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Scramble to prepare for
polls
By David Enders
BAGHDAD
- More than 100,000 demonstrators from all over central
Iraq marched near Mustansiriya University on Monday in
support of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's continued
demands for countrywide elections.
"Yes, yes for
elections!" the crowd shouted. Though the demonstration
appeared to be made up mostly of Shi'ites, there were
groups of Turkomen, Christians, Sunni Muslims and Kurds
as well.
The official statement being handed out
by demonstrators was addressed to United Nations
Secretary General Kofi Annan, the Iraqi Governing
Council (GC), troops in Iraq and L Paul Bremer, the head
of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Baghdad.
Annan, Bremer and GC members met in New York on Monday
to discuss possible ways - including UN involvement - of
making the plan more acceptable for a majority of
Iraqis. "Because of the bad situation in Iraq the Iraqi
people suffer daily. We ask you for a solution. Consider
it the right of the Iraqi people to make their
decisions," the statement read.
Whether direct
elections are even a possibility in occupied Iraq has
become a point of contention as the CPA and the GC
continue with the transfer of power plan that was agreed
to on November 15. The plan calls for regional caucuses
in June to elect a committee to write Iraq's
constitution and to select a second interim governing
body to see to the carrying out of elections at the end
of 2005.
"It is important that we postpone
elections because we have to have a proper census," said
GC spokesman Hamid al-Kafaey, speaking after about
30,000 protestors came out in support of Sistani in
Basra last week. Sistani has repeatedly said that the
ration cards used under the oil for food program would
work effectively as a census. Asked if he saw an
implicit threat of violence in Sistani's continued
protests, Khafaey sidestepped the question. "What I hear
from Ayatollah al-Sistani is a vision for a democratic
Iraq," he said.
The CPA has said that
implementing the changeover is the responsibility of the
GC, but many still see the real power as belonging to
the CPA, which holds veto power over GC decisions. "It
is not up to the Governing Council, it is up to the
Americans," said Womidh Nidhal, who has taught political
science at Baghdad University for 28 years. "The GC is
divided on the issue. Those members who are sure of
themselves aren't worried about general elections.
Others fear that if elections were direct they would be
defeated - Mr [Ahmed] Chalabi, for instance, would not
win more than two or three seats, this would destroy his
ambitions to run the country," Nidhal said, referring to
one of the expatriate Iraqis hand-picked by Bremer to
sit on the GC.
"There are people who are
convinced the Islamists might take over," Nidhal said.
"But it is the Americans who fear if it were a free and
direct election that groups that are not pro-American
might gain legitimacy, which amounts to the loss of
American intentions in this country. Although I am a
secular person, I'm not scared of an Islamic victory
because you don't have a majority of Islamists, like
Iran. You would need an alliance of Shi'ite Islamists,
Sunni Islamists and Kurdish Islamists - that is
unlikely. You would most likely have a weak Islamist
government that would try to come to terms with other
groups - no faction is strong enough to impose its will
on others, so most likely there would be compromise,"
said Nidhal.
Nidhal sees hypocrisy in the
current proposal. "If the Americans are warning Iran
that reformists should not be barred from elections
there, then why should there be a double standard?" It
still remains unclear how Sistani's constituency would
react if elections are not held and how Sistani might be
persuaded to accept some sort of compromise.
"This demonstration is the first step to finding
peace," said Allaa al-Safar as he marched behind a group
of men holding aloft pictures of Sistani. "At first we
will use peaceful methods, and we will always come with
a flower in one hand. If they don't accept what we want,
it will be an illegal government. It will be a shame
because it will continue on like Saddam's government."
The GC and CPA have had meetings with Sistani during the
past months to try and persuade him to drop his demands.
"I've seen him twice and I know the man and he's
not the type to create any problems," said Mahmoud
Othman, one of the GC members. "Of course what he's
saying is not something which we are against - the only
difference is that we say now we cannot do that, because
of the security situation and because there is no
census, and because we are under occupation. No matter
what you do people will say it is illegitimate. It's a
matter of time."
The UN has also expressed a
desire to be involved in some way, which Sistani
supports. "We are taking steps, but a census takes a few
months, at least," Othman said. "They are studying it at
the Ministry Planning. They are going to give a report
to us."
In the past, the Ministry of Planning
has been responsible for taking censuses and holding
referendums. But deputy planning minister Faiq Ali Abdul
Rassoul said that no money had been allotted in the
ministry's budget to conduct a census and that no
research was being conducted.
"I have requested
funding from European countries, but there has been no
response," he said. Rassoul was weary of answering
questions that had implications on the current political
situation, but said that it would be tough to use the
oil for food ration cards to conduct elections because
many people signed up more than once and because the
cards only identify heads of families by name. However,
asked if it were possible to hold elections in the given
time, all Rassoul said was: "It's not a technical
question, it's a political one."
(Copyright 2004
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