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Syria expects the worst
By
Hooman Peimani
The Syrian regime, fearful of the
expansion of the ongoing American-British war to its
territory once the invading side has achieved its
objectives in Iraq, has reacted angrily to US Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld accusing Syria of
"interference" in Iraq, with Syrian Information Minister
Adnan Omran saying that "it takes only a madman to widen
the circle of war".
Rumsfeld has accused Syria
and Iran of being engaged in "hostile acts". He warned
Iran about allegedly allowing an Iran-based Iraqi
opposition to deploy its forces in Iraq, but he reserved
his anger for Syria for its alleged delivery of military
equipment to the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein.
Rumsfeld claimed that Syria had transferred Russian-made
night-vision goggles and other unspecified military
equipment to the Iraqi military, which posed "a direct
threat to the lives of coalition forces". He added, "We
consider such trafficking as hostile acts and will hold
the Syrian government accountable for such shipments."
Syria was not named in the US "axis of evil" of
Iran, Iraq and North Korea, but the United States
apparently believes that there is evidence of support
for terrorism by Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad
has been at the forefront of Arab opposition to the Iraq
war and there is suspicion in the US that Assad has
actively collaborated with Saddam Hussein and agreed to
take weapons, including Scud missiles, from him so they
would not be discovered in Iraq by United Nations
weapons inspectors.
The Syrian government is
understandably concerned about a US attack on it to
change its regime, a policy backed, if not pushed, by
Israel, which wants to turn hostile Syria, its last
major Arab enemy, into a docile neighbor. Despite United
Nations resolutions, Israel's refusal to withdraw from
Syria's Golan Heights, which has been under its
occupation since 1967, has demonstrated its willingness
to annex that territory. The Syrians therefore see
Israel as the real force behind the US war on Iraq and a
call for its expansion to Syria and Iran. No wonder
Omran held, "We see no sign that the United States can
look at the region except from one vantage point -
Israel's."
A few days after his initial attack,
Rumsfeld repeated his warning. During a Pentagon
briefing he accused Syria of continuing to allow the
shipment of military equipment into Iraq, stating: "We
have seen that Syria is continuing to conduct itself the
way it was prior to the time I said what I said."
Rumsfeld did not specify if, when and/or how the United
States would react to Syria's alleged "hostile"
activities. Among other factors, lack of such
specification and the longer-than-expected war in Iraq
convinced the Syrians that they should not expect an
immediate attack. Thus Hassan Shaban, head of the Syrian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs' information bureau, felt
confident enough to state that his government did not
take Rumsfeld's remarks as a threat of US military
action against Syria.
Nevertheless, the Syrians
have taken the threat very seriously. Hence they have
sought to stop the ongoing war against Iraq along with
other regional states (Iran and Turkey) concerned about
its long-term implications. Unlike Turkey, with which
Syria has had troubled relations, Iran is a friendly
country sharing Syria's concern as another target of
recent US accusations and warnings. Turkey, which
cooperates to a limited extent with the Americans in
their war, is also concerned about the radicalization of
its Kurdish minority as a result of the emergence of an
Iraqi Kurd independent state.
Sharing borders
with Iraq, the three states have been in close contact
since the war broke out. On April 1, Syrian Foreign
Minister Farouq al-Shara held separate telephone
conversations with his Iranian (Kamal Kharrazi) and
Turkish (Abdullah Gul) counterparts to find a way to
stop the war. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency
(SANA), the three ministers called "for further measures
to be taken by the United Nations in line with peaceful
settlement of the Iraqi crisis within the framework of
the international laws and based on maintaining the
territorial integrity of Iraq".
Syria has also
sought the assistance of the European Union, which has
its own reasons for grievances with the US. During a
news conference on April 1, European Commission
spokesperson for external relations Emma Udwin clearly
expressed the EU opposition to any US war against Syria
and Iran. Despite the mentioned US warnings, she stated,
"Our relationship with those two countries remains
unaffected." She added, "We are in a situation where in
each case our relationship allows dialogue including on
the question of non-proliferation and there is no reason
at this moment to change the terms of our relationship
with Iran and Syria ... one needs to do everything
possible to reduce the emergence of new tensions or
escalating of existing tensions."
The Americans'
hint at a plan to expand their war to Iran and Syria has
so far failed to receive any encouragement from regional
and non-regional states, including the members of the
"coalition of the willing". The Australian government
has clearly stated its opposition to such expansion,
while the British government has denied any such plan
and distanced itself from any such war in the future.
During a March 3 interview with the British Broadcasting
Corp Arabic service, British Prime Minister Tony Blair
stressed: "I know of absolutely no plan to do that." He
added, "There is no question of 'who next?' We are in
Iraq for a particular reason ... They [the Americans]
have got absolutely no plans to attack those two
countries."
Given that the Americans are yet to
achieve their desired victory in Iraq, they are
currently unable to expand their war against Iraq to any
country. Added to that, the opposition of their close
allies and the EU to such a plan has forced the US
government to deny it. Al-Hayat, a London-based Arabic
newspaper, quoted US Secretary of State Colin Powell on
March 5 as saying, "Nobody in the American
administration [has] talked about invading Iran or
Syria." He added, "It seems that there is a constant
desire by everybody to accuse us of invasion operations.
That didn't, and won't, take place."
Given the
circumstances under which Powell denied any new war
plan, his assurances do not convince anyone in the
Middle East. However, it is certain that, as an
immediate option, such a war seems unlikely, although
the repeated US accusations create grounds for its
future occurrence. The remarks of a former head of the
Israeli military intelligence, Amus Golad, during a
television interview of Israel's Channel One suggested
that a US war against Syria could be conceivable at some
point in the future. Accordingly, the US government
requested from Israel unspecified "urgent intelligence"
about Syria.
Dr Hooman Peimani works
as an independent consultant with international
organizations in Geneva and does research in
international relations.
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