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'Al-Qaeda' missive holds mixed
message
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - A letter purportedly written to
senior al-Qaeda leaders by a key associate, Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, appears to undermine a major thesis of
hardcore neo-conservatives who led the United States
drive to war in Iraq.
The letter, which is
essentially an appeal for help in launching a "sectarian
war" against Iraq's Shi'ite Muslim population, was
circulated by the Pentagon after it was allegedly found
on a compact disc in a raid on a safe house in Baghdad
on January 23 that netted a prominent courier of the
al-Qaeda terrorist group. It was leaked to the New York
Times, which reported on it February 10.
US war
planners clearly saw the 17-page letter as confirmation
that their strategy for pacifying Iraq, particularly the
so-called Sunni triangle, was working. Its quick
declassification and wide dissemination suggested that
the message was one that the Pentagon was eager to get
out, precisely because it corresponded to the military's
own claims that it was grinding down the armed
opposition in the occupied country.
The writer,
identified by the Pentagon as Zarqawi, a Palestinian
Jordanian who the administration has long alleged is
closely linked to al-Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden,
admits that the US-led occupation is making steady
progress. "There is no doubt that our field of movement
is shrinking and the grip around the throat of the
mujahideen has begun to tighten," the letter states.
"With the spread of the army and police, our future is
becoming frightening."
The author takes credit
for 25 "martyrdom operations" directed against Shi'ite
targets and US and other coalition forces, suggesting
that foreign Islamist fighters, rather than indigenous
groups, might indeed be responsible for suicide
bombings, as the US military has argued.
The
letter writer also reports that his forces are planning
to carry out more attacks against Iraqi military and
security forces. Since the letter's date, suicide
attacks against these targets have indeed escalated
sharply.
So far so good.
At the same
time, however, the letter, excerpts of which were
published by the Project for the New American Century
and the Weekly Standard, tends to debunk several of the
neo-conservatives' own myths.
First, it contains
no suggestion at all of any pre-existing cooperation or
relationship between ousted Iraqi president Saddam
Hussein and either Zarqawi or al-Qaeda, as the
neo-conservatives have long contended.
It
expresses great disappointment at the absence of
al-Qaeda in Iraq, a disappointment that undermines the
administration's insistence that it is that group that
is behind a growing number of attacks in Iraq. Indeed,
the tone suggests, according to Iraq expert Juan Cole of
the University of Michigan, that the writer, if it is
Zarqawi, has not been in close contact with al-Qaeda for
quite some time.
More important, the letter's
thrust - the necessity for carrying out attacks against
Shi'ite Muslims in Iraq - serves also to undermine a
major neo-conservative thesis: that Islamist extremists
work together to accomplish their goals regardless of
their own sectarian affiliation.
This "terror
masters" thesis - named for the book, The War Against
the Terror Masters, by the theory's foremost
Washington proponent, Michael Ledeen of the American
Enterprise Institute (AEI) - argues that Western
intelligence agencies have been naive to think that
Shi'ite groups like Hezbollah and Iran would not work
closely with extremist Sunni groups, like al-Qaeda or
Zarqawi's network, because of their sectarian
differences. In Ledeen's view, they all form one
"coherent terror network" in which Iran plays the
dominant role.
Among others, Richard Perle -
also based at AEI but better known for his close ties to
Vice President Dick Cheney and the Pentagon's civilian
leadership - has publicly propounded this thesis. "The
terror network is more complex, and far more united,
than most of our analysts have been willing to accept,"
Perle wrote last September in an article in National
Review Online. "The divisions and distinctions of the
past no longer make sense; the terror mafias are working
together, and their missions are defined by the states
that protect, arm, fund and assist them: Iran, Syria and
Saudi Arabia."
According to Ledeen, Iran is the
"linchpin of the terror network", and routinely hosts or
organizes meetings of the network's major leaders.
Tehran has strongly denied any connection or support to
al-Qaeda or any other radical Sunni group.
In
his September article, Ledeen wrote that Tehran hosted a
terrorist summit last August that included Hezbollah's
chief of operations Imad Mughniyah; Zarqawi; al-Qaeda's
number two Ayman al-Zawarhiri; bin Laden's son Saad, and
Iranian intelligence officials. Zarqawi promptly
relocated to Iraq several days later, presumably to
begin carrying out operations of the kind that he
reports in the January 23 letter, Ledeen added.
The problem with that theory is that the letter
attributed to Zarqawi fails to provide even the
slightest hint of an Iranian connection, and
consistently refers to the Shi'ite population in Iraq -
to which Iran has long provided strong support - as if
it, perhaps even more than Washington, is the ultimate
enemy.
"The Shi'ite have declared a subtle war
against Islam," the letter states. "Even if the
Americans are also an arch-enemy, the Shi'ite are a
greater danger and their harm more destructive to the
nation than that of the Americans."
"They are
the most cowardly people God has created. Killing their
leaders will weaken them and with the death of the head,
the whole group dies," Zarqawi writes of the Shi'ites,
whose religion he describes as a "perverse sect".
Such references to Shi'ites and the lack of any
reference at all to Iran in such a long letter, Cole
told Inter Press Services, simply add to the view among
most regional specialists both in and outside the US
government that Ledeen's "terror master" theory is as
questionable as the notion of an operational link
between Saddam and al-Qaeda.
"The document
undermines all the conspiracy theories about Iranian
support for al-Qaeda or an al-Qaeda-Hezbollah link,"
says Cole. "The Iranians would as soon shoot those
people [Zarqawi and al-Qaeda] as look at them."
In that respect, the letter and its widespread
distribution, particularly by neo-conservative groups
and publications, mark a potentially serious setback to
those in and out of the administration who have adopted
Ledeen's view.
Not coincidentally, it is the
same group, both within and outside the administration,
which argued before the war that Saddam and al-Qaeda
were closely linked. The same group has been the major
obstacle to any steps by Washington to improve relations
with Tehran since talks were suspended last May, after
an al-Qaeda attack on a Western compound in Tehran that
US officials charged had been ordered from somewhere in
Iran.
(Inter Press Service)
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