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Power play in northern Iraq
By Hooman Peimani
As the
international community is focused on the rapid
unfolding of events in southern Iraq, a potentially
dangerous ethnic conflict is taking shape in the
northern part of the country. In particular, Kirkuk has
become the scene of ethnic rivalry between the Turkmens
and the Kurds who have claims to the city and its
adjacent oil-rich region. If the current trend
continues, armed and bloody ethnic war will likely
engulf Iraq's northern part with a potential for
regional expansion arising from Iran's and Turkey's
sensitivity to instability in their neighboring country.
The Turkmens minority of Iraq residing in the
greater Kirkuk area composing of Kirkuk and its large
oilfields is claiming that the Iraqi Kurds have resorted
to a violent campaign of intimidation against the
Turkmens. It also accuses the American troops stationed
in their region of turning a blind eye to killings and
"ethnic cleansing" of Turkmens by Kurdish armed groups.
The Iraqi Kurds have a territorial claim to
Kirkuk and its surrounding area, which, along with
another nearby city, Mosul, have been a target of
Arabization by the Iraqi central government over the
past few decades. As a result, many intimidated Iraqi
Kurds have had to leave their homes for safety in mainly
the nearby Kurdish region. Controlling Kirkuk will
enable the Kurds to address their financial problems
through exporting oil and to increase their
international significance as an oil exporter. By
creating a substantial amount of annual revenue and by
creating stakes for the oil importing nations in the
security of the Iraqi Kurdish region, Kirkuk could also
help them survive as an independent state should they
opt for that plan. While they deny having such
motivation, the Turks and the Turkmens suggest
otherwise.
The Turkmens view Kirkuk as their
homeland, which the Kurds seek to take from them by
force. They claim to constitute 65 percent of the
population of greater Kirkuk, estimated at 600,000, of
which the Arabs account for 25 percent and the Kurds and
Assyrians account for only 10 percent, an assertion
contested by the Kurds, who claim to be in majority.
According to a Turkmens group, the Iraqi Turkmen
Front (ITF), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and
the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) have launched a
campaign since the fall of the Iraqi regime to make the
Turkmen and Arabs leave Kirkuk. Allegedly, this is part
of their bid to incorporate that city and its nearby
oilfields in their self-ruled territory.
Despite
promises to the Americans and the Turks, PUK and KDP
forces entered Kirkuk in early April when the Iraqi
forces left the city then under heavy American attack.
Concerned about the encouraging impact of an independent
Iraqi Kurdistan on its own rebellious Kurdish minority,
Turkey interpreted the development as a step towards an
independent Iraqi Kurdish state. Ankara's warning of
taking military action against those forces made the
Americans ask the Kurds to leave the city. The American
troops have since controlled both Kirkuk and Mosul.
However, the ITF claims that the PUK and the KDP
forces have returned to those cities under the pretext
of "helping the Americans with security" as part of a
plan to incorporate them in their future independent
state. To that end, the ITF suggests, they harass and
intimidate the Turkmens and Arabs to force them to leave
Kirkuk and Mosul.
Last week, Ahmet Muratli, the
ITF representative in Turkey, accused the Kurdish forces
of "attacking" and "plundering" Kirkuk's Turkmens and of
their arrest of 11 Turkmens who fought against them. As
claimed also last week by another ITF representative,
Mohammed Kemal Yaycili, the Americans simply ignore the
return of the Kurdish forces and tolerate their attacks
on the Turkmens. According to him, the Turkmens have
experienced "a series of attacks as soon as the
[American] war [against Iraq] ended and the Kurds moved
in. The Americans [claimed that] they had asked the
Kurds to leave, but nothing happened. When we complained
to [the Americans] about the attack, nothing happened
either. The Americans favor the Kurds. They are working
hand in hand."
Along the same line, concerned
about a possible American-Kurdish design on Kirkuk, the
Turkish government has expressed anger at a statement
attributed to Jay Garner, the retired American general
charged with restoring basic services to Iraq, allegedly
described Kirkuk as a Kurdish city in his last week's
visit of the northern part of Iraq.
In addition
to attacks on individuals and looting properties,
Kirkuk's Arabs and Turkmens claim that Kurdish forces
have forced dozens of families, mainly Turkmen, to leave
their homes. A KDP representative, Mohammed Kamal Salah,
has reportedly confirmed the killings of an unspecified
number of Turkmens, which he attributed to the rival
PUK.
Moreover, Muratli has expressed concern
about the Kurdish control of Kirkuk and a Kurdish effort
to reclaim the city and also Mosul by sending back there
300,000 to 400,000 Kurds who were forced out of their
homes during the Saddam era. "We do not like this," said
Muratli. "I call on the world not to let the demographic
structure of the cities be disrupted," he added.
While the Turkmens accuse the Kurds of
atrocities and separatism, the Kurds also level charges
against the Turkmens. Accordingly, the Iraqi Turkmens
pursue their own pan-Turkist agenda backed by Ankara.
Allegedly, they follow a policy of unification with
neighboring Turkey, for which they have resorted to
terrorizing Kurds. There are claims of murders of Kurds
by Turkmens, including the killing of 15 Kurds
celebrating the "liberation" of Kirkuk. Also, the
Turkmens have been accused of looting Kurdish houses and
properties after the Kurdish forces left Kirkuk on
American demand.
Furthermore, Kurdish sources
claim that Turkey provides military assistance to the
Turkmens. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul denied such accusations, including a reported arrest
in northern Iraq by the American military of an
unspecified number of Turkish officers in civilian
clothes tasked with arming the Turkmens.
While
the full extent of anti-Turkmens activities is not
known, there is no question that Kirkuk's "liberation"
brought extensive looting and lawlessness to the city
affecting all the ethnic groups to a varying extent.
Like elsewhere in Iraq, these phenomena have since
continued in one form or another. As well, it is also
certain that fighting between armed rival ethnic forces
has resulted in the killing and wounding of Arabs, Kurds
and Turkmens. Reportedly, at least 11 people have been
killed and more than 50 have been injured since
mid-April.
The emergence of ethnic and
territorial disputes has created a suitable ground for
instability in the northern part of Iraq. In particular,
fighting between armed Kurdish and Turkmens groups with
the aim of defending their rights, settling scores or
seeking strategic objectives will likely push the
oil-rich region into bloody conflict, if the current
trend continues.
Should the Iraqi Kurds
incorporate Kirkuk and/or Mosul into their self-ruled
region, fear of the feasibility of creating an
independent Iraqi Kurdish state will likely push Iran
and Turkey into the conflict. Concern about the impact
of such scenario on their Kurdish minorities could push
Ankara and Tehran to follow the lead of Washington in
preemption, with a much stronger case to justify their
action.
Dr Hooman Peimani works as an
independent consultant with international organizations
in Geneva and does research in international
relations.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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