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Nukes,
subs, and (not so) black
ops
By Marc Erikson
In its
October 11-12 weekend editions, the Los Angeles Times -
with much fanfare - carried a 16-month old story: that
Israel had modified three diesel submarines acquired
from Germany and US-supplied Harpoon-type cruise
missiles to give it a sea-based nuclear attack force.
The story was duly picked up by the German magazine Der
Spiegel, which amplified it with its own deep-throat
intelligence information that two months ago the Israeli
foreign intelligence service Mossad had been tasked to
work out plans to "simultaneously and completely"
destroy Iranian nuclear installations in a grander-scale
repeat of the 1981 destruction of the Iraqi Osirak
nuclear reactor.
To round things out, on October
14, the LA Times carried an editorial saying that the
Israeli nuclear-capable subs program constitutes "a
dangerous step", "is a hostile move aimed at
intimidating Israel's neighbors," but "won't deter
countries such as Iran from developing their own
weapons; instead it will only encourage them to move
ahead."
So, what's going on here? Another black
eye for Israel, found out again pursuing aggressive arms
escalation? Reckless endangerment of the Middle East
peace process (what peace process, exactly)? Not hardly.
But I'll get to that. First, some relevant publishing
history and facts on the Israeli nuclear-armed subs.
On June 15, 2002, the Washington Post published
a page 1 article by Walter Pincus titled "Israel Has
Sub-Based Atomic Arms Capability." It read in part:
"Israel has acquired three diesel submarines that it is
arming with newly designed cruise missiles capable of
carrying nuclear warheads, according to former Pentagon
and State Department officials, potentially giving
Israel a triad of land, sea and air-based nuclear
weapons for the first time. The US Navy monitored
Israeli testing of a new cruise missile from a submarine
two years ago off Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean,
according to former Pentagon officials. A book published
this week by the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace reported that Israel was attempting to arm its
diesel submarines with nuclear cruise missiles.
'Probably the most important nuclear-related development
in Israel is the formation of its sea-based nuclear
arm', wrote Joseph Cirincione, director of the Carnegie
Endowment's nonproliferation project and a former staff
member of the House Armed Services Committee who served
as chief author of the book."
What's new then in
the LA Times and Der Spiegel reports? Pretty much
exactly nothing - except for the intriguing verbatim (!)
Spiegel quote from an Ariel Sharon cabinet order to the
Mossad. Congratulations, colleagues! That's quite an
astonishing feat in investigative journalism.
Many of Israel's land-based deterrent
capabilities are within reach of short-range missiles
that could be fired from Lebanon and Syria. All are
within reach of medium-range missiles from Iran. Most of
Israel's military installations are under threat from
potential terrorist sabotage. Hence, that Israel should
have sought and - when the opportunity arose - acquired
a more secure sea-based deterrent force (Dolphin-class
subs and nuclear-capable cruise missiles) is hardly
surprising. Details on this force, its purpose and
capabilities, are readily available on dozens of
websites, eg, the Israeli site
http://www.dolphin.org.il/dolphins/ or the site of the Federation of American
Scientists (FAS).
The Israeli site on
the Dolphin class (based on the most advanced German
Type 212 boat) states among other things, "While the
subs are likely more important as a nuclear deterrent to
land-based attacks, the Dolphin submarines offer Israel
superior naval capabilities to its neighbors as well."
The FAS states, "It is generally agreed that these
[three Dolphin class] submarines are outfitted with six
533-millimeter torpedo tubes suitable for the 21-inch
torpedoes that are normally used on most submarines ...
Some reports suggest that the submarines have a total of
10 torpedo tubes - six 533-millimeter and four
650-millimeter ... The four larger 25.5 inch diameter
torpedo tubes could be used to launch a long-range
nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile
(SLCM). According to some reports the submarines may be
capable of carrying nuclear-armed Popeye turbo cruise
missiles, with a goal of deterring an enemy from trying
to take out its [Israel's] nuclear weapons with a
surprise attack. Under a system of rotation, two of the
vessels would remain at sea: one in the Red Sea and
Persian Gulf, the other in the Mediterranean. A third
would remain on standby."
Whether Israeli 200
kilogram nuclear warheads containing 6 kilograms of
plutonium are mounted on longer-range Israeli-developed
Popeyes (up to 1,500 kilometers) or shorter-range,
advanced/modified US Harpoon SLAM (stand-off land
attack) missiles is not known.
On January 15,
1991 the Gulf War broke out and the next day Israel
experienced for the first time long distance ballistic
missile attacks on its civilian population. The main
threat was the possibility that Iraqi chemical warheads
developed with support of German companies would be
used. As a result, the German government offered
humanitarian and military support. An Israeli delegation
was sent to Germany and late at night on January 30
then-chancellor Helmut Kohl approved an assistance
package that included two Dolphin-class submarines. The
two, named "Dolphin" and "Leviathan", with a
construction price of $230 million each, were donated by
Germany and delivered in 1999. A third, "T'kuma"
(Revival), was jointly financed and delivered in 2000.
Two additional Dolphins have been ordered by Israel
recently.
The military logic of Israel's
acquisition of a sea-based deterrent is straightforward.
As compelling was the logic of the 1981 pre-emptive
destruction of Iraq's French-built Osirak nuclear
reactor before it could produce nuclear-weapons
material. Now Der Spiegel has "revealed" the existence
of an Israeli cabinet order for the drawing up of plans
for the destruction of Iranian nuclear installations.
Reportedly, the order was given two months ago. This is
laughable. Israel has known for years that Iran is
working on nuclear programs with potential weapons
applications. Uranium enrichment to weapons-grade
quality is in advanced stages. Contingency plans for the
destruction of relevant sites should international
pressure fail to dissuade Iran from weapons-applications
work will have been made long ago and kept properly
updated.
So, why all the fuss at this point? I
suspect Aluf Benn of Israel's Haaretz newspaper has the
right take on that. A week ago, he wrote, "Heading off
Iran's attempt to attain nuclear capability is one of
the Mossad's main missions, and the foreign media is one
of the most important instruments utilized in this
effort. Mossad agents supply foreign journalists with
information about Iran's nuclear efforts; such foreign
reports, the Mossad expects, support the international
campaign to thwart Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Sometimes, the foreign media are used to deliver
deterrence-oriented messages about Israel's capabilities
and intentions."
So much for the investigative
prowess of our LA Times and Der Spiegel colleagues.
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