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Kurds start to rock the
boat
By Charles Recknagel
PRAGUE - Tensions over Iraqi Kurd demands for
substantial autonomy within a future sovereign Iraq are
causing unrest in northern Iraq and growing unease among
Iraq's neighbors. In the latest of a string of violent
incidents in the northern city of Kirkuk, unidentified
attackers fired a rocket at the headquarters of one of
the two main Kurdish factions, the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK).
The attack comes after some
2,000 Arabs and Turkish-speaking Turkomans last week
surrounded the PUK's head office to protest Kurdish
calls for autonomy and demand that Kirkuk remain under
the control of the central government in Baghdad.
At the time, one of the protest leaders, Ali
Abdullah of the Democratic Turkoman Unity Party, said
the demonstration was to reject any move to turn Iraq
into a federal state with autonomous entities. "We have
gathered today for this demonstration to proclaim that
the Iraqi city of Kirkuk is a city of peace that belongs
to all ethnic groups and to say 'no' to suggestions of
federalism and to say 'yes' to the unity and integrity
of Iraq," Abdullah said.
Several bursts of
gunfire during the protest left at least five people
dead and debate is still raging in the city over who
fired first - Kurdish police or protesters. Another
person was later killed as rival groups clashed in the
city center.
Emotions have run high in Kirkuk
ever since the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in
April brought a dramatic change in its status.
After decades of a Saddam-era "Arabization"
program that forced out much of its Kurdish population
and replaced it with Arab settlers from elsewhere in the
country, Kirkuk is now firmly under Kurdish control. The
city has a Kurdish mayor brought to power when Kurdish
fighters swept in on the heels of Saddam's retreating
army, and former Kurdish refugees are returning home.
Many Arabs and Turkomans accuse the Kurds of grabbing
power, while the Kurds say that they are regaining lost
rights.
Now, tensions could be ratcheted even
higher as Kurdish representatives on the Iraqi Governing
Council (IGC) press for adopting a federal system in
which Kurdish-controlled areas would have a large degree
of authority over security, taxes and revenues from
local oil fields. They hope to see that authority framed
within the "transitional law" the IGC is drafting to
serve as a temporary constitution paving the way for a
sovereign Iraqi government to take power at the end of
June.
The Kurdish initiative is politically
sensitive not only because it affects the fate of Kirkuk
and the rich Kirkuk oil fields. It also could force
Iraqi leaders to begin deciding now the future shape of
the Iraqi state: whether it will be divided into ethnic
and religious-based regions or be tightly knit under a
central government.
That speeds up a debate
which, before the March/April war, saw Iraqi exiles
agree Iraq should have a federal system but since then
has seen many in Iraq and in neighboring states worry
the formula could lead to the country's disintegration.
Mike Amitay of the Washington Kurdish Institute
in Washington DC, says there are several reasons Kurdish
leaders have decided to press their autonomy demands
now, rather than wait until Iraq forms a sovereign
government and begins working on a permanent
constitution.
One reason is Kurdish unhappiness
with the economic and political upheavals in much of the
country. Amitay says many Kurds feel they need autonomy
to protect the relative stability and economic
prosperity they have enjoyed since breaking away from
Saddam-controlled Iraq in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War.
"I think the Kurds have determined at this point
that they need to essentially function or promote their
political agenda separate from the wider agenda - that
is quite confused - being considered for the whole of
Iraq," Amitay said.
Amitay also says that the
Kurds feel they must act now, while the Coalition
Provisional Authority still retains political control
over the country. He says some Kurdish leaders feel they
can win backing from the US because of Washington's
interest in rapidly and smoothly turning over power and
because of the aid the Kurdish factions have given US
forces.
"They see the timetable [for rapidly
handing over power] as being motivated only by the [US]
administration's concerns about Iraq in the headlines in
November [2004, when US presidential elections will be
held]. So, they feel that they have an advantage in that
the coalition owes them, perhaps, for their alliance,
for not having to station combat troops in their area,
for maintaining their own affairs, for running the
different sectors of their society in a fairly painless
fashion," Amitay said.
At the same time, the
Kurds are determined to ensure they retain a future
share of Iraq's oil income. Prior to the UN-administered
oil-for-food program, which allocated 13 percent of
Iraq's oil earnings to the Kurdish areas, the Kurds had
to depend on Baghdad's goodwill for any share of
revenues.
Amitay says the Kurds see control of
the Kirkuk oil fields as the best guarantee they will
get the money they need to keep their economy going.
"The bottom line is the distribution of Kirkuk's oil
resources," he said. "In order for the [Kurdish parties]
to continue running their administrations and
maintaining their sort of patronage systems, there needs
to be a guaranteed stream of revenue. And we have seen
in the past when that stream dries up, when hostile
neighbors cut the flow of goods and materials into
Kurdistan, the parties get edgy and even begin to fight
each other for the crumbs."
So far, there is no
sign that either the Iraqi Governing Council or
Washington will resolve the complicated issue of the
Kurds' autonomy demands quickly.
"The New York
Times" on Tuesday quoted a senior legal adviser to the
chairman of the IGC committee drafting the "transitional
law" as saying the board is trying to reconcile the
differences between its own draft and that proposed by
the Kurds.
Feisal Istrabadi said: "There is
substantial agreement that the status quo in the Kurdish
region would be maintained during the transitional
period." But he said no one is ready to accept building
a federal Iraq made up of states defined by ethnic or
religious identities. He gave no details of any
discussion on the future of Kirkuk or its oil fields.
Washington has said that it will not step into
the debate but will leave the matter for the Iraqis to
decide. US State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said:
"We have always supported and will continue to support
Iraq's political unity and territorial integrity. The
Kurds are members of the Governing Council, and have
themselves expressed commitment to a unified Iraq. The
structure of a future Iraqi state, including federalist
elements, is a constitutional issue for Iraq to decide."
As tensions over the autonomy demands grow,
several neighboring states are watching with increasing
unease. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned Iraq
against creating any Kurdish or other ethnic entity. He
said in an interview with CNN Turk television: "This is
a red line and should be [seen as such] by all countries
in the region, especially Iraq's neighbors."
Turkey, too, has repeatedly warned in the past
against substantial autonomy for Iraqi Kurdistan,
calling it a step toward independence. Both Syria and
Turkey reportedly fear that creation of a Kurdish state
in northern Iraq would inspire their own Kurdish
minorities to seek greater freedoms. Ankara recently
quashed a 15-year rebellion seeking Kurdish-self rule in
southern Turkey that claimed more than 36,000 lives.
Copyright (c) 2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut
Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
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