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Desperately seeking solutions in
Iraq
United Nations Secretary
General Kofi Annan says that direct elections could be
held by the end of the year in Iraq if key security and
technical conditions were met, but the US proposal to
hold regional political caucuses to elect a transitional
government is unacceptable. Meanwhile, Iraq's US
administrator, L Paul Bremer, has ruled out elections
there for at least another year. These discrepancies and
uncertainties beg one simple question: if there is no
transitional government by June 30, just who will take
over from the occupying power on that date?
In a
report issued this week based on the visit to Iraq this
month by a UN electoral group headed by envoy Lakhdar
Brahimi, Annan says a series of extensive administrative
and technical changes are needed before elections can be
held, but the prospect of holding them this year is not
entirely unrealistic. Chief UN elections adviser Carina
Perelli told reporters in New York that Iraqi officials
must reach a political consensus on the "roadmap" for
elections before the process can begin: "We have come to
the conclusion that once those basic agreements [on an
election framework] are reached among the Iraqis, it
would take at least eight months to be able to conduct a
credible, well-organized election."
Annan's
report recommends that Iraqis immediately set up an
independent electoral commission. Perelli said the
autonomy of such a body is essential, given Iraq's
recent history in which any elections were manipulated
by former leader Saddam Hussein. "Because of the
distrust that exists, probably an independent electoral
commission, completely set up anew for this interim
election, will be ... more credible for Iraqi voters
than just a sort of division or department of Ministry
of Interior," she said.
Perelli said security
conditions will pose a serious challenge. But she said
UN election monitors have guided countries through
"rough" conditions before, such as East Timor in 1999.
Perelli said the sooner Iraqis have ownership of the
electoral process the quicker they will defend their
right to vote. "Obviously, elections under violence are
not an alternative that I recommend in abstract, but
it's very difficult to know what the situation is going
to be once this process is launched," Perelli said.
Annan reiterated that the UN is ready to help
Iraq prepare elections once the US hands over power to
Iraqis on June 30, in terms of a UN resolution passed
last year following the invasion of the country.
Speaking in Japan, Annan also stressed the importance of
finding a broadly accepted formula for choosing a
caretaker government in Iraq: "We need to find a
mechanism, working of course with the Iraqis, helping
the Iraqis determine a mechanism for establishing an
interim or transitional government so that the transfer
of power, which is anticipated on the 30th of June, will
go ahead and that we work with them to organize
elections in the not too distant future."
In an
interview that aired on Saturday on the al-Arabiyah
television channel, Bremer, head of the US-led Coalition
Provisional Authority (CPA), echoed Annan, saying a
number of technical problems have to be resolved before
any direct poll could be held.
"The most
important problems are technical ones, as UN specialists
pointed out when they were here," Bremer said. "Iraq has
no election law, it has no electoral commission to even
establish a law, it has no law governing political
parties, it has no voters' lists, it has not had a
credible, reliable census in almost 20 years, there are
no constituent boundaries to decide where elections
would take place."
But Bremer chose to ignore
Annan's more optimistic forecast - holding elections by
the end of 2004 - saying the UN estimates that it will
all take at least a year to fix. "These technical
problems will take time to fix, the UN estimates
somewhere between a year to 15 months," Bremer said. "It
might be that it could be sped up a little bit, but
there are real important technical problems why
elections are not possible, as [UN] Secretary General
[Kofi Annan] announced."
UN passes on
political caucus plan
As part of its plan to hand
over political power to an Iraqi transitional government
by June 30, the CPA proposed holding US-style regional
political caucuses to elect a home-grown transitional
government in Iraq. But the UN fact-finding team deemed
this plan unacceptable, saying the caucus-style system
proposed by the CPA "does not appear to enjoy sufficient
support among Iraqis to be a viable option".
The
idea of caucuses - familiar to US voters choosing party
candidates for presidential elections - was criticized
by most Iraqis as a concept totally alien to the Arab
world. Powerful Shi'ite leader Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani
has not only rejected the proposal for caucuses but was
the leading voice demanding direct nationwide elections
for a new government in Baghdad by June 30. Brahimi, who
met Sistani in Iraq last week, seems to have persuaded
the cleric to agree to a temporary postponement of
elections - primarily for logistical reasons. In an
interview on Friday, Sistani hinted that he might accept
a short delay in electing a permanent government.
Ticking time bomb?
The UN's
recommendations for delayed elections coincided with a
statement Monday by another senior Shi'ite cleric who
warned that any postponement would be a "time bomb that
could explode at any minute ... Without elections, our
national institutions will remain shaken, unrecognized
and distrusted by the people," Grand Ayatollah Mohammed
Taqi al-Modaresi told reporters.
Asked about the
possibility of a civil war in Iraq after June 30,
Brahimi said, "I am little bit disturbed and I am a
little bit uneasy because there are very, very serious
dangers ... I would like to appeal to every Iraqi in
every part of Iraq to be conscious of the fact that
civil wars are not started by people through a decision
that, you know, 'tomorrow we are going to start a civil
war'."
The future of Iraq
While it is
clear that the UN feels elections are not possible by
June 30 and caucuses are unacceptable to the Iraqi
people, what is still uncertain is who will take over
from the departing CPA. At a press conference in Baghdad
last week, Brahimi was asked his opinion about which
group should hold sovereignty between June 30 and
whenever elections are held.
"I think the only
thing I know is that we are talking about something
provisional, something that is not going to last very
long, something that is not going to have extensive
powers," he said. "But I'm afraid that I haven't come to
any conclusions there. On the authority that will
receive sovereignty on June 30, discussions are still
going on and the consensus is not there," Brahimi said.
In its report, the UN team says the world body
would be willing to help build consensus among Iraqis on
the specific powers, structure and composition of a
provisional governing body, and could provide advisory
services and technical assistance for the electoral
process. Ultimately, the Iraqi people must decide on
these issues and implement them, the report stresses.
"They are more than capable of doing so."
But
the US has said that whether or not a new transitional
government is ready, the CPA will abdicate political
power by June 30. Many observers have speculated that US
President George W Bush does not want Iraq to be a
political liability during his run for a second term in
presidential elections scheduled for November.
(Asia Times Online, with additional reporting by
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Inter Press Service)
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