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Politics and the 'pipeline of
peace'
By S Pourriahi
TEHRAN - A month after his trip to neighboring Pakistan, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami is traveling to India with high hopes to iron out disputes between the two nuclear states and also bring about his long-delayed "pipeline of peace". Khatami
has been asked by Islamabad to use his "authority" to
normalize ties between Islamabad and New Delhi, paving
the way for implementation of the more than 2,000
kilometer gas pipeline, designed to transfer Iranian
natural gas to the lucrative Indian market.
The pipeline is important not only to India but to
Pakistan as well. India desperately needs gas amid
dwindling domestic supplies and growing hunger for
energy. For Pakistan, the pipeline would mean cheaper
gas plus an economic windfall, bringing in an
estimated US$500 million annually in transit fees.
But none of the countries involved - Iran, Pakistan
and India - views the pipeline in purely economic
terms. Even more important are the project's
socio-political and strategic ramifications. For such
a pipeline to succeed in moving the gas to market, all
three parties will have to maintain and respect
regional stability and security. In other words, for
this project, it takes three to tango.
And the most unwilling partner in the dance might, in
this instance, be the one stuck in the middle. For
Iran and India, it is clear that an overland pipeline
traversing Pakistani territories would be the most
economical option, but whether or not Islamabad
secures the safety of the pipeline remains unclear.
With giant companies vying for the
multi-billion-dollar project, construction of the
pipeline has been conditioned on a stable relationship
between India and Pakistan, and it is far from certain
that the Islamic Republic would stick to its policy of
detente even to guarantee the security of the
pipeline.
Three options are open for delivering gas from
southern Iran to Pakistan's Sindh province and onwards
to India.
An onshore 2,500 kilometer overland link, for which
Australia's BHP Billiton has held talks with the
National Iranian Oil Company;
A 2,775 kilometer pipeline passing through Pakistani
waters with a spur line taking gas to shore, for which
Russia's Gazprom has now become a contender;
An offshore 2,000 kilometer deep sea pipeline directly
from Iran to India, for which Italian pipe-lay
contractor Saipem is carrying out feasibility studies.
Although the onshore project seems to be the least
expensive, the coastal route is seen as the likeliest
option since a pipeline traversing from the Pakistani
territories is viewed as vulnerable to terrorist
sabotage by New Delhi.
Tehran has apparently turned to diplomacy over the pipeline with Pakistani press reporting the visit of a high-powered Iranian team to Islamabad in February to seek security guarantees on the gas pipeline project. The guarantees would be sought in the light
of the discussions to be held between India and Iran
leaders during Iranian President Mohammad Khatami's
visit to India. Mohammad Hossein Adeli, Iran's deputy foreign minister for
economic affairs, also made it clear during his earlier visit to
India that Tehran was
determined to win the growing Indian energy market, saying Iran was considering all options to bring
gas to Indian coasts.
"We have conveyed Iran's point of view to India in the
energy sector regarding the land and sea routes of the
Indo-Iran gas pipeline, as well as the technical and
economic studies of these routes," he was quoted by IRNA as saying.
With regard to Iran's latest policies for boosted gas
exploitation and exports, a trilateral agreement
signed last month between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan
and Pakistan to build a $2.5 billion natural gas
pipeline could have also prompted the Iranian side to
try to move ahead more quickly with its own pipeline
projects.
Experts see some cause for optimism in a memorandum of
cooperation signed on January 16 between the Gas
Authority of India Limited and Iran's National Iranian
Gas Exports Company. The memo touches on the
construction of the pipeline either onshore or deep
sea.
But even the most optimistic observers do not see a
pipeline in sight any time soon, with Tehran and New
Delhi expressing concern over the security of the gas
link. Iran and India say that they are worried for the
security of the pipeline as long as the standoff
continues between New Delhi and Islamabad. Pakistan,
however, has repeatedly and officially guaranteed the
security of the pipeline, saying that it would take
all possible measures to improve the situation in the
area. Pakistani Foreign Minister Mian Khursheed Mahmood
Kasuri said on December 11 that Islamabad was ready to
give Tehran any guarantees of wider cooperation
between the two countries in the construction of the
planned gas pipeline.
Khatami will certainly be
forwarding this guarantee message to India, which has
shown reservations of becoming reliant on Pakistan as
its means of energy transit.
If accomplished, the venture will translate economic
collaboration into social and political discourse
between the two South Asian rival states. But while
the current state of tensions persists between India
and Pakistan, the pipeline will remain only a plan on
paper.
(©2003 Asia Times Online
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