THE ROVING
EYE Get Osama - but where, and
when? By Pepe Escobar
Asia
Times Online has learned from tribal-connected sources
in Peshawar in Pakistan that Osama bin Laden is believed
to have left southeastern Afghanistan late last week for
South Waziristan in Pakistan. According to the sources,
and as has been reported in sections of the Pakistani
Urdu Press, bin Laden is said to be under the protection
of concentric rings formed by dozens of al-Qaeda
fighters and more than 1,200 Taliban - all easily
blended in as local Pashtun tribals.
This means
that bin Laden and his entourage were previously hiding
in Paktika province in Afghanistan, and may have crossed
to South Waziristan via the Khand pass - in the
easternmost flank of the rugged Toba Kakar mountain
range, where the weather is unforgiving and the
desolation extreme: the nearest town is Wana, in the
Pakistani tribal area of South Waziristan.
This information, if confirmed, also contradicts reports of
a previous bin Laden sighting, already reported in
Asia Times Online, according to which the fugitives - in
much smaller number - were placed further south, between
the tiny villages of Khanozai and Murgha Faqirzai,
in Balochistan province. So bin Laden was not in
Kunar province in Afghanistan or in Pakistani Balochistan,
but in an Afghan province, Paktika, where every day
there are clashes between Taliban and US forces.
The Peshawar sources confirm numerous
local reports that bin Laden and his close entourage have
come practically face-to-face with US patrols on
several occasions in the past few weeks in Paktika - so
they had to find a safer refuge.
But it could
be a case of out of the frying pan into the fire. US
Commando 121, headed by General William Boykin, with
input from the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI), is preparing to pounce. According to the ISI
version currently circulating in Peshawar, the bin Laden
group was located through an intercepted satellite phone
call. Al-Qaeda has not used satphones in the Pak-Afghan
border since December 2001, but Taliban commanders still
frequently do.
What the ISI rumor mill is
actually disseminating in the axis of Islamabad-Peshawar
is that now they seem to know exactly where bin Laden
and his group of fugitives are hiding. The ISI has even
laid out the overall strategy: apply maximum pressure on
Pashtun tribals in the Wana area, squeeze the fugitives
out of access to food, water and crucial supplies, and
then attack them en masse by about mid-March.
Pashtun ISI operatives are supposed to be
blending in with the tribals to gather local
intelligence before the final assault. The ISI-concocted
endgame would be to capture bin Laden inside Pakistani
territory, and then move him to Afghanistan - where the
big news would be announced by Commando 121, or by
Afghan President Hamid Karzai, or by both.
Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman
Masood Khan has admitted on the record that "a
special operation" will soon begin in Wana to capture al-Qaeda
and Taliban fighters. But he has vehemently denied that
at least 11,000 US troops and Special Forces will
be fighting along with the Pakistani army. "If they
come, they will remain on the other side of the border
in Afghanistan and only Pakistani troops will take part
in the 'special operation' on our side." Pakistan
has already deployed more than 70,000 troops to the Pak-Afghan
border, and more are planned.
Independent sources in Peshawar tell Asia Times Online that
the whole arrangement may be part of a secret deal
discussed face-to-face last week between US Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and President General Pervez
Musharraf. The Pakistanis do the hard work to capture bin Laden
in the volatile, tribal Pakistani side - helping
Commando 121 and other Special Forces. But the big news will
come from Afghanistan. Understandably, the director
general of Inter-Services Public Relations, Major-General
Shaukat Sultan, vehemently denied on Pakistani TV any
suggestion of a deal.
Interior Minister Syed Saleh Hayat
admits that a huge operation is already going on in
Wana, saying: "We have secured our borders as far as it
is possible. On the other side of the border, in
Afghanistan ... US government and coalition forces and
even NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] are
increasing their forces." But the interior minister
regards the tribal whereabouts of bin Laden as "mere
speculation ... According to intelligence reports and
our own assessment, it seems that Osama and his chief
lieutenant may be present in this area. But this is not
the final word."
Which begs the
question: Does anybody really know where Osama is hiding? As
to the final word, the whole point is to determine when
the Pentagon and the White House want bin Laden
captured: now - eight months before the US presidential
election - or in October, just before the polls.
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