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Iraqi resistance takes on a new
face
By Syed
Saleem Shahzad
SULAIMANIYA, northern Iraq - With
Saddam Hussein's sons Qusay and Uday killed in the
northern city of Mosul on Tuesday, the future of the
resistance movement in Iraq takes on added significance,
with indications that the development could lead to a
new direction in the struggle against US forces in the
country.
The sons, who had a reward of US$15
million each on their heads, were killed during a raid
by American troops on a house in Mosul. "Acting on a tip
from an Iraqi informant, US forces mounted a six-hour
operation in which they surrounded and then stormed a
palatial villa in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul,"
Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez was reported as
saying in Baghdad. Four coalition soldiers were reported
wounded and two other Iraqis were killed in the raid,
but Saddam was not among them. The house belonged to a
cousin of his, a tribal leader in the region.
According to a well-placed source in Sulaimaniya
- which is just a three-hour drive from Mosul - who
coordinates between US forces in Kurdistan and Kurdish
peshmerga (armed forces), on April 9, Qusay and
Uday travelled to Mosul, which is near the border with
Syria, where they had planned to seek refuge. However,
Syrian authorities refused them entry, although they did
allow in Saddam's wife and two daughters.
Since
then, the sons had apparently been shuttling between
Tikrit and Samarah to the north of Baghdad, and Mosul to
the northwest. This is now called the "triangle of
resistance" against US troops. The brothers, according
to the source, were rallying resistance in this region,
targeting tribes in the Sunni towns which Saddam had
cultivated. Qusay had been chief of the military
committee of the Ba'ath Party, which gave him intimate
knowledge of all of the branches of the Ba'ath Party in
the region. Uday, on the other hand, had close ties with
the paramilitary Fedayeen Saddam (Saddam's "men of
sacrifice), which he founded in 1995 as body of young
soldiers recruited from regions loyal to Saddam and
answerable directly to the presidential palace.
The brothers are believed to have recently moved
to Mosul to broaden resistance and reorganize it. They
stayed with an uncle, but his father is the one believed
to have contacted the US forces, which culminated in
Tuesday's raid.
Away from the chaos and anarchy
of other parts of Iraq, in relatively peaceful
Sulaimaniya, located in lush mountains, experts are
assessing the possible consequences of the death of the
brothers on the four facets of resistance in the
country. The groups are:
Different groups from among the ranks of the Ba'ath
Party who have formed small pockets. They are well
coordinated and well equipped, with rocket-propelled
grenades and small missile launchers. They are spread
all over the north of Iraq (aka the Arabian belt) and
target US convoys and installations in particular.
Small pockets of Arab tribes who have been left out
of the current interim setup and who see no hope of ever
being represented. They are not well organized and
launch random attacks on US forces.
A few thousand Arabs who arrived in Iraq before the
US-led invasion who have joined hands with different
resistance groups. They include Afghans.
Independent groups of gangsters who have taken
advantage of the lawless situation in the country to
establish fiefdoms, especially in the regions of Khals
and Kirkuk in the north. They also randomly attack US
troops.
Those in the first group - Ba'ath Party
stalwarts - would clearly have been jolted by the deaths
of their two main coordinators. This leaves only Saddam
himself - wherever he might be - as the only real
binding force for the remnants of the party, and it
would be difficult for him to single-handedly manipulate
events without the help of his two trusted lieutenants.
Coincidentally (or not?), an audio tape purportedly from
Saddam urged Iraqis on Wednesday to fight US forces,
saying that the war was not over. "Our will will not
surrender and won't be defeated. The battle is not over
yet," the tape, addressing the Iraqi armed forces, said.
It was aired by Dubai-based al-Arabiya television, and
dated July 20, two days before the death of his sons.
Nevertheless, this element of the Iraqi resistance faces
possible disintegration, or at least a serious loss in
capabilities.
The fact that Saddam was not with
his sons at their death is not surprising. Throughout
his bloody dictatorship he adopted a separate strategy
for himself, including his own hideouts, and he was a
past master at covering his trail and keeping his
whereabouts a secret. Thus, even though a number of
former colleagues close to him have been arrested by US
authorities, they have not been able to provide
information on his hideouts.
The resistance of
the Arab tribes in the northern belt, meanwhile, is
gradually changing shape. Virtually every day there is a
declaration from a new Islamic group calling for jihad
against US forces. These groups are, in fact, drawn from
the tribes, who are attempting to give their struggle an
ideological touch and broaden their influence. Their
position, nevertheless, is in a state of flux, and while
they are a force at present, they would need to become
more organized in the future.
The foreign Arab
fighters are essentially a volunteer force totally
dependent on their local allies for support, and for
them it will likely be a case of united they stand,
divided they fall once the going gets a bit tougher.
Similarly, if the US forces fail to develop a
strategy to set up a strong indigenous political system,
the gangsters and looters are likely to elevate
themselves as warlords - much like in Afghanistan - and
they may develop links to militant groups fighting
against the US for reasons of expediency.
In
Kurdish northern Iraq, where people felt the full brunt
of Saddam's ruthless state killing machine, news of the
death of his two sons will be greeted with some glee.
But the people will not be celebrating too hard
just yet as, of the four streams of resistance, the
emerging Islamic groups in the Arabian belt still have
the potential to derail not only the peace process in
other parts of the country, but also in currently calm
Kurdish parts of Iraq.
(Copyright 2003 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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