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Iran: Damned if they do, damned if they
don't
By Safa Haeri
PARIS - A
resolution passed on September 12 by the 35-member Board
of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) has produced intense debate in Iran that could
determine the fate of the country's theocratic system.
The stark choice facing the Iranian ruling authorities
is to consider whether to turn the country into a North
Korea of the Middle East, or to open up more to the
West.
The IAEA resolution, approved without vote
taking, has angered the ruling Iranian ayatollahs as it
gives them until the end of October to sign "immediately
and unconditionally" an additional protocol to the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on the one hand, and stop
"at once and immediately" all its uranium enriching
programs - effectively prove that it is not building an
atomic weapon.
Tehran immediately described the
decision, formulated by Japan, Australia and Canada, as
being "politically motivated" and taken under pressures
from the United States and its major European allies,
such as Britain, France and Germany.
"Either
way, signing the protocol or rejecting it, it would lead
the [Iranian] regime to the same dead-end road," Dr
Qasem Sho'leh Sa'di, a prominent politician, lawyer and
scholar fighting for a secular regime in Iran, told The
Asia Times Online.
"If they bow to the
resolution, it means losing national sovereignty and
independence, as international experts can come to Iran
any time they decide, inspect whichever site and place
they suspect of nuclear activities, even the bedrooms of
the leaders, as they did in Iraq under Saddam [Hussein].
If Tehran rejects the demands [by the IAEA and the
international community], the case would be passed on to
the United Nations Security Council, and they would face
possible economic and other sanctions," Sa'di explained.
As Iranian decision-makers appear unable to
decide how to respond to their dilemma, and seriously
concerned about their survival, one solution that has
emerged is the "North Koreaziation" of Iran, seasoned
Iranian observers say.
"With Iran encircled on
all of its borders by the United States on the one hand
and isolated internationally on the other, the general
idea is to make the Islamic Republic the North Korea of
the Middle East," one respected Tehran analyst told The
Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity.
The
conservative-controlled press that usually reflects the
views of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the orthodox leader of
the country, was the first to bring up the idea of
adopting Pyongyang methods in dealing with the
conditions put to Iran by the IAEA, reminding that in a
rebuff to the IAEA, the Stalinist regime had expelled
all the Vienna-based nuclear watchdog's experts last
December, got out of the NPT, and revived its nuclear
programs.
"What is wrong with considering this
treaty on nuclear energy and pulling out of it? North
Korea withdrew. Many countries have never entered it,"
asked Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the secretary of the
powerful Guardians Council, during last Friday prayers,
noting that such inspections would be "an extra
humiliation" for the Islamic Republic and the Muslim
Iranian people.
"The additional protocol means
these gentlemen [IAEA inspectors] can visit any place
without any restrictions, one day the parliament
building, the next day the supreme leader's office,
under the false suspicion of nuclear weapons," he told
worshippers bused to the prayer ground.
The
remarks by the hardline cleric, who is close to the
leader of the country, heightened alarm among Western
diplomats that the conservatives who control the regime
will take Iran in the direction taken by Pyongyang.
In a new commentary published on September 20 by
the hardline evening daily Keyhan, Hoseyn Shari'atmadari
- a high-ranking intelligence officer specializing in
interrogating intellectual and political dissidents -
said that accepting the protocol not only signify that
the authorities have "bowed to a humiliating injunction,
but also paving the ground for the collapse of the
sacred regime of the Islamic Republic and placing the
noble Iranian Muslim people under the yoke of savage
Americans".
According to Shari'atmadari,
appointed by Khamenei as editor of the paper, if the
authorities fail in withdrawing from the NPT and
"deceiving" the United States and its allies in Europe
and in the region, the Iranian people would impose it on
them".
Reminding that Iran is facing an
"international consensus", Sho'leh Sa'di, who spent 40
days in prison last August on charges of questioning
Khamenei's religious credentials, as well as his
policies, both domestic and foreign - said that the
ruling conservatives would welcome a hostile environment
and a severe international crisis in order to "mobilize"
their forces.
"Having in mind the bitter
experience of the last city council elections and afraid
to see the desertion of voters repeated at the
forthcoming majlis [parliament] elections [due on
February 21, 2004], an exercise that would diminish
further the legitimacy of the regime, an international
showdown and a foreign enemy, both realities, not only
can help the conservatives to prepare a mobilization,
but also give them the time factor that they need above
everything," he pointed out.
Defying the
international community, Tehran on Monday demonstrated
its newly-developed 1,700 kilometer range Shahab-3
missiles, enveloped in slogans saying that it would
"reach the heart of the enemy", which means Israel. At
the same time, it announced that it would downgrade its
cooperation with the NPT to the "minimum required" by
international obligations.
Also, Iranian
military commanders from both the Revolutionary Guards
and the regular army and hardline personalities made
offensive speeches against the United States and Israel,
warning that in case they attack the Islamic Republic,
not only would Iran reserve a "deadly and merciless"
blow to the Jewish state, it would also carry the war
well inside America with suicide operations.
Iranian officials insist sternly that the
country's nuclear projects, like the 1,000 megawatt,
US$800 million electrical plant under construction in
the Persian Gulf port of Bushehr, with the help of
Russia, are for civilian purposes and "swear by god"
that they are not interested in making a nuclear bomb, a
weapon that is prohibited by Islam, they point out,
without explaining how the religion could ban an arm
that was not yet discovered when such rulings were made.
The rhetoric, therefore, loses its sting for the
simple reason that it is utterly contradictory. For
instance, on September 15, Iranian President Mohammad
Khatami reiterated his country's "determination" to
acquire nuclear technology aimed at strengthening Iran's
military power, and at the same time he repeated that
Iran was not after the atomic bomb.
"We don't
want nuclear arms, no, no, no, this is against our
policy and our faith, but we want to be strong and being
strong means to have technology, and nuclear technology
is the most advanced of all technologies, one that we
would master thanks to the intelligence and the will of
our children," the independent Iranian Students News
Agency ISNA quoted the embattled president as saying.
In an interview with the state-run,
leader-controlled television, Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's
ambassador at the IAEA, also confirmed information that
Iran had started enriching uranium, a process needed for
making atomic weapons.
On Wednesday, a US State
Department official told US and Israeli lawmakers that
Iran's nuclear program is a threat to the Middle East,
as well as the US. Paula DeSutter, assistant secretary
of state for verification and compliance, told the
US-Israel Joint Parliamentary Committee that Iran likely
would develop missiles capable of reaching the US or
Western Europe.
However, US and Israeli analysts
believe that Iran is at least three years away from a
nuclear weapon, even with significant foreign
assistance.
The hermit regime of North Korea,
alongside neighboring Pakistan - the first and only
Muslim nation that has developed atomic power and which
hardliners believe Iran should emulate - are Iran's
major source of technology for building ballistic
missiles and nuclear weapons, according to Iranian and
Western sources.
"What the Iranian rulers need
above all is to gain enough time to explode their first
nuclear devise," Sho'leh Sa'di believes. "The regime
needs time to accelerate its nuclear technology. If, for
instance, it could proceed to an atomic explosion, then
it has to be accepted as a nuclear power, as was the
case of Pakistan. Whether one likes it or not, the world
would have no other choice but to accept the fait
accompli," he explained.
With the next American
presidential elections approaching, the time factor
would help the Iranians since it is accepted that the US
is politically paralyzed during the year that an
electoral campaign lasts.
On the domestic front,
Iran has drastically increased its crackdown on
dissidents, both political and intellectuals, and
particularly on journalists and students, as well as
youngsters, adding more "moral and vice" patrols to the
streets, arresting young boys and girls for not
respecting strict Islamic behavior, travelers coming
from Tehran told Asia Times Online.
(Copyright
2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved.
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