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Terror coiled for the next
strike
By Mark Berniker
It's not a question of whether there will be
another major terrorist incident, but rather when, where
and how much human tragedy will be exacted the next
time.
Unfortunately, the chaos being perpetuated
by militant extremists is working. If their intention is
to complicate bids by the United States, the United
Nations and others to bring stability to Iraq,
Afghanistan and elsewhere, then their actions are
instilling a constant sense of fear in governments and
public alike.
With the news of more terrorist
decimation at the UN mission in Baghdad to a bus full of
civilians in Jerusalem, another day, another week,
another serious act of deadly terrorism. The wave of
killings is taking on a more coordinated feel, with the
intention of destabilizing not only Iraqi
reconstruction, and the Middle East peace process, but
to further rattle a shaken world waiting for the next
horrific event to occur.
But while the US and
its partners in the "war on terrorism" are going to
great lengths to tell the public that they are doing
everything to crack down on terrorists around the world,
concerns about the next attack do not appear to be
waning. The threat looms, and the battle against terror
appears unending, and perhaps without solution.
While intelligence officials around the world
are constantly trying to track down individuals and
groups it believes are planning future attacks, there
are still serious gaps. Major captures of extremely
dangerous ringleaders, like Hambali, the brains behind
the Jemaah Islamiya in Southeast Asia, are encouraging,
but there is no sense that imprisoning individuals is
doing much to stem the spread of underlying, rampant
Islamic extremism.
On August 18, the
London-based World Markets Research Center (WMRC) came
out with its Global Terrorism Index exposing
vulnerabilities in a number of countries, despite the
best efforts of law enforcement in certain nations to
stem the tide of terrorism.
WMRC points to the
Philippines, Pakistan, Israel, Colombia and the US as
the most likely sites of new terrorist acts. The group
goes on to say that terrorism has become a serious
threat to multinational corporations, as the recent
bombing of the JW Marriott hotel in Jakarta underscores.
And the extremely explosive car bomb attack appears to
be the vehicle of choice for Islamic extremists.
The WMRC in its calculation of the risks of
terrorism says that the "motivation of terrorists" is
the most significant factor in its criteria. The
terrorism index report says that another September
11-style attack in the United States is "highly likely".
"The fact that there have not been any major
attacks on US soil since September 11, [2001], is by no
means an indication that the United States is seen as
any less of a target by terrorist organizations," the
report says. "Because of its leading roles in the wars
on Iraq, Afghanistan and terror, the US remains the
prime target for attacks by al-Qaeda or its auxiliaries,
both within the US itself and, crucially, against US
interests abroad.
"Networks of militant Islamist
groups are less extensive in the US than they are in
Western Europe, but US-led military action in
Afghanistan and Iraq has exacerbated anti-US sentiment,"
the report says.
There is the question of who is
going to be the next target, and then there is the other
issue of internal security, special police and
undercover counterintelligence measures. Britain is said
to have "the strongest counter-terrorism capabilities in
the world".
But not everyone's anti-terrorism
activities are being championed. A report out of
Australia is critical of the government's intelligence
agencies. The Australian Defense Association, an
independent watchdog of the government's defense
policies said that the prime minister has insufficiently
qualified staff, hiring too many journalists and not
enough intelligence professionals.
However, the
group's criticism flies in the face of WMRC's terrorism
index, which found that Australia should be praised for
readiness against an attack of terrorism. Australia is
ranked 38th most at-risk out of the 186 countries in the
index.
The report goes on to say that Colombia
is the country "most at risk" followed by Israel,
Pakistan and the US, with Colombia and Israel as the
only countries deemed at "extreme risk".
On
August 20, the Pakistani government said that it is
putting together a new anti-terrorism force with the
assistance of the US. Pakistan has been criticized for
not doing enough to crack down on the remnants of
al-Qaeda and the Taliban, who fled from Afghanistan into
Pakistan. The presence of militant extremists along the
Pakistani border are a major concern of Afghanistan and
the US, which are attempting to provide a modicum of
stability to yet another very dangerous corner of the
world.
At the end of the day, chaos is winning,
stability and reconstruction are being stymied by a
series of terrorist incidents. While intelligence
officials have yet to determine if the recent spate of
attacks is coordinated, their coincidence is troubling,
not giving anyone a sense of safe haven.
Mark Berniker is a freelance
journalist who writes frequently for Asia Times
Online.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online
Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information
on our sales and syndication policies.)
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