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Chemical weapons program well
advanced
By David Isenberg
In
the aftermath of the successful United States invasion
of Iraq there have been several warnings by the Bush
administration to Syria regarding its weapons of mass
destruction (WMD), with some apparent justification.
Syria, however, does not have a nuclear weapons
program. Although the Israeli and US governments have
expressed concerns about Syrian nuclear weapons
aspirations, there is little convincing evidence in the
public realm of such an objective.
Syria signed
the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
in 1968 and ratified the document one year later. Its
30-kilowatt nuclear research reactor in Dayr al-Jajar,
provided by China, is under International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) safeguards. In 1998, the Syrian Atomic
Energy Commission began discussions with Russia about
expanding its nuclear infrastructure as prior
negotiations with Argentina and China proved
unsuccessful. In May 1999, Moscow and Damascus signed an
agreement in which the former will provide at least one
light water nuclear reactor, which will be subject to
IAEA safeguards. At this time, Syria does not have the
infrastructure nor the financial resources to pursue an
indigenous nuclear weapons program.
Three years
ago the US government started reporting in carefully
caveated language that Syria wants to do something in
the way of biological weapons (BW), ie, "It is highly
probable that Syria also is developing an offensive BW
capability" - but no evidence has been offered to
suggest that it has produced such biological weapons.
It is important to bear in mind that there is a
difference between developing and producing biological
weapons. According to an October 2000 report, "Syria and
Weapons of Mass Destruction" by Anthony Cordesman of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Syria
has developed biological weapons, although it is not
clear that it has attempted to produce or stockpile
them."
The only type of WMD that Syria
definitely does have is chemical weapons. According to
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Syria is
not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention
(CWC), and has an extensive and advanced chemical
weapons program. However, it is hardly the only country
in the region not to be a CWC signatory. Others include
Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and Libya. Israel has signed but
not ratified it.
Syrian possession of chemical
weapons is hardly new. The program goes back decades.
For years, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has
been reporting in its in semi-annual declarations on WMD
proliferation, mandated by Congress, about Syrian
chemical weapons and biological weapons research. The
latest declaration, released just last week and covering
the first half of 2002, reported, "Syria sought chemical
weapons-related precursors from various countries during
the reporting period. Damascus already held a stockpile
of the nerve agent sarin, but apparently is trying to
develop more toxic and persistent nerve agents. Syria
remained dependent on foreign sources for key elements
of its CW program, including precursor chemicals and key
production equipment. It is highly probable that Syria
also is continuing to develop an offensive BW
capability." According to US intelligence agencies,
Syria is working to develop the more deadly VX nerve
agent. Syria produces Scud ballistic missiles of various
ranges capable of carrying chemical warheads as well as
air-dropped bombs. According to the London Times, Syria
tested a Scud B missile fitted with a warhead carrying
VX in 1999. Other potential delivery vehicles include
fighter aircraft; helicopters; artillery; short-range,
anti-ship cruise missiles; short-range, air-launched
tactical missiles; and rockets.
Syria's chemical
weapons program dates back to the early 1970s when they
first acquired materials and expertise from Egypt prior
to the 1973 war against Israel. Since then, it is
believed that Syria has received assistance with their
chemical weapons program from Russia, India, China and
various West European countries. Syria's current
indigenous capabilities allow it to produce several
hundred tons of chemical weapons agents per year.
According to the Monterey Institute of International
Studies, "Open sources assert that there are at least
three Syrian facilities currently engaged in producing
CW, located near Damascus, Hama and Safira village."
Curiously, there is little mention of how much
chemical agent Syria actually has. There are scattered
references to an ability of being able to produce
hundreds of tons a year and an estimated CW stockpile of
hundreds of tons. But compared to other nations, notably
the United States and Russia, it is likely to be very
small. Consider that in 1985, Congress mandated that the
US destroy more than 98 percent of its chemical weapons
stockpile. Yet of the original total of 31,496 tons
there remains 24,144 tons to be destroyed.
As
for biological weapons, Syria has signed but not
ratified the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).
Despite being a signatory to the BWC, US intelligence
reports assert that Syria continues to "develop an
offensive biological weapons capability". Despite its
advanced biotechnical infrastructure, it is believed
that Syria would need significant foreign assistance to
manufacture large amounts of biological weapons.
Interestingly, a 1996 report "Proliferation:
Threat and Response" by the Office of the Secretary of
Defense did not mention Syria at all, although it did
mention Iran, Iraq and Libya. The 1997 edition of the
same report did mention Syria, and provided more detail
than the boilerplate rhetoric found in CIA reports. It
noted that "Syria also has vigorously pursued the
development of chemical weapons and ballistic missiles,
and to a lesser extent, biological weapons as a means to
counter what it perceives as Israel's superior
conventional forces and presumed possession of nuclear
weapons. Syria believes that its chemical and missile
forces act as deterrents against Israeli attacks
[then-president Hafez al] Assad apparently regards his
ability to inflict unacceptable damage on Israel through
the use of these weapons - and the Israeli awareness of
his willingness to do so under extreme circumstances -
as a safeguard of the utmost importance."
In
terms of chemical warfare
Syria has a
long-standing chemical warfare program, first developed
in the 1970s. Unlike Iran, Iraq and Libya, Syria has
never employed chemical agents in a conflict. Syria has
a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin and may be trying
to develop advanced nerve agents as well. In future
years, Syria will likely try to improve the
infrastructure for producing and storing chemical
agents. At this point, it probably has weaponized sarin
into aerial bombs and Scud missile warheads, which gives
Syria the capability to employ chemical agents against
targets in Israel.
Syria remains dependent on
foreign sources for key elements of its chemical warfare
program, including precursor chemicals and key
production equipment. Acquisition of such materials has
become more difficult in recent years as a result of
stricter export controls in many countries, which is
coordinated through the Australia Group.
Biological weapons
Syria is pursuing
the development of biological weapons. Syria probably
has an adequate biotechnical infrastructure to support a
small biological warfare program, although the Syrians
are not believed to have begun any major weaponization
or testing related to biological warfare. Without
significant foreign assistance, it is unlikely that
Syria could advance to the manufacture of significant
amounts of biological weapons for several years. Syria
has signed the BWC.
The 2001 edition of the
report by the Office of the Secretary of Defense noted
"the Syrians are not believed to have begun any major
effort to put biological agents into weapons".
Unlike Iraq, Syria has not used chemical weapons
against its own people. In fact, unlike Libya, which is
generally thought to have used chemical weapons in Chad,
Syria has never used chemical weapons. According to
Michael Moodie, former assistant director of the US Arms
Control and Disarmament Agency, "Syria's primary
security concern is its military balance with Israel,
and its CW capabilities must be seen in that context.
Their operational utility is likely to be considered
most seriously in the context of a conflict that
involves Syrian efforts to retake the Golan Heights. In
this case, CW may be seen as a force-multiplier for
Syrian forces on the offensive that would demoralize and
disorganize Israeli forces defending the territory and
disrupt Israeli plans to mobilize reserves and bring to
bear the power of its air force."
The one common
characteristic Syria shares with Iraq in regard to its
chemical weapons program is the help it received from
the West in establishing it. Former CIA director William
Webster told a Congressional panel in 1989 that the CIA
had determined foreign assistance was of "critical
importance in allowing Syria to develop its chemical
warfare capability. West European firms were
instrumental in supplying the required precursor
chemicals and equipment. Without the provision of these
key elements, Damascus would not have been able to
produce chemical weapons."
Syria's principle
suppliers of chemical and biological weapons production
technology were large chemical brokerage houses in
Holland, Switzerland, France, Austria and Germany,
including many of the same companies that were supplying
Iraq.
At least one German company, Schott
Glasswerke, has been subjected to an official inquiry
for its delivery of glass-lined reactor vessels, sarin
precursors and production equipment to a suspected
Syrian poison gas plant.
(©2003 Asia Times
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