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US concocts a recipe for
unrest
By K Gajendra Singh
Hamid al-Kifai, a spokesman for the United
States-appointed Iraqi Governing Council, in rejecting
on January 12 a call made by Shi'ite cleric Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani that general elections be held
ahead of a power transfer to Iraqis, has opened the way
for even more uncertainty and unrest following the
decision to create a Kurdish federal area in the
country.
Al-Kifai said that Iraq's war-shattered
infrastructure was in no shape to hold elections. "It is
not possible to conduct a proper census ... with the
country functioning as it is at the moment. We need to
improve a lot of other functions in the country before
we can do this," al-Kifai said.
At the same
time, he affirmed that the timetable and principles laid
down in the November 15 agreement last year between the
US's Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq and
the council would stand. "At the moment we are
proceeding with the agreement we have reached with the
coalition and hopefully the time line we have agreed to
will be adhered to."
On January 11, al-Sistani,
probably the most influential leader among Shi'ites, who
form nearly 60 percent of Iraq's population, reiterated
that members of an interim assembly ought to be elected
through direct elections, thus creating another hurdle
in US plans in handing over power to a provisional Iraqi
government by June 30.
A statement issued in his
name after a meeting with members of the governing
council, led by Adnan Pachachi, its rotating president
for January, left little room for compromise. It asked
that elections be held "within the next months with an
acceptable level of transparency and credibility". He
added that an interim constitution being drafted by the
council and any agreement for US-led forces to remain in
the country must be approved only by directly elected
representatives.
All efforts to change
al-Sistani's mind failed. He said the US plan, in his
opinion, would not create a legitimate government and
might lead to increased political tensions: "If formed
through a mechanism that does not have adequate
legitimacy, the national provisional assembly and the
government [appointed by it] will not be able to carry
out the tasks demanded from them and to adhere to the
timetable set for the transitional period."
The
plans for an interim assembly for Iraq are outlined in
the agreement reached between the CPA and the governing
council on November 15, calling for caucus-style
elections for the interim assembly in Iraq's 18
provinces by May 31. That assembly would then appoint an
interim government.
Kurds stake their
claim
In another major development, on the
weekend the governing council agreed to a federal
structure to enshrine Kurdish self-rule in three
northern provinces of Iraq. This will be included in a
"fundamental law" that will precede national elections
in late 2005, said council member Dara Nur al-Din. The
fate of three more provinces claimed by the Kurds will
be decided at a later date.
"In the fundamental
law, Kurdistan will have the same legal status as it has
now," added al-Din, referring to the region that has
enjoyed virtual autonomy since the end of the 1991 Gulf
War. The decision came after the 25-member council's
five Kurdish members refused to budge on the issue
during recent heated discussions.
"Some
governing council members asked that details about
federalism be delayed until after elections and the
writing of a constitution, but we the Kurds refused it
and we said everything must be worked out now," al-Din,
himself a Kurd, said. "When the constitution is written
and elections are held, we will not agree to less than
what is in the fundamental law, and we may ask for
more."
The current announcement will apply only
to the provinces of Sulaimaniyah, Dohuk and Arbil. The
fate of highly contested Diyala, Nineveh and oil-rich
Tamim provinces, where Saddam Hussein expelled Kurds in
large numbers, will be delayed until 2005, and possibly
2006, after a national census is conducted. But al-Din
made it clear that the Kurds will not settle for less
than Tamim's main city, Kirkuk, as the future capital of
a Kurdish autonomous zone.
CPA leader L Paul
Bremer has consulted Kurdish leaders three times over
the past week about the Kurds' territorial ambitions.
Speaking to Qatari television station alJazeera, Bremer
said that Iraqi federalism was a key to its future. "We
have said all along that we believe a federal structure
is appropriate for Iraq. Iraqi federalism should not be
ethnically based. However, it should take into
consideration the special Kurdish status of the past 12
years. I think in six to eight weeks we shall find a
solution," Bremer said.
Serious Kurdish
jockeying for power started when the CPA reached an
agreement with the council on November 15 that the US
will hand over power by the end of June this year. The
Kurdish representatives on the council then submitted a
bill for a federal Iraq before transfer of authority
without waiting for a constitutional convention promised
for 2005.
The Kurds proposed the expansion of
Kurdish autonomy from the three northern provinces -
which the Kurdish factions have more or less governed
since 1991 under protection from the Saddam regime,
reinforced by US and UK warplanes - to further include
the oil-rich province of Tamim around Kirkuk and parts
of the ethnically mixed provinces of Nineveh and Diyala.
According to a 1957 census, these areas have a
Kurdish majority. But since then their ethnic makeup has
been changed by the policy of "Arabization" carried out
by Saddam. This was backed by all five Kurdish members
of the governing council, including the heads of the two
Kurdish factions, Jalal Talabani of the Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan (PUK) and Massoud Barzani of the the
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).
A Kurdish
source clarified: "We presented this text because we
want to enter into the details of the question of
federalism now and don't want to put off the subject
until after the new constitution is adopted."
Mohsen Abdul Hamid, a prominent member of the
council, told al-Hayat, a London-based newspaper, that
federalism would strengthen and not weaken the unity of
Iraq. He said the Kurds are agreed on Baghdad remaining
"the capital of a federal Iraq". However, Iraq's interim
foreign minister, Hoshiar Zebari, a Kurd, told reporters
on January 4 that it was not yet decided what kind of
regime Iraq would have, whether royal, republican or
federal.
Opposition to Kurdish plan
Arabs, Turkmens, Sunnis and Shi'ites, meanwhile,
have expressed vociferous opposition to a federal system
for Kurdish Iraq. Arabs form about 75 percent of the
population, Kurds 15 to 20 percent, Turkmens, Assyrian
and others around 5 percent. The major languages are
Arabic, Kurdish, Turkmen and Assyrian.
Despite
being in the minority, Sunnis held the reigns of power
for many years. This was a legacy from the Ottomans, who
were Sunnis. When their empire collapsed and Arabs took
over Iraq with British help, power was vested in Sunni
hands, where it remained until the demise of the Saddam
regime.
Such a situation is not unusual in the
region. In Syria, the 12 percent Shi'ite Alawites - in a
majority Sunni population - have constituted the ruling
elite since 1963.
Iraqi Shi'ites have vehemently
rejected the Kurdish-proposed federalism of Iraq. A
representative of the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Sheikh Sadrudin al-Qabanji,
told Iraqis at January 2 prayers: "The first and
foremost priority should be given to our main goal - the
independence of Iraq. Our Kurdish brothers should bear
this in mind." He said that the legitimate rights of the
Kurds could be tackled later "after reaching this end"
and "all Iraqis [now] should act in concert to maintain
the territorial integrity of Iraq". "I beg you Kurdish
brothers to work for the common welfare and do not think
narrow mindedly," he added.
Anti-occupation
Shi'ite leader Moqtada al-Sadr said the US appears to
have forgotten the fact that Iraq is a unified country
and federalism would have grave consequences for all
Iraqis, reported Agence France Presse. At the January 2
Friday sermons he said that all Iraqis belonged to one
country; both the north and the south were indispensable
for each other - Arabs are Iraqis and Kurds are Iraqis.
Pachachi of the governing council, a former
foreign minister, while underlining the commitment for a
federal Iraq, advised Kurdish leaders to show patience
and not push the issue. He told Iraqi TV: "We have
accepted federalism in principle, but there are
different forms of federalism in the world and I cannot
tell you at the moment what the final form will be in
Iraq."
Pachachi, a Sunni, is committed in
principle to a federal framework that would most
probably grant the Kurds autonomy in the north and
similar liberties to the Shi'ite majority in the south.
But Pachachi stressed that the governing council was not
an elected body or the government. The proposal should
be tabled by a constitutional convention chosen through
elections scheduled for March 2005, he said.
"The relationship between the Kurdish region and
the central government will be defined by the
constitution which will be drafted by a freely elected
body. Since the founding of Iraq, all the world has
recognized Kurds constitute a separate ethnic group,
which led to the granting of special status for the
Kurdish region," Pachachi said in a televised address.
Other council members said that this was his personal
view.
Anti-federal demonstrations and
violence in Kirkuk
Those opposed to the Kurdish
bid to dominate the ethnically split oil rich region of
Kirkuk (which produces nearly 40 percent of Iraq's oil),
organized demonstrations leading to ethnic tensions and
violence. Ethnic tension became acute in Kirkuk in early
January after a Kurd was shot dead by armed Arabs and
police killed two Arabs in a subsequent shootout.
According to the Turkish Daily News, Ankara,
Kurdish peshmergas (para-militaries) opened fire
on Arab and Turkmen protesters demanding that Kirkuk
remain under the administration of a central Iraqi
government, killing an estimated five protestors. Police
confirmed that Kurdish gunmen opened fire as protesters
tried to converge on the PUK office and that two
protesters were killed. The local hospital said that it
had treated 26 wounded people.
Most of Iraq's
Turkmens live in Kirkuk, whose million-plus population
is composed of the three ethnic groups - Arab, Turkmen
and Kurds, in almost equal numbers. The predominantly
Muslim Turkmen are an ethnic group with close cultural
and linguistic ties to Anatolia in Turkey.
Leaders of the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) have
called for Turkey to send troops to restore order, but
Kurds are adamantly opposed to the deployment of Turkish
troops in the area, though the CPA has requested that
Ankara contribute troops to bring security to Iraq.
A statement from the ITF said that the Turkmens
could never accept "claims by one of the groups that has
lived as brothers for years for more rights than others
and attempts to oppress others". The ITF said that
Turkmens and Arabs had never asserted during the mass
demonstration that Kirkuk was an Arab or Turkmen city
"although Arabs and Turkmens form the majority in
Kirkuk. They claimed that Kirkuk was an Iraqi city. But
groups opposing us showed their real aims by their
aggressive attitude. It is clear that they were neither
in favor of a democratic Iraq nor of a federal state
based on the equality of ethnic groups."
Arab
countries opposed to Kurdish proposal
It appears
that neighboring Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan
and Syria support the position that Kirkuk is Iraqi.
Syrian President Bashar Assad, who made the
first-ever visit on January 5 by a Syrian president to
Turkey, until recently an enemy, was reported in the
Turkish press as saying that "I also draw a red line at
a Kurdish state in northern Iraq. We are not only
against a Kurdish state, but all similar proposals that
target Iraq's territorial integrity".
Egypt has
also shown support for the Turkmens. ITF president
Abdullah Abdurrahman visited Cairo recently, where he
met with Arab League secretary general Amr Musa and
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmet Mahir. Besides
supporting Iraq's unitary status, Musa and Mahir
emphatically stressed their opposition to "one ethnic
group" establishing hegemony "over the others" in
northern Iraq. It was said that the ITF could even open
an office in Cairo, similar to the existing offices of
the KDP and the PUK.
Egypt reportedly promised
to provide the Turkmens the necessary military training
to form an effective part of a new Iraqi army. Some of
them are already being trained in Jordan.
Turkish reaction
According to Turkish
daily Hurriyet, at the time of the capture of Saddam,
when US Secretary of State Colin Powell telephoned
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, he told Powell:
"I'd like to draw your attention especially to Kirkuk.
Interference in the city's demographic structure could
lead to very dangerous consequences." He further added:
"If the necessary sensitivity isn't shown during these
preparations, a new Arab revenge could rise in the
Middle East."
According to Hurriyet, Gul also
told Powell: "Barzani and Talabani are busy shifting
Kurds from nearby small towns to Kirkuk so as to
increase the Kurdish population of that city so it will
be included in the Kurdish federal region."
Gul,
in a diplomatic way, conveyed to his US counterpart that
"the Kurdish groups are striving to change the city's
population makeup in their own favor. If you just sit
and watch a city which is home to many ethnic groups
being artificially populated by Kurds, then the Arab
world will be against the US before even Turkey. Before
Ankara, the Arabs would react against this fait
accompli."
In this sense, it is important that
Gul used the term "a new Arab revenge". This was meant
to remind Powell of the Arab world's protests against
the US policy of protecting Israel's interests in the
Middle East, and that similar protests could arise in
northern Iraq, said Hurriyet.
In a similar
statement on December 25 last year, the Turkish Foreign
Ministry said that if Kurdish groups were sponsored by
the US, then the Arabs who make up the majority of the
Iraqi population would not approve of it. Since the
beginning of the Iraq war, Turkey has conveyed similar
messages on northern Iraq, during the visits of Gul and
Foreign Ministry under secretary Ugur Ziyal and others
to their US counterparts. Not to sideline the Sunnis and
not to disturb the ethnic structure of Kirkuk was a
warning that a federation based on ethnic divisions
would lead to dangerous situations that could make the
Middle East unstable.
"The US failed to listen
to these warnings for nearly nine months, but now seems
to have changed its tune. Let's see whether Washington
would be able to put the genie back into the bottle,"
concluded Hurriyet.
Iran not too pleased
During Gul's January 9 visit to Tehran, Iranian
President Mohammad Khatami gave the message that "the
disturbance of Iraqi territorial integrity would be
worrying and it would not be good for regional
countries".
Khatami warned that a dissolution
process in Iraq on the basis of ethnic and religious
sects would cause divisions. Stressing that the region
was at a critical stage, Khatami said that Turkey played
a very correct and constructive role regarding the Iraqi
issue, as shown by Ankara's consulting with Iraq's
neighbors.
Khatami also commented on the
coalition's view that problems in Iraq had been solved
with Saddam's capture, saying that the situation had not
changed and that the US and Britain should withdraw
their troops from Iraq. He also called for the formation
of a government that would receive the support of all
Iraqi people.
Conclusions
The United
States-led coalition has found it much easier to enter
Iraq than to pacify it, restore the rule of law, repair
war damages and introduce democracy, before finally
leaving.
With the security situation in Iraq
failing to improve, the death toll among occupying
soldiers mounting and in an election year, the US
suddenly declared that it would hand over power in Iraq
- but to whom? In the governing council, only the
Kurdish members, although squabbling among themselves,
represent their people. Most others have few roots or
acceptability among the Iraqi masses, such as Pentagon
favorite Ahmed Chalabi, who left Iraq 30 years ago and
who is still wanted in Jordan on embezzlement charges.
The shadow of Turkey also hangs over Iraq. The
government of the Justice and Development Party, which
has Islamic roots, controls two-thirds of the seats in
parliament, and is the first pro-Islamic government in
the republic's history.
The majority of the
population, which is 99 percent Muslim, like Muslims
elsewhere, were opposed to the invasion of Iraq. They
also distrust US policies in the region and elsewhere.
And the AKP is slowly following a pro-east policy by
improving relations with its Arab and Muslim neighbors
to the east and in Central Asia.
As mentioned,
it is extremely wary of too much independence for Kurds
in Iraq for fear that this will incite its own Kurds to
renewed calls for some form of independence. Ankara
recently quashed a 15-year rebellion seeking
Kurdish-self rule in southern Turkey that claimed more
than 36,000 lives.
Another unknown factor is
Israel. It has been reported that Tel Aviv is providing
money and even making some indirect investments in
Kurdish Iraq. It is even suggested that Israel would be
quite happy, perhaps along with the US, to have an
independent Kurdish state in north Iraq as this would
break up Iraq, its nearest major Arab enemy to the east.
Along with the US, it could even have a defense
agreement with the Kurds, who are of Irano-Aryan
origins, and are not Arabs. Before the Islamic
revolution in Iran in 1979, Israel had a very
flourishing relationship with the Shah of Iran.
Iraqi Kurds have had the experience of running a
government, however unsatisfactorily, in their
autonomous zone since 1991. They have been very faithful
to the US cause, and remain the only reliable group in
Iraq (as far as the US is concerned). Only in north Iraq
can the US military relax.
But the Kurds expect
to go beyond mere unstable autonomy. They could make a
viable oil-based state, albeit a landlocked one, and
would be happy to sign a defense treaty.
Some US
policy makers have floated the idea of a three-state
solution for Iraq. But they must take into account the
angry gray wolf of Turkey up north. Also, throughout
history, whenever the Kurds have tried for independence,
Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, where Kurds reside, have
closed ranks.
These are all some of the great
imponderables of history which of course unfold in time.
If Western-style democracy - one-man, one-vote -
were introduced in Iraq, as the Shi'ites want, they
would be expected to gain power as the majority.
But take the example of Pakistan in 1971. The
Bengalis of East Pakistan won a clear majority in
parliamentary elections, but what followed was massacre
and genocide and the breakup of Pakistan with the
creation of Bangladesh. Take, too, the collapse of
European Yugoslavia and the religious and ethnic
cleansing and the wars that resulted, not only between
Kosovo and Serbia, but also in Croatia and Serbia, both
Christian states.
The Kurdish initiative is
politically sensitive, then, not only because it affects
the fate of Kirkuk and the rich Kirkuk oil fields. It
also could force Iraqi leaders to begin deciding now the
future shape of the Iraqi state: whether it will be
divided into ethnic and religious-based regions or be
tightly knit under a central government.
And
Iraq's neighbors are watching very closely.
K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador
(retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August
1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as
ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is
currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic
Studies. Email Gajendrak@hotmail.com
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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