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Ayman al-Zawahiri and the cryptic
message
By B Raman
The
authenticity of the latest message purported to be of
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al-Jihad of Egypt, who is
number 2 to Osama bin Laden in al-Qaeda, which was
broadcast by the al-Jazeera television station of Qatar
on Wednesday, is yet to be established. According to
counter-terrorism experts familiar with the voice and
accent of al-Zawahiri, while the language and accent in
the tape resemble those of al-Zawahiri, the voice seems
to be of a person younger than al-Zawahiri, who is 51
years old.
This is the second such message said
to be from al-Zawahiri disseminated by al-Jazeera in
recent months, the earlier one send out October 6 last
year. For establishing the authenticity of such
messages, one generally depends on voice analysis
experts of the US intelligence community. One is not
certain how accurate their analysis and conclusions are.
In November last, experts of the US intelligence
community authenticated the voice of bin Laden in a
taped message disseminated by al-Jazeera, but a private
Swiss expert expressed his reservations about the
conclusions. Despite the frequent circulation of taped
messages purported to be those of bin Laden and
al-Zawahiri and their authentication by the US's Central
Intelligence Agency, there are some private experts who
find it difficult to accept definitively that the two
are alive.
Since the beginning of last year,
conflicting versions about the fate of al-Zawahiri have
been circulating in the madrassas (religious
schools) of Pakistan and Afghanistan. According to one
version, both he and his wife were killed in an US air
strike. According to another, only his wife was killed,
and he managed to escape to Pakistan, from where he
proceeded to Bangladesh, where he has been given
sanctuary by the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), which
has a strong presence and considerable local support in
Bangladesh. The HUJI is a member of bin Laden's
International Islamic Front (IIF). A third version held
that he had actually crossed over to Iran from
Afghanistan.
In Afghanistan and Pakistan there
is considerable admiration, love and veneration for bin
Laden. It is therefore unlikely that any Afghan or
Pakistani, particularly in the tribal belt of the
North-West Frontier Province, Balochistan and the
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas would ever betray
him and help the US to capture or kill him, whatever the
prize money offered by the US. One does not find similar
attachment to al-Zawahiri. If alive, he cannot feel as
secure and safe in Afghanistan or Pakistan as bin Laden.
It therefore stands to reason that he would try to go to
some other country, such as Bangladesh, Iran or a
country in Southeast Asia.
Unless the two are
conclusively established to be dead, counter-terrorism
agencies have to act on the presumption that they are
still alive and leading al-Qaeda, and take their
messages as authentic unless proved not to be so.
Certain conclusions follow from a careful study
of the latest al-Zawahiri broadcast. First, it is
exclusively Iraq-related.There is no reference to other
issues, which are emphasized by al-Qaeda, such as the
Palestine question and the presence of US troops in the
Muslim holy land of Saudi Arabia. Second, an important
objective of the message is to keep up the morale of the
Iraqi people by assuring them of the solidarity of their
co-religionists. Third, the message was recorded after
the US-UK occupation of Iraq, but before the recent
blasts at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Casablanca, Morocco.
The message says at the end, "The coming days
will bring to you the news that will heal your breasts,
God willing." This could be interpreted either as a
reference to the Riyadh and Casablanca blasts of which
he had advance knowledge, or as a warning of new
terrorist strikes being planned for the near future.
Four, the message criticizes the governments of Egypt,
Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Yemen for colluding
with the occupiers of Iraq, while ostensibly opposing
the war on Iraq. It is not clear why Saudi Arabia does
not figure in this list. Moreover, interestingly, there
is no call for a jihad against them.
Five, it
calls for attacks on the nationals and interests of the
US, the UK, Australia and Norway. It says: "O Muslims,
take matters firmly against the embassies of America,
England, Australia and Norway and their interests,
companies, and employees. Burn the ground under their
feet, as they should not enjoy your protection, safety,
or security. Expel those criminals out of your
countries. Do not allow the Americans, the British, the
Australians, the Norwegians and the other crusaders who
killed your brothers in Iraq to live in your countries,
enjoy their resources and wreak havoc on them."
Since the entire message appears to be a sequel
to the US-UK occupation of Iraq, the call for attacks on
the Americans, the British and the Australians is not a
surprise. Australia had sent a small contingent of its
armed forces to participate in the military action. So
had Denmark. Norway played no role in the war on Iraq,
but it had sent some units to join the US-led coalition
in the war against terrorism in Afghanistan.
Some observers have interpreted the reference to
Norway as possibly a mistake and said that al-Zawahiri
probably had Denmark in mind. Al-Zawahiri is reputed to
be an intelligent and well-informed person. It is
difficult to believe that he would have mistaken Norway
for Denmark. This indicates the possibility that the
message might have been recorded by someone else, not
well-informed and hence not able to distinguish between
Norway and Denmark, in the name of al-Zawahiri in order
to mobilize the remnants of al-Qaeda and the IIF for
action in retaliation for the occupation of Iraq.
In his October 6 message in the form of an
interview, which coincided with the anniversary of the
US-led coalition attack on the Taliban and al-Qaeda in
Afghanistan, al-Zawahiri said, "God willing, we will
continue targeting the keys of the American economy."
Four days after that tape was released, terrorists
bombed two Bali nightclubs, killing more than 180
people.
B Raman is Additional
Secretary (ret), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of
India, and presently director, Institute For Topical
Studies, Chennai; former member of the National Security
Advisory Board of the Government of India. E-Mail:
corde@vsnl.com. He was also head of the
counter-terrorism division of the Research &
Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency,
from 1988 to August, 1994.
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