| |
Iran displays diplomacy at its finest
By Erich Marquardt
Tehran's
decision to comply with the International Atomic Energy
Agency's (IAEA) demand that Iran temporarily cease its
uranium enrichment program, while also agreeing to allow
for more stringent inspections of its nuclear
facilities, was an effort to proceed with its nuclear
research program without giving its two rivals, the
United States and Israel, political ammunition to use
against the Islamic republic.
The main argument
that Washington has been able to use in repeated
attempts to get the United Nations Security Council to
punish Iran for allegedly pursuing nuclear arms was the
country's uranium enrichment program. By agreeing to
temporarily halt this program, Tehran has weakened
Washington's argument.
Enriching uranium is a
necessary process to provide fuel to a nuclear reactor
in order to create nuclear energy. Enriching uranium can
also be used, however, to provide nuclear material
necessary for building nuclear weapons. Since Iran has
the legal right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes, finding a way to prevent the country from
enriching uranium has proved difficult. Therefore,
Tehran's rival states would like to see it only import
enriched uranium, rather than enrich it independently.
This would allow greater transparency of Iran's
nuclear energy program. Tehran's decision on Tuesday to
suspend its uranium enrichment program shows that Iran
is willing to accept this state of affairs, albeit it is
not clear for how long.
Tehran chose to accept
the new restrictions on its nuclear research program
because its decision does not limit its opportunity to
develop nuclear weapons in the future. By complying with
the IAEA, Iran will make it harder for the Bush
administration to use the UN to institute sanctions on
the Iranian state. If the Bush administration cannot
acquire the political clout to place international
sanctions on the Iranian government, it will work in the
interests of Russia, the European Union, India, and
other states that have diplomatic and economic relations
with Tehran.
Russia, for example, is currently
building a nuclear reactor in the city of Bushehr in
southern Iran. Moscow also has provided massive supplies
of military equipment to Tehran, such as MiG-29 fighter
aircraft, Su-24 fighter bombers, T-72 tanks, and Kilo
class attack submarines. Moscow is also pursuing the
prospect of building more nuclear reactors and
facilities in Iran, a development that would help Russia
earn much-needed financial capital. Finally, Russia does
not want Iran to be weakened by the United States, since
Washington is already encroaching on Russia's southern
border in Central Asia. If Washington were able to
orchestrate a change in government in Tehran - one that
complies with American interests rather than Russian
interests - it would cause a further deterioration in
Moscow's security environment along its southern border.
Furthermore, it would allow Washington to have increased
influence in the oil and gas rich area of the Caspian
Sea - an outcome that Russia would like to avoid.
The EU has important diplomatic and economic
ties with Tehran; it is Iran's biggest trading partner,
especially the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. This
growing relationship explains why the UK, France and
Germany sent their foreign ministers to help negotiate
Iran's decision to comply with the IAEA. The three EU
countries also promised Tehran that if it complied with
IAEA demands, the EU would be willing to assist Iran's
nuclear research program by giving it greater access to
modern technology and supplies. This would allow Iran to
buy nuclear technology that has been kept out of its
grasp due to 20 years of sanctions.
India, too,
has important ties with Iran. India's strategic concerns
over its rival state, Pakistan, are shared in part by
Iran; therefore, instability in Iran could weaken
India's foreign policy leverage when dealing with the
leadership in Islamabad. New Delhi and Tehran have also
been collaborating with Russia's state-owned gas
company, Gazprom, to build a pipeline that would export
gas from Iran to India.
Therefore, the
leadership in Tehran has support from important states
in its dealings with the Bush administration. By
complying with the IAEA demands, Tehran will be able to
secure greater assistance from trade partners in the
form of modern technology. This assistance would help
Iran better understand the methods involved in all
aspects of nuclear technology, including the methods of
creating nuclear weapons. Outside support would also
help Tehran build the necessary infrastructure to
increase the country's economic and military stability -
a path that must be followed due to the reality of its
main rival state occupying Iraq to the west and
Afghanistan to the east.
If Iran is able to
convince the IAEA that it is not developing nuclear
weapons, the country could be allowed once again to
enrich its own uranium for its nuclear reactors. By
controlling every aspect of its nuclear research
program, Iran would be able to quickly transform its
peaceful energy program into a military program. The
country would be able to rapidly develop nuclear weapons
should it feel threatened by an outside country.
For instance, the comments made by Hassan
Rowhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security
Council, underscore the possibility of Iran becoming a
nuclear-armed state. Rowhani said that Iran could begin
enriching uranium at any time, warning that the
suspension of its enrichment program "could last for one
day or one year; it depends on us. As long as Iran
thinks that this suspension is beneficial for us, it
will continue."
Rowhani also explained that
Iran's suspension of its uranium enrichment program was
only temporary, saying, "We believe that stopping
enriching uranium is totally unacceptable and we think
nobody agrees with [doing] that in Iran."
In
conclusion, Tehran's decision to comply with the IAEA
will allow it to maintain its nuclear research program.
It also takes away political ammunition that could be
used by the US and Israel in attempts to weaken the
country through UN sanctions. Iran will now be able to
increase political and economic relations with the
European Union and Russia, likely to the detriment of US
interests. Finally, if Tehran becomes threatened by US
influence on its eastern and western borders, it could
quickly weaponize its nuclear energy program and become
a nuclear-armed state, thus helping to insulate it from
outside threats.
Published with permission of
the Power and Interest News Report,
an analysis-based publication that seeks to provide
insight into various conflicts, regions and points of
interest around the globe. All comments should be
directed to content@pinr.com
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
