COMMENT New lease on life for the
insurgency By Erich Marquardt
In an effort to reduce casualties among United
States forces, the Bush administration has decided to
pull US troops out of central Baghdad and place them on
the outskirts of the city. This ring formation follows
the administration's pattern of concern over how the US
electorate will respond if US casualties continue to
mount as November polls approach. Iraq's Civil Defense
Corps has been charged with filling the vacuum.
The number of US military bases in Baghdad has
already been dramatically reduced, now down to 26 from a
high of 60. The Pentagon plans to diminish this number
to eight by the middle of April. Even though US troop
influence has been decreasing in Baghdad, the level of
attacks against the US-led coalition and US-trained
Civil Defense Corps and police forces has continued
largely unabated, not to mention Tuesday's attacks on
Shi'ite worshippers. Even so, the Bush administration is
hoping that the Civil Defense Corps and police will be
able to at least prevent the insurgency from growing any
more powerful than it already has.
At
present, only 8,000 police patrol Baghdad, a city of 5.5
million people that probably should be policed by 19,000;
hoping to reach this number, Washington has been training
about 1,000 new policemen each month. This program stirred
US Brigadier-General Martin Dempsey to say that Iraq's
police and Civil Defense Corps "are capable of handling
the threat" inside the city of Baghdad.
Taking
into account the violence on the ground in Baghdad,
Dempsey's hope appears naive. As US forces pull out of
the city, it will embolden the insurgency and cause them
to launch more spectacular attacks, such as the one on
February 14 when guerrillas stormed an Iraqi police
station, freeing nearly a hundred prisoners. In the
process, they managed to kill about 20 policemen. If, at
the time, there were a heavy US troop presence near the
police station, this attack would have been much more
difficult to mount since US forces simply have too many
resources at their disposal for the insurgency to
contend with.
Therefore, by relying more on Iraqis to fight Iraqis,
the administration of US President George W Bush may be
giving ample time for the insurgency to better organize
and plan new stunning methods of attack. Having less to
fear from attacking Iraqi police and members of the
Civil Defense Corps, it is likely that attacks against
such targets will escalate and become more successful.
The frequent attacks on policemen in recent
weeks highlight the insurgents' plan. The goal of the
insurgency is to destroy Washington's mission of
establishing a successful Iraqi political and societal
structure. They hope to continue to weaken Washington's
plans to the point where the Bush administration will be
so politically weakened domestically that the
possibility of US troops pulling out of Iraq will
increase.
The insurgency also hopes that if it
continues to create anarchy, the Iraqi population will
become enraged with Washington's attempts at bringing
stability. Already subjected to violence and large-scale
attacks not seen even in the days of Saddam Hussein,
Iraq's population has remained a tinder box of
impatience and anxiety due to the failure of the Bush
administration to bring peace and stability to the
country.
If the insurgency is not stopped, the
US-led occupation could become so unpopular that it
could lead more Iraqis over to the side of the
insurgency. Increasing attacks on US troops would create
a difficult domestic situation for Washington's leaders,
possibly forcing them to pull troops out of the chaotic
country - a decision that would be eerily similar to the
political failure that occurred during US involvement in
Vietnam.
If US troops were to pull out of Iraq,
it would create yet another power vacuum that the
disparate insurgent groups would attempt to fill.
Furthermore, many of Iraq's ethnic differences would
likely become quickly accentuated, raising the specter
of civil war and ethnic violence.
Published
with permission of thePower and
Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into various
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