission to the EU is its human rights record, or the
so-called "Copenhagen criteria". To that end, Turkey has
put a moratorium on the death penalty, banned torture,
made changes in its judicial structure and claimed to
have reformed its democratic institutions.
And
while there are many in Turkey who want to see the
country gain EU membership, there are politicians within
Turkey who are not as likely to lean towards Europe and
the US. This constituency is more interested in becoming
a regional power spanning the northern Middle East to
central Eurasia, with closer links to Iran, Russia, and
expanding economic and political relations with the
Caucasian and Central Asian states.
Turkey now
stands at a moment of historic change with an
opportunity to make some much-needed domestic political
reforms, just as its international military expectations
are rising. An upcoming party meeting in Ankara will
discuss both domestic and foreign policy strategy. While
Western markets and diplomats were supportive of the AK
victory, now come the tougher questions of whether
Turkey will amend its strict secular laws, and what
impact that might have on the relationship between
domestic democratic reform, the country's military
chiefs and the resulting foreign policy of the new
moderate Islamic state in the new center of the world.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co Ltd. All rights
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