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Baghdad's 'mayor' - a sign of things to
come
By Hooman Peimani
The
speedy US-led military success in Iraq aimed at a regime
change has not prepared the grounds for the US
government to embark on an equally easy and fast regime
creation in the way in which it had hoped. Being part of
a plan to reshape Iraq and its surrounding region to
serve the long-term interests of the United States, the
removal of the Iraqi regime from the political scene now
seems to have been the easiest step. As the post-Saddam
Hussein era is releasing long-suppressed political
forces with agendas different from those of Washington,
the establishment of a stable pro-American Iraqi regime
seems increasingly in the balance for the
US.
Creating a new regime is a difficult process,
even under the best circumstances, and evidence suggests
that the establishment of a docile Iraqi political
system is going to be an especially formidable
undertaking. Not only have many states outside the
"coalition of the willing" clearly expressed their
opposition to a US puppet regime in Baghdad, an
increasing number of Iraqis are demonstrating their
resentment toward such a project, in one form or
another. The message behind such expression of
resentment is very simple: although the Americans have
started their regime-creation process, many obstacles
will likely make its final outcome different from the
hoped-for one.
The "liberated" Iraqis now seem
to have opted to take full advantage of the "democracy"
created not by any deliberate effort, but as an
inevitable outcome of a power vacuum, a natural result
of the sudden fall of a dictatorship. In the absence of
meaningful efforts and truly democratic political
parties, such democracy characterized mainly by a
limited degree of free expression of political views
will likely last as long as the current anarchy and
lawlessness persist. In the meantime, the existing
political environment will encourage the dissatisfied
and disenchanted Iraqis to express their long-suppressed
political demands, including the creation of a
representative, accountable and democratic government.
Logically, this type of government should be
brought to power by the Iraqis themselves, who could
also decide at a later point to bring it down through
elections should it fail to meet their expectations. Of
course, the achievement of democracy must be a desirable
objective in a normal situation. However, securing the
US and the British national interests, which was the
main objective behind the regime-change process in Iraq,
makes the formation of a new regime accountable to the
Iraqis contrary to the US and British interests. The
latter requires a government in Baghdad responsible to
the Americans and the British.
Among Iraqis, the
Shi'ites, accounting for 60 percent of the population,
have so far been the most vocal emerging political
force. Having the bitter memory of a long period of
suppression by the minority Arab Sunnis during the
brutal regime of Saddam, they seem unwilling to accept
another long round of exclusion from the political
sphere and social and economic marginalization. They
have made this point in a variety of forms.
Last
week, the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in
Iraq (SAIRI), the major organized political group of the
Iraqi Shi'ites headquartered in Iran, refused to attend
a US "tent" conference tasked with the creation of a
pro-American government. A few thousand of its
supporters demonstrated in the nearby city of Nassiriya
in support of their party's policy. This was the first
reported mass political activity with a clear stated
message of opposition to any imposed US regime and to
the occupation of Iraq by the coalition forces.
Another example is the selection of Mohammed
Mohsen al-Zubaidi as the head of the interim local
government of Baghdad. Being an Iraqi dissident living
in exile in Iran, he was selected on his return to Iraq,
according to the Iranian news agency, IRNA. Quoting
al-Jazeera TV network, IRNA reported that "the interim
government of Baghdad will be commissioned with the task
of restoring security and stability in the Iraqi
capital, as well as seeing into the mending of the water
and electricity facilities of the city". According to
the report, al-Zubaidi will hold his position until free
elections can be held at an unspecified time.
Reportedly, his selection was the result of "heavy
consultations with prominent personalities residing in
Baghdad".
It is not yet clear whether the US
military has permitted or accepted the formation and the
operation of the interim government of Baghdad. Nor is
it clear whether it recognizes the selection of
al-Zubaidi. Notwithstanding these unknowns and the
predictable limited power of any institution functioning
under occupation, the sheer selection of an Iraqi
dissident returning from exile in Iran symbolically
indicated that a democratic political system would not
likely be in the best interest of the Americans. By
guaranteeing the Iraqis a right to choose whomever they
see fit for various positions, this system could, and
will likely, facilitate the ascension to power of those
who have no commitment to, if not being totally against,
the creation of a pro-American political system.
The political views of al-Zubaidi are not known.
His living in Iran does not necessarily mean he is
committed to promoting the Iranian government's ideology
and interests. Iran's geographical location as a
neighboring state on hostile terms with the Saddam
regime turned that country into a safe haven for a wide
range of Iraqi dissidents, secular and religious,
Shi'ite and Sunni, Arab and Kurd alike. A well-known
example is the case of two major Kurdish groups in
control of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdistan Democratic
Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have
representative offices in Iran and enjoy the Iranian
government's support, although they subscribe to secular
political views and have friendly ties with the United
States, a state hostile toward Iran.
However,
given al-Zubaidi's residence in Iran, one could presume
that he should have a non-hostile and possibly positive
view toward his former host. Added to the growing
popularity of the SAIRI in Iraq, his selection
demonstrates that, despite the US hope, the creation and
the survival of a desired puppet regime in Iraq will not
necessarily be a sure bet under the current "democratic"
circumstances.
Dr Hooman Peimani works
as an independent consultant with international
organizations in Geneva and does research in
international relations.
(©2003 Asia Times
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