|
|
| |
US on alert over Middle East
shuffles
By Adam Wolfe
On
January 6, Syrian President Bashar Assad began a
landmark visit to Ankara. It was only six years ago that
these countries were at the brink of a war when Ankara
accused Damascus of sheltering Kurdish militants. This
crisis was averted when Damascus expelled Abdullah
Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdish guerrilla group known
as the Kurdistan Workers' Party, after having offered
him sanctuary for nearly two decades. This was one year
after Turkey and Israel had signed a military
cooperation agreement, and Syria wanted to avoid having
two enemies on its borders. Since then, the two
countries have been pursuing better diplomatic
relations.
There have been major obstacles along
the way. Syria's outstanding territorial claim over
Turkey's southern province of Hatay, which was ceded to
Ankara in 1939 by Damascus when the French ruled Syria,
has been a major sticking point for both parties. Syria
has also accused Turkey of withholding its share of
water from the Euphrates River, which originates in
Turkey. However, the US occupation of Iraq has helped to
accelerate the diplomatic process between the two
countries.
Both countries fear that the Kurds of
northern Iraq may be moving towards independence.
Damascus and Ankara have criticized the Iraqi agreement
where the Kurds will be allowed to keep their autonomy
within a sovereign Iraq. Assad told the CNN-Turk news
station: "We are opposed not only to a Kurdish state,
but also to any action against the territorial integrity
of Iraq. For [these] reasons, the breakup of Iraq would
be a red line, not only as far as Syria and Turkey are
concerned, but for all the countries in the region."
Turkey and Syria are worried that an independent Kurdish
state would attempt to cut into their borders, or
inspire a Kurdish uprising within their states. This is
a scenario that could threaten to derail Turkey's push
for European Union membership.
Since the
November 2002 election of the Islamist-based Justice and
Development Party in Turkey, Ankara has looked to
strengthen itself within the Middle East, while pushing
through the reforms required for EU membership in an
attempt to reinforce economic relationships with Middle
Eastern countries and to curtail the perception that it
is giving up its Muslim roots for Western and secular
values. Syria has attempted to fortify its regional ties
as well, since the US threatened in April 2003 to apply
economic, diplomatic and other sanctions if Syria does
not take the proper steps to combat terrorism and halt
the spread of weapons of mass destruction. In Turkey,
Syria finds a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
member and an ally of Israel. Turkey will provide
important access to the wider world as American
pressures increase.
If Syria builds on its
burgeoning relationship with Turkey, the Bush
administration will find it increasingly difficult to
enforce its hardline policy of accusing Syria of
supporting international terrorism and of failing to
stop the movement of Islamic militants into Iraq.
Assad's calls for peace with Israel in an interview with
Britain's Daily Telegraph may not have been taken
seriously by many in Israel, but, with a partner in
Ankara, Syria has begun to take steps in this direction.
Washington's approach to Damascus will have to be
flexible enough to account for Syria's new attempts to
reach out to regional powers.
Iran
The
resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and
Egypt will further complicate Washington's approach to
the region. Iran and Egypt severed diplomatic relations
in 1979 after Tehran condemned Egyptian president Anwar
Sadat for signing the Camp David peace accords with
Israel. In the late 1980s, they resumed contact, but at
a low level. In December 2003, Egyptian President Hosni
Mubarak and Iranian President Mohammad Khatami met on
the sideline of a United Nations meeting in Geneva to
discuss the normalization of relations. Then, on January
6, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi told
alJazeera television: "The decision to restore relations
has been taken, and in the coming days, inshallah
[God willing], we will see the resumption of our
relations." Abtahi later stated that there are still a
few "questions of protocol" to be worked out, but "the
important steps have been taken".
Iran's
strengthening of its ties to Egypt, a US ally in the
Bush administration's "war on terrorism" and recipient
of nearly US$2 billion of US aid annually, will give
Tehran greater strength in negotiations with the US. The
Bush administration indicated on January 9 that it
wanted to talk with Iran about its nuclear program,
human rights and terrorism in the Middle East, but Iran
declined what they viewed as a lopsided proposal.
Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said: "Right now there
are no plans to commence a dialogue. What is important
is mutual respect and the principle of equality, in a
healthy atmosphere without violence. For that to happen,
the United States must change its policy to Iran."
After Iran accepted US aid following the
earthquake in the ancient city of Bam, many within the
Bush administration saw an opening for a dialogue
between the two countries. Instead, Iran refused every
official call for discussions since. If Iran and Egypt
resume diplomatic relations, the window for Washington's
hardlined discussions will narrow even further. The Bush
administration may have to rely on a softer stance and
use its European and Russian partners to open the
dialogue with Tehran.
Libya
Reports
that Libya and Israel met to discuss establishing
diplomatic ties represents another step in Libya's
attempt to appease the West and open its borders to
foreign investment. It was reported that Ron Prosor, an
advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, met with
a Libyan representative in Paris in December. Ephraim
Sneh, an Israeli opposition lawmaker, claims to have met
with Muammar Gaddafi's son and probable heir, Saif
al-Islam Gaddafi, at a conference in August. Although
both Israel and Libya have officially denied that the
meetings have taken place, Ra'anan Gissin, a senior
advisor to Sharon, said: "Libya clearly feels that the
road to the White House passes through Israel." Libya
has never recognized Israel, and has condemned Egypt and
Jordan for doing so. The establishment of diplomatic
ties between the two countries would be a landmark shift
for both governments.
Now that Libya has agreed
to disband its weapons of mass destruction programs and
after the UN and the EU drop their sanctions against
Libya, Washington is going to find it difficult to
maintain its tough stance against the North African
state. The Bush administration's calls for concrete
evidence of Libya's cooperation with weapons inspectors
before discussing the dropping of US sanctions may have
to be softened if Libya finds a strategic partner in
Israel. This would accelerate Tripoli's efforts to open
their country to foreign investment and perhaps the
liberalization of their economy.
Conclusion
The start of 2004 is
showing signs of significant shifts in the Middle East.
Syria, Iran and Libya are strengthening their diplomatic
ties with the regional allies of Washington. Each
country is looking to solidify its negotiating position
in respect to the US's toughened stance towards each of
their governments. Washington is going to find it
difficult to conduct power politics in the region if
rogue states start cooperating with international
demands. A more flexible approach may be necessary to
maintain productive ties to the US's allies.
The
US may have to use its regional allies (Turkey, Egypt
and Israel), the EU, NATO and Russia to a greater extent
than they have since the buildup to the invasion of Iraq
if they want to enter into negotiations with the
countries it considers sponsors of terrorism in the
Middle East. A softer and more flexible approach, using
the new ties established by each country, may lead to
the administration achieving its goal of ending state
sponsored terrorism in the region and a brighter
economic and diplomatic future for the Middle East as a
whole.
Published with permission of the
Power
and Interest News Report, an
analysis-based publication that seeks to provide insight
into various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed to
content@pinr.com
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
