Saudi Arabia: The pendulum swings
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The road map for peace in the Middle East envisages as a final destination an independent Palestinian state. But along the way, it will also certainly call for the curtailment of organizations such as Hamas and the Islamic Jehad, which in turn will put pressure on the main sponsor of these groups, Saudi Arabia.

Over the past few months, sections of the Saudi media, some circles of the royal family and the clergy and intellectuals have speculated that after Iraq, the US is determined to bring Saudi Arabia to heel.

This will not entail military action, rather political pressure brought to bear in the wake of the new circumstances that have arisen in the region with the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. Such pressure would include increased action against al-Qaeda members or sympathizers - 15 of the 19 September 11 hijackers in the US attacks were identified as Saudi citizens, a review of the main pillars of power in Saudi society, as well as its relations with the world.

As a first step in the changing relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, the US announced last week that all of its troops stationed in the country, about 10,000 at present, apart from some training personnel, are to be withdrawn. The decision was confirmed by US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld during a joint news conference with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan. Both men stressed that there were no differences between their countries and that their cooperation would continue, but this was surely more for the benefit of the media than anything else.

Since the 1991 Gulf War, US troops have been in the country under the pretext of being a part of Operation Southern Watch, which enforced a no-fly zone over southern Iraq. But the US troops have become a potent symbol of Washington's role in the region, and many Saudis see them as proof of the kingdom's subservience to America.

Saudi Arabia is home to some of Islam's holiest sites, and the deployment of US forces there is seen by many - notably by Osama bin Laden - as an historic betrayal . This is one of the main reasons given by the Saudi-born Osama to justify violence against the US and its allies.

Political analysts believe that this development has deep significance. Washington has already compelled Syria to sever its links with the Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian organizations. But Saudi Arabia's case is different. Being the most holy land of Muslims around the world, it would be difficult for the US to deal with Saudi Arabia as it has with Syria - with threats of war.

Nevertheless, the US has already mounted pressure on Saudi Arabia to sever its financial ties with Hamas and other Palestinian groups. It is a demand which the US knows will be hard for the country to accept, let alone implement.

It is an open secret that apart from the state treasury, mosque collections, personal funds of Saudi princes and individual donations by rich Saudi sheiks are the main source of finance for the Palestinian intifada. Once the US troops leave Saudi Arabia, the religious segment of Saudi society can be expected to be more outspoken.

The Iraq war has already added fuel to the fire and fanned extremism in the country. As a result, Saudi authorities are now caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. If the Saudi government takes measures to appease the religious elements, it will have to balance these against measures to mollify the West. For instance, in a recent surprise move, Saudi authorities released Sheik Zuair. He was arrested in 1995 after he termed monarchy as anti-Islam and also rejected an official religious edict allowing peace with Israel. The release of Zuair is taken as a move aimed at appeasing religious circles.

At the same time, Saudi authorities are tipped to include a woman minister in the cabinet, responsible for women's education.

This juggling act between keeping the West and the inner religious circles happy cannot continue for ever, and a clash is almost inevitable.

For instance, any move to obstruct the movement of money in favor of the Palestinian intifada will cause a conflict between the royal family and religious figures, and even among members of the royal family, some of whom fought (albeit briefly) in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union in the 1980s. And among the population, according to Arab News, about 12,000 people from Saudi Arabia also fought in Afghanistan. Among these, there is strong support for the Palestinian intifada.

These factors apart, given the US victory in Iraq, where the majority Shi'ites were for decades suppressed by Saddam, Shi'ites in Saudi Arabia, who account for 30 percent of the population, can be expected to make their voice heard after a long period of forced silence as the government toys with political reforms.

This new voice will only create more political turbulence as Sunni hardliners among the ruling establishment will resist embracing Shi'ites too tightly. Unlike in the past, though, Shi'ites are not likely to give up easily.

In the past 50 years, Saudi Arabia has maintained a balance in its policies concerning its internal affairs and its external affairs, despite the fact that they were at odds - internal policies have been traditionalist and Islamic, while external ones have been liberal and pro-Western.

It will become ever more difficult for Saudi Arabia to maintain this balance in the future.

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