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Alarm
bells over attack on British soldiers
By Charles Recknagel
PRAGUE - The details of how six British military policemen were killed in
southern Iraq on Tuesday remain sketchy and are likely to take some time to
resolve. What is known is that the six were killed while training Iraqi police
at Majar al-Kabir, 15 miles from the south-central city of Amarah. The
attackers reportedly used rocket-propelled grenades to overcome the military
policemen. Eight other British troops were wounded in later attacks on a
British patrol and a helicopter.
What is not known is who is behind the attacks, the first significant assaults
on British troops in what - until now - has been the calm south of the country.
Associated Press quotes a local policeman as saying that the British troops
were targeted by townspeople angry over civilian deaths during an earlier
demonstration in the town of Majar al-Kabir. Details of that demonstration are
still emerging, but correspondents say that there has been a growing problem in
the area with tribesmen who have refused to hand over their weapons. The
British military police have been actively trying to disarm them.
Other Western media have speculated the attackers may have been Saddam Hussein
loyalists, pro-Iranian Shi'ites, or smugglers. British officials so far have
only said that the deaths were the result of "hostile fire" and that a full
investigation is under way.
Analysts say that the biggest question around the attacks is whether they are
part of an increasingly organized armed resistance by Saddam loyalists or are
the work of a local group motivated by local grievances.
Michael Clarke of the Department of War Studies at King's College in London
says early evidence seems to point to a local incident, "There is some
circumstantial evidence for [a local incident] at the moment, that it was
driven by this particular incident where four demonstrators were shot early
yesterday [Monday] morning and that caused an immediate problem in which two of
the British MPs were shot. The other four took refuge in the police station and
they were, after a two-hour gun battle, finally overcome."
Clarke says that it is not yet clear whether the other British patrol and
helicopter attacked were on their way to help the military policemen or whether
those were separate incidents. If the deaths were a local incident, they could
be viewed as a one-time exception to what until now has been a peaceful British
occupation of Shi'ite southern Iraq. Washington and London consider the
Shi'ites, who compose some 60 percent of the Iraqi population, as having
supported the coalition's toppling of Saddam, who long oppressed their
community.
Until now, the British have felt comfortable enough in southern Iraq to wear
soft headgear - rather than heavy helmets - while on patrol. By contrast, US
troops - who are shot at almost daily in areas of central Iraq that were once
strongholds of support for the old regime - continue to wear full combat gear.
But analysts say that if the incident was not a one-time local conflict, it
could be a sign of more worrisome things to come. Clarke does not rule out that
the attack could have been carried out by elements of the Shi'ite community
becoming increasingly restive with foreign occupation. He also does not rule
out that it could be a sign that Saddam loyalists - active in the central areas
- are now establishing a guerrilla presence in the south.
Other analysts also believe the attack was most likely locally motivated.
Philip Mitchell, a military expert at the London-based International Institute
for Strategic Studies, says the attack may have been carried out by smugglers
eager to maintain a state of lawlessness that has characterized the Amarah area
since the end of the war.
"I think based on the events of previous weeks, all the reports from that area
have been that the locals have been at relative peace with the Brits, with the
troops in the area," Mitchell said. "So my gut reaction is that this is a
one-off. Although it seems to indicate some sort of organization and planning,
to me, I think, having read some of the reports, it stems more out of local
criminal activity than out of anti-Brit, pro-Saddam supporters being involved."
The Amarah area lies along one of the main smuggling routes for heroin from
Afghanistan through Iran to the Arab Gulf states and Europe. Criminals and
anti-Saddam guerrillas used local marshlands as cover for their activities,
prompting Baghdad to deliberately drain much of the area in the 1990s.
A former guerrilla, Abu Hattem, now controls much of the Amarah area, and the
British allow his Hizbollah group to maintain checkpoints on local roads. Abu
Hattem's group itself is not suspected of any role in the attack, but the
presence of such private forces underlines the general lawlessness of the
region.
As the British now seek to learn who carried out the attacks - and whether they
now face irregular or well-organized foes - London is weighing whether to
increase its troop deployment in southern Iraq.
Clarke says increasing the deployment may be necessary because the 16,000
British forces in southern Iraq are stretched over a large, highly populated
area: "British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon made an announcement literally this
morning [Wednesday] that they would give active consideration to beefing up the
numbers, and I'm sure they are going to have to. They had planned to withdraw
from their 16,000 [troops] there now down to 10,000 by the end of the year, and
I don't think that now is going to be feasible. They are just too thinly
stretched. And the idea of sending in more troops is now an active
possibility."
Clarke calls Britain's presence in southern Iraq a form of "risky peacekeeping"
due to the contingent's small size. By contrast, London has deployed anywhere
from 12,000 to 22,000 soldiers to maintain security in Northern Ireland, a
fraction of the size of southern Iraq.
US officials say that there is no organized armed resistance in Iraq and have
blamed attacks on coalition troops on loose bands of Saddam loyalists. General
Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and America's top military
leader, said that some 130,000 US forces have been brought home from the Iraq
region since the end of the war. He said that some 146,000 American troops
remain to patrol the US-occupied areas of the country.
Poland is tasked with deploying a new multinational peacekeeping force of up to
7,500 troops in Iraq by the beginning of September. The Polish force will
patrol south-central Iraq between Baghdad and the port of al-Basrah, while US
forces will continue to patrol the north-central area and British forces the
south.
Copyright (c) 2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201
Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
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