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Sleeping forces stir in Iran
Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With most Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK - People's Mujahideen) members now released from detention in France, and the case against its still-held leader, Maryam Rajavi, seemingly weak, the furor raised by the surprise crackdown of the French authorities on the exiled Iranian opposition group is dying down.

Indeed, some people are already dismissing the action against the MEK - the military arm of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)- as a political ploy by French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy to score some points in his reported attempt to run for the premiership.

The MEK has in the past committed acts of terrorism inside Iran from sanctuaries provided by the former regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The MEK was driven out of Iran in 1986 in the wake of a vicious power struggle following the 1979 Islamic revolution. It is a designated foreign terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and Iran, among others, but the French for many years turned a blind eye to its presence on their soil. As an outlawed outfit, US intelligence agencies are banned from having any contact with it. However, following the ousting of Saddam, the US has established contact with MEK elements in Iraq and West Europe for possible use against the Teheran regime.

While the MEK may be fading from the news in France, it is set to bounce back in the political mainstream of Iran and it is sharpening its knives for a possible encounter with the Iranian fundamentalist clergy.

Sources in Pakistani counter-intelligence confirm that the MEK has seized on the recent pro-reform student demonstrations in Tehran to re-establish itself as a force within Iran. The official Iranian press even reported Tehran's chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi as saying that some of those arrested during the unrest in Tehran and other cities were members of the MEK. However, he did not say how many members of the outlawed group - which he described as "hypocrites" - had been apprehended.

The sources say that the Iranian authorities have now pinpointed the MEK, and massive raids have been conducted against them in the cities of Mashhad, Zahedan, Isphan, Kozistan and Tehran. This has resulted in a number of people trying to cross over the eastern border into Pakistan.

According to records at the Taftan border post, on last Saturday alone, 151 Iranians, most of them from Sistan province close to Pakistan (the hub of the MEK in the past) were caught as they tried to enter Pakistan without visas. Most of them were wanted by the Iranian government, some in connection with criminal activities.

Despite tough measures by Iranian forces, which pushed many of them into exile in Iraq and Europe, especially France, the MEK survived within Iran. Iraqi satellite television played a pivotal role during the time of Saddam as it regularly broadcast features and programs in Persian in support of the MEK into Iran. At the same time, the porous border between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan also helped the MEK to travel in and out of Iran to keep its contacts alive.

With the student demonstrators lacking natural national leaders and the movement yet to develop into a broader reform protest, Iran lacks an organized anti-fundamentalist force that could lead and translate widespread public dissatisfaction into a popular street protest.

It is this vacuum that the MEK, and its front organization, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, will endeavor to fill. The dilemma for the US is, does it keep the MEK on its terror list, or does it acknowledge the organization as the best available conduit to promote political change in Iran?

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Jun 26, 2003


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