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The 'rat' and the information
war
By Ehsan Ahrari
The Bush
administration did not waste any time before releasing
pictures of the captured Saddam Hussein - "the mother of
all captures", as it was billed in some Arab quarters -
to the global media. Those pictures spoke volumes about
the fall of the former tyrant. He looked disheveled,
haggard, and dirty. He had previously been widely
reported to be obsessive about his personal 
appearance
and hygiene, and insisted that all visitors undergo a
thorough scrubbing before he granted them an audience.
As Major General Ray Odierno, commander of the
US's 4th Infantry Division, stated, "He was just caught
like a rat." He added, "It is rather ironic that he was
in a hole in the ground across the river from these
great palaces he built where he robbed all the money
from the Iraqi people." Another low point of those
pictures was an American military doctor examining
Saddam’s hair for possible lice. Those shots were
neither filmed nor aired unthinkingly. Rather, they were
very much part of a clever information campaign that is
being conducted against the Iraqi resistance forces, and
also with a view to influencing the hearts and minds of
the Iraqis.
In Arab culture such scenes are
humiliating, especially when they show a former leader.
For Saddam’s supporters, those pictures were
demoralizing and heartbreaking. However, for millions of
Iraqis who were anxiously awaiting his capture, those
pictures were a source of catharsis and enormous joy.
That joy was obvious through several scenes of
jubilation, celebratory gunfire, and dancing in
different parts of Iraq. For the US forces and for the
Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), the pictures were
definitely uplifting and harbinger for moments - yes,
only moments - of relief.
One of the questions
of the hour is whether Saddam's capture will lead to the
end of violence and defeat of the anti-occupation
forces. No public official, whether in Iraq or in
Washington, was optimistic about that, and rightly so.
They no doubt remembered that Saddam's sons, Uday and
Qusay, were reported to be coordinating most, if not
all, attacks on the coalition forces. After the pair
were killed in a heavy exchange of firepower last July,
speculation was that there would be a deescalation of
the insurgency. Nothing of the sort happened.
Another important question is what psychological
effect the capture of Saddam is likely to have on the
nature of activities aimed at building a legitimate
government, and on the pace of violence in Iraq. The
Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) is likely to chug
along in its current activities. However, according to
best estimates, Saddam's capture is not likely to have
much effect on the pace of violence. The Ba'athist
elements of these groups are likely to continue their
own battle against any emergence of order and serenity
in Iraq, since such a state of affair promises them no
future whatsoever. More to the point, they know that
they will be hunted down, and their chances of being
captured only increase with the improving security
situation in Iraq.
What about the Islamist
groups? For them, the capture of Saddam is a non-event.
They never had any use for him. He was a pan-Arabist and
secularist, precepts alien to the Islamist frame of
reference. The Islamists envision their battle against
the United States and the IGC as part of the Jihad that
is being waged in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
Indonesia, and, in the coming years, in Central Asia.
The Islamists' belief in the correctness of their cause
remains utterly impervious to any information campaign
related to the capture of Saddam that is being carried
out in Iraq and the Arab world at large. Their battle
with the United States will continue.
For the
United States, this should be a propitious moment to
revisit the entire status of its occupation in order to
minimize, if not eliminate entirely, all exclusionary
policies. Toward this end it must immediately renew its
dialogue with France, Germany, and Russia to seek
avenues for their participation in rebuilding Iraq.
President George W Bush's choice of selecting former
secretary of state James Baker for renegotiation of
Iraqi debt is a superb one; however, the focus of his
diplomacy should be broadened to include engaging those
countries already in Iraq. Another way of achieving the
same results is to create a forum of NATO plus Russia
that is focused on the specifics of their participation
in peacekeeping and nation-building in Iraq.
Secondly, this is also a moment for enhancing
the United Nations presence in Iraq. There can be no
better time to graciously create a widely acceptable,
legitimate rule in the country, now that the US stock in
the international arena regarding Iraq has gone up as a
result of the capture of the dictator. Including the UN
would indeed be a major step toward capturing the hearts
and minds of the global community.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an
Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic
analyst.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
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